基于贝叶斯决策方法的项目管理能力评估研究

项目管理能力是评价科研单位是否具有牵头组织能力的重要指标之一。针对现有评价方法在稳定性、科学性方面的不足，以传统的科研项目管理能力评估方法为基础，引入贝叶斯理论，建立了贝叶斯决策评估模型，并利用实际案例验证了其在科研项目管理能力评估中的有效性。结果表明，该评估方法能够充分利用历史资料和专家意见，对初步评估结果进行再度评估，具有较强的客观性、准确性。

Research on the Project Management Capability Evaluation Based on Bayesian Decision Making

The capability of project management is an important index for evaluating the organi- zing competence of a scientific research institution. Aiming at the deficiency of existing evaluation method,and based on the traditional capability evaluation method of the project management, the Bayesian decision model is constructed, and a practical case is utilized to demonstrate the effective- ness of the proposed method. The results indicate that the evaluation method can make the best of the historical data and expert opinions for evaluating the preliminary results again with more ob- jectivity and accuracy.