The Tacit Evolution of Coordination and Strategic Outcomes in Highly Fragmented Insurgencies: Evidence from the Soviet War in Afghanistan |
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Authors: | Eric Jardine |
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Affiliation: | PhD Candidate, Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University , Ottawa , Canada |
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Abstract: | Highly fragmented insurgencies often lack explicit coordination mechanisms such as plans, direct means of communication, or hierarchical organization. Many such insurgencies nevertheless obtain a high degree of coordination that produces strategic-level effects. This article presents a theory of how coordination can emerge tacitly in highly fragmented insurgencies, and how this can produce strategic-level effects. Strategic effects emerge through a combination of complementary and supplementary tactical-level actions between commonly positioned insurgent groups. The theory is then tested again evidence from the Soviet–Afghan War. The evidence presented shows that some of the Mujahidin's strategic-level effectiveness was produced through tacit coordination. |
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Keywords: | Fragmented Insurgencies Strategic Outcomes Tacit Coordination Afghanistan Mujahidin Rural-urban Cleavage |
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