援潜救生进度风险分析

失事潜艇的援救要求在潜艇失事后48h内展开,综合考虑援救任务耗时的随机性和模糊性,将计划评审技术PERT(project evalution and review technique)和模糊概率分析结合起来,用以评估援潜救生任务的进度风险。首先,给出了单独使用PERT技术计算援潜救生准备工作在48h内完成的概率的基本算法;然后,将模糊概率分析引入PERT技术,求出援潜救生任务的关键路线,给出基于模糊PERT分析的完工概率算法;最后,以深潜救生艇从我国北方某基地转运至目的地实施救援任务为例,计算援潜救生准备工作在48h内完成的概率。计算结果的对比表明:使用模糊PERT分析方法比单独使用PERT技术得出的数据更为可靠。

Risk analysis of process of rescuing wrecked submarine

The rescue of a wrecked submarine must be carried out in 48 hours.For this purpose,this paper takes into consideration both the randomicity and fuzziness of the time consuming rescue work and associates the PERT technology with fuzzy probability analysis to calculate the probability of finishing the preparative work of rescuing the wrecked submarine.Firstly,the basic algorithm is pre-sented for calculating the probability that the preparative work must be finished in 48 h only by use of PERT.Secondly,the fuzzy probability analysis method is introduced to calculate the critical path of rescue and the algorithm of fuzzy PERT is presented.Finally,with task carried out by a DSRV(deep submergence rescue vehicle) transported from a navy base in north China to South China Sea as an example,the probability of finishing the preparative work of rescuing the wrecked submarine is analyzed.The results show that this sophisticated method can provide more reliable data than the PERT used alone.