高速铁路网络延误传播分析

针对既有方法研究高速铁路网络中延误传播规律的局限性，基于高速列车实绩运行数据和列车时刻表数据构建站点延误传播贝叶斯网络模型。结合复杂网络中的渗流理论研究延误传播团簇的演变规律，并以最大延误传播团簇中的南京南站和第二大延误传播团簇中的长沙南站为例，分析处于渗流突变状态下的站点延误传播贝叶斯网络。提出基于核心延误传播团簇的站点延误状态预测模型。结果表明：网络中的站点可按延误传播特征分为延误发散站点、延误传递站点和延误消散站点。延误发散站点不仅能直接将延误传播至邻近站点，还能通过延误传播链将延误传播至较远地区的站点。由此网络以部分延误发散站点为中心向延误传递站点和延误消散站点进行“辐射式”延误传播。

Analysis of high-speed railway network delay propagation

Due to the existence of internal resistance and polarization, there will be a large voltage drop at the discharging moment of the lithium battery, especially the high-rate pulse-discharged lithium battery. The power characteristics of high-rate pulse-discharged lithium battery were studied, as well as the influence rules of temperature, state of charge and aging on battery power performance. The power characteristic curve of lithium battery was defined, a high-rate battery test plat-form was built, and experimental research was carried out from three impedance sensitive factors:temperature, state of charge and aging. The research methods and conclusions are of certain significance for the peak power evaluation and power curve prediction of lithium battery system.