| 灰色预测模型在非致命武器经济寿命预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐亮,代艳华.灰色预测模型在非致命武器经济寿命预测中的应用[J].武警工程学院学报,2010(4):28-30. |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐亮 代艳华 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]武警工程学院研究生管理大队,陕西西安710086 [2]武警工程学院建筑工程系,陕西西安710086 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对目前非致命武器经济寿命方面的研究相当缺乏的现状，结合非致命武器的自身特点，在全面分析装备全寿命周期费用的基础上，引入灰色理论，运用GM（1，1）模型对非致命武器的经济寿命周期费用进行估算和预测。通过分析，灰色预测模型具有较高的建模精度，预测方法和结果对非致命武器的经济寿命预测具有很强的实用性。
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| 关 键 词： | 非致命武器 GM（1 1）模型 经济寿命 费用估算 |
Application of Grey GM （1,1） Model in the Non -lethal Weapon Research Costs Forecasting |
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| XU Liang,DAI Yan-hua.Application of Grey GM （1,1） Model in the Non -lethal Weapon Research Costs Forecasting[J].Journal of Engineering College of Armed Police Force,2010(4):28-30. |
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| Authors: | XU Liang DAI Yan-hua |
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| Institution: | 1. Postgraduate Brigade ;2. Department of Architectural Engineering, Engineering College of CAPF, Xi ＇an 710086, China) |
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| Abstract: | At present, the cost estimation of non - lethal weapons is short of research. In this paper, the inherent characteristics of non - lethal weapons, the introduction of gray theory, the use of GM （ 1, 1 ） model of non - lethal weapons research and development cost estimation and prediction are presented. Through analysis, we can verifythat gray prediction model has a high modeling accuracy. The forecasting methods and results of non - lethal weapons research is of a certain reference value to estimate the lifespan of non - lethal weapons. |
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| Keywords: | non - lethal weapons GM （ 1 1 ） model research forecasting |
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