对目标打击概率的数学模型及分析

通过分析识别跟踪攻击目标的过程,建立了攻击目标打击概率的数学模型和基本算法,通过计算机采用蒙特卡罗法模拟计算了不同条件下对目标的打击概率,以此研究影响打击概率的因素.计算结果表明,武器系统的作战半径和威力半径两个因素对打击概率影响较大,误差因素在一定范围内影响较小,各参数之间存在优化匹配的空间.

Mathematical model of hit probability and its analysis

A mathematical model ofthe hit probability isconstructed by analysis, recognition and tracking of targets. The factors that affect the hit probability are studied by simulationcalculation via Monte-Carlo method under different conditions. The solution shows that the hit probability is mainly affected by the operational radius of action and radius of deterrent force, while it is less affected by the error in the definite ranges. There exists a range of optimum matching between various factors.