基于集对分析和LS-SVM的装备研制风险综合评价

【】为了有效防控武器装备的研制风险,确保武器装备项目的顺利推进,提出一种基于集对分析(SPA)理论与最小二乘支持向量机(LS-SVM)方法的装备研制风险综合评价方法。在该方法中,首先,根据武器装备研制的具体特点,建立了装备研制风险评价指标体系。然后,在此基础上,引入SPA分析理论中的联系度和集对概念构建了训练样本和测试样本。最后,使用获取的样本对LS-SVM进行训练和测试,得到装备研制风险评价模型,并据此给出评价结果。案例分析表明,所提出方法过程简便,定性定量结合,形式易于理解,评价结果也更加贴近实际,对于提升装备研制项目风险管理和决策水平,具有重要的实际意义。

Weapon System Development Risk Comprehensive AssessmentBased on Set Pair Analysis and LS-SVM

To effectively prevent and control the development risk of weapon equipment for smooth project progress, a comprehensive assessment method based on Set Pair Analysis (SPA) theory and Least Square Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM) method is proposed for weapon equipment development. In the method, firstly, according to the specific characteristics of weapon equipment development, the weapon equipment development risk assessment index system is established. Secondly, on the basis of this, the concept of connection degree and set pair in SPA theory is introduced to construct the training samples and test samples. Finally, through the obtained samples, LS-SVM is trained and tested to get the assessment model and give the assessment result. An example analysis shows that, the proposed method has many advantages in simple implement, combining qualitative and quantitative analysis, easy understanding. The assessment results are more close to the actual development. It has important practical significance to improve the risk management and decision-making level of weapon equipment development project.