| 试论德尔菲法在公安情报学中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 李淑华,孔珊珊.试论德尔菲法在公安情报学中的应用[J].中国人民武装警察部队学院学报,2009,25(5):11-13. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李淑华 孔珊珊 |
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| 作者单位： | 李淑华,LI Shu-hua(中国人民公安大学公安情报学系,北京,100038);孔珊珊,KONG Shan-shan(河南省郑州市公安局国保支队,河南郑州,450003)
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| 摘 要： | 德尔菲法又称专家调查法或专家咨询法，将其引入公安情报学中，对于事关公安工作长远的、战略的、宏观的问题进行预测和评价，对提高公安情报成果质量、提升情报工作水平具有重要意义。试从德尔菲法的定义、由来、特点、程序等基本原理入手，阐明该方法在公安情报学中的应用技巧，同时指出使用该方法应注意的事项以及其自身存在的不足。
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| 关 键 词： | 德尔菲法 专家 调查 公安情报 |
On the Application of Delphi's Approach to the Intelligence of Public Security |
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| LI Shu-hua,KONG Shan-shan.On the Application of Delphi''s Approach to the Intelligence of Public Security[J].Journal of the Chinese People's Armed Police Force Academy,2009,25(5):11-13. |
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| Authors: | LI Shu-hua KONG Shan-shan |
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| Institution: | LI Shu - hua , KONG Shan - shan ( 1. Department of Public Security and Information Science, Chinese People＇ s Public Security University, Beijing 100038, China; 2. Public Security Bureau of Zhengzhou, Zhengzhou, He＇ nan Province 450003, China) |
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| Abstract: | Delphi＇ s approach, also termed as expert consultant approach, is of great significance to enhance the quality of the intelligence of public security concerning the prediction and evaluation of long - term, strategical and general issues. This paper explains the application of some practical techniques of Delphi＇ s approach in the intelligence of the public security in terms of the definition, the origin, the characteristics and process of Delphi＇ s approach. |
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| Keywords: | Delphi＇ s approach experts investigation intelligence of public security |
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