基于Bow-tie模型的发动机空中停车事故分析与预防

发动机空中停车是航空事故主要致因之一。首先,通过数据梳理和分析,构建发动机空中停车故障树,结合重要度分析理论,求解各基本事件的重要度,得到造成发动机空中停车事件的最薄弱环节——供油系统故障。基于Bow-tie理论,构建发动机供油系统Bow-tie模型,直观地显示了该故障产生的根本原因和可能导致的后果,进而提出了预防该故障发生的对策建议,达到降低发动机空中停车事故概率的目的。

Research on Analysis and Prevention of In-flight Shutdown Based on Bow-tie

In-Flight Shutdown (IFSD) is one of the main reasons to cause aerial accidents.Firstly,Fault Tree of IFSD failure is constructed by combing and analyzing the data.Combined with analytical theory of importance degree,the importance degree of each basic incident is solved to acquire that it is failure of fuel supply system that causes the weakest link of IFSD.Based on theory of Bow-tie,the Bow-tie model of fuel supply system of engine is constructed,which intuitively demonstrates the fundamental reason and probable consequence of the failure.Then,counter measures of preventing the failure are proposed,which arrives at the aim to decrease the probability of IFSD accidents.