贝叶斯网络下考虑攻击企图的目标威胁评估

为解决舰艇编队的防空目标威胁评估问题,针对现有威胁评估方法中忽略目标攻击企图,且只进行静态评估而未考虑目标机动导致的运动参数变化对威胁评估的影响之不足,提出了利用目标攻击时所表现出来的特征参数进行攻击企图估计,并分析了影响机动目标威胁程度的相关参数和变量,以目标信息更新周期为不同时间片,建立了用于动态评估目标威胁度的离散模糊动态贝叶斯网络结构模型。为适应编队防空中火力通道多、目标批次多的特点,将一般威胁等级从3级划分扩展为5级划分。给出了网络中主要节点的状态转移概率表和条件概率表。通过对机动目标按照典型攻击航路的威胁度变化仿真表明,所建立的模型和采用的方法合理有效,能够较为准确地反映目标威胁,贴近实战。

Threat Assessment with Attack Attempt of Target Based on Bayesian Network

The threat assessment in air defense of fleet is studied.The existing assessment methods are unsatisfing without considering the attack attempt and maneuver of target.To solve this,a method to estimate the attack attempt of target by wse of the characteristic parameter during its attack procedure is proposed.And the attack procedure is divided into some time slices a ccording to the data refresh rate.Thus the discrete fuzzy Dynamic Bayesian Network Model is established for dynamic threat assessment.In order to describe the threat level precisely,the three-level method is extended to five-level method.The states transfer probabilities and condition probability tables are given.A simulation example of a maneuvering target flying in typical attacking flight path is presented.The results show that the model and the method proposed are proper and effectiveness.