弹道导弹威胁估计模型构建

简要分析了弹道导弹飞行3个阶段的不同特点及各阶段导弹预警探测手段的侧重点,结合威胁估计的特征构建了弹道导弹威胁估计模型结构框架,运用多阶段贝叶斯网络理论,构造了主动段、自由段和再入段威胁估计模型,并明确了三阶段间的转换时机。采用动态贝叶斯方法对弹道导弹作战全过程进行威胁估计仿真推理,仿真结果能够反映导弹在飞行过程中威胁程度的变化特点,为反导指挥员作出辅助决策提供智力支持。

Research on Model Building of Ballistic Missile Threat Assessment

This paper briefly introduces different features in three phases of ballistic missile and focuses in different detection methods of missile early warning according to the features of threat assessment ,It establishes the threat assessment model pattern of ballistic missile. Through applying multi-phase Bayesian theory ,it builds a assessment model which includes boost phase,free phase,and re-entry phase and clarifies proper transformation opportunity among three phases. Besides ,it reasons and simulates the whole battle process of ballistic missile so as to get threat assessment results which reveals the traits of missiles regarding to changes during the flight and to offer intelligent assistance working as auxiliary decisions to commanders.