Manpower modeling in cost effectiveness studies of usaf program to reduce the incidence of heart disease

Planning for a cardiovascular disease reduction program, soon to be initiated by the United States Air Force, has required an evaluation of its expected cost effectiveness. During the course of this evaluation, it was necessary to consider manpower flows and their expected changes in response to the disease reduction program. This paper describes several manpower models that were applied: a simple expected value equilibrium model; a cross-sectional model that considered the length of service of personnel; and a staffing model used to optimize the allocation of paramedics to the many Air Force bases of various sizes. The relevance of these models to the cost effectiveness evaluation is shown but the detailed cost effectiveness results are not presented.