| 概率化认知控制模式下人为差错概率的量化方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 蒋英杰,孙志强,宫二玲,谢红卫. 概率化认知控制模式下人为差错概率的量化方法[J]. 国防科技大学学报, 2011, 33(6): 175-178 |
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| 作者姓名： | 蒋英杰 孙志强 宫二玲 谢红卫 |
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| 作者单位： | 国防科技大学机电工程与自动化学院,湖南长沙,410073 |
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| 摘 要： | 在现有成果的基础上,对CREAM方法中的人为差错概率量化进行了改进.介绍了CREAM基本法量化人为差错概率的基本思想；讨论了两种概率化认知控制模式的确定方法:贝叶斯网络法和模糊逻辑法,强调了概率化认知控制模式下量化人为差错概率的必要性.通过理论推导,构建了概率化认知控制模式下人为差错概率的量化方法.另外,为了提高计算效...
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| 关 键 词： | 人为差错概率 人因可靠性分析 CREAM基本法 Monte Carlo仿真 |
| 收稿时间： | 2011-01-15 |
The Method to Quantify Human Error Probability in Probabilistic Cognitive Control Mode |
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| JIANG Yingjie,SUN Zhiqiang,GONG Erling and XIE Hongwei. The Method to Quantify Human Error Probability in Probabilistic Cognitive Control Mode[J]. Journal of National University of Defense Technology, 2011, 33(6): 175-178 |
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| Authors: | JIANG Yingjie SUN Zhiqiang GONG Erling XIE Hongwei |
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| Affiliation: | (College of Mechatronics Engineering and Automation,National Univ.of Defense Technology,Changsha 410073,China) |
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| Abstract: | The quantification of human error probability in CREAM was improved based on available meterials. First, the basic method of CREAM was introduced. Second, two methods to determine probabilistic control modes were discussed, which are Bayesian nets and fuzzy logic. The necessity to quantify human error probability in probabilistic control modes was emphasized. Last, the method was proposed to quantify the human error probability in probabilistic control modes by theoretical inference. In order to improve the computing effectiveness, the Monte Carlo algorithm was provided. An example was presented and the validity of the proposed method was proved. |
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| Keywords: | human error probability human reliability analysis CREAM basic method Monte Carlo simulation |
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