IMM-EKF的弹道导弹轨道实时动态预测

快速准确的导弹轨道预测是有效进行导弹防御的前提。提出一种基于IMM-EKF的弹道导弹轨道实时动态预测方法,对导弹发射点和落点分别进行动态预测研究。首先,构建不包含导弹先验信息的IMM-EKF弹道估计器;其次,定义一种模型概率累积因子,用于估计导弹的关机时刻及相应的运动状态;最后,基于导弹运动状态的实时估计,动态预测落点和发射点。仿真实验结果表明:该方法能实时动态预测导弹发射点和落点;发射点预测应利用主动段状态估计,而落点预测则在导弹自由段早期进行为宜。

The Dynamic Prediction of Ballistic Missile Trajectory in Real Time Based on IMM-EKF

The quick and accurate prediction of missile trajectory is the precondition of missile effective defense.A novel real-time and dynamical prediction method of ballistic missile trajectory with IMM-EKF was proposed to predict the missile’s launch point and impact point.First,an IMM-EKF trajectory estimator with no missile priori information was constructed;next,a model probability accumulation factor was defined,which is used in estimating missile’s engine burnout time and its corresponding state;finally,based on missile motion state estimation in real-time,the location of launch point and impact point are dynamically predicted.The simulation experiment results show that this method can effectively predict the launch point and impact point in real-time,and launch point prediction should use the missile state estimation in boost phase,while the impact point prediction is better carried on in the missile free early phase.