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The evaluation of a possible future Sino-Japanese armed conflict through the application of the ACEI-model |
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| Authors: | Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada Donghyun Park Jung Suk Kim |
| Affiliation: | 1. Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Economics, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur;2. Asian Development Bank (ADB), Mandaluyong City, Philippines;3. Institute of International and Area Studies, Sogang University, Seoul, Korea |
| Abstract: | There is relatively little formal modeling of the economic effects of armed conflicts even though they have substantial economic effects. We set forth a new model, namely the armed conflict economic impact model – ACEI-Model. The model looks at the economic effects of war in three different stages: (i) pre-conflict stage; (ii) armed conflict stage; and (iii) post-conflict stage. The model is based on economic desgrowth (-δ) and other new conceptual indicators. We evaluate an imaginary armed conflict between China and Japan by applying the ACEI-Model. |
| Keywords: | Armed conflict simulation PRC Japan Wartime economic modeling Policy modeling Economic desgrowth |