预报风强度对火箭最大气动载荷精度影响及建模分析

针对不同预报风强度的精度以及其对应的最大气动载荷预报值精度的研究文献极少。以某地区实况风为基准，分别对不同预报风强度的精度以及其对应的最大气动载荷预报值精度特征进行了分析，并利用多元线性回归方法建立了订正模型，结果表明在预报日数第1～11天，预报风强度越大，预报风精度及其对应的最大气动载荷预报值精度越高；利用多元线性回归方法可提高最大气动载荷预报值精度，且预报风强度越小，最大气动载荷预报精度提高越明显。这些发现在火箭发射前的飞行保障及安全决策方面具有参考价值。

Influence of forecasting wind intensity on rocket maximum aerodynamic load accuracy and modeling analysis

In order to solve the problems of very few research literatures on the accuracy of different forecast wind intensity and the corresponding accuracy of the maximum aerodynamic load forecast value, the accuracy characteristics of different forecast wind intensity and the corresponding maximum aerodynamic load forecast value were respectively analyzed on the basis of the actual wind in a certain area, and the multiple linear regression method was used to establish a revised model. The results show that within 1～11 days of forecasting days, the greater the forecast wind intensity, the higher the forecast wind accuracy and the corresponding maximum aerodynamic load forecast value accuracy. Using the multiple linear regression method can improve the accuracy of the maximum aerodynamic load forecast, and the smaller the forecast wind intensity, the more obvious the improvement of the forecast accuracy of the maximum aerodynamic load. These findings have reference value in the flight assurance and safety decision-making of rocket launch.