批量独立可修件的备件需求预测仿真算法

利用Monte Carlo随机仿真技术,采用事件调度法的仿真策略对可修件的使用与维修过程进行仿真,给出了在给定备件和维修分队数量下批量独立可修件的备件保障概率仿真算法,并用一系列计算实例证明了算法的可行性和正确性,该算法能有效解决安装在不同装备上,具有不同已工作时间、不同故障间隔时间分布、不同修复时间分布的可修件的备件保障概率计算问题,为备件的科学储备提供了有力的决策依据。

A simulation algorithm of spares requirement estimation for repairable component in batches

With the aid of Monte Carlo simulation technique,the simulation algorithm of the probability of spares sufficiency for independent repairable item in batches was offered through simulating the process of use and maintaining of components under given limited spares and maintenance unit.The event scheduling method is the main tactic of the simulation program.The algorithm has proved to be feasible and valid by a series of examples.The algorithm can solve the problem of spares requirement estimation for those repairable items which take different time and distribution of time between failure and distribution of time to repair.It has provided a strong decision-making evidence for storing spares in a scientific way.