空间碎片碰撞风险评估模型及其应用

以现有的空间碎片环境模型为基础,建立了一套空间碎片风险评估模型。该模型包括空间碎片环境、航天器有限元建模、几何遮挡处理以及碰撞概率计算四个模块。为了验证风险评估模型的精度及有效性,针对机构间空间碎片协调委员会指定的三种标准工况,将该计算结果与国内外已有的风险评估模型的计算结果进行比较,验证了风险评估模型的正确性。利用开发的风险评估模型,对立方体航天器遭遇空间碎片碰撞风险进行仿真评估与分析,给出了轨道高度、倾角以及航天器自身的姿态参数对航天器遭遇空间碎片碰撞风险的影响特性。

Space debris impact risk assessment model and its application

In order to assess risks to spacecraft from debris impact, a space debris impact risk assessment model is developed on the basis of the existing space debris environment model. The framework of the model consists of space debris environment module, spacecraft model module, geometry shading module and impact probability module. The impact risk by space debris for three generic spacecraft geometries, which are offered by IADC in order to validate different models. The result is proved to be effective by comparing with other models. Finally, the space debris impact risk for the spacecraft of cube is assessed and analyzed using the developed risk assessment model, and the effect of orbital altitude, inclination and attitude parameters to the space debris impact risk is given out.