装备战场损伤的解析分析方法研究

为了提高装备战损模拟的效率,以蒙特卡洛方法为基础,构建了关于装备战损的解析模型。首先采用序贯法优化了仿真次数,以便以较少的仿真次数获得较高的仿真精度;分析了单因素对于装备损伤的影响,并建立了一元回归模型;采用正交试验分析了多因素之间的交互作用,并综合一元回归模型得出了装备战损的多元回归模型;最后结合弹着点分布模型与多元回归模型,建立了装备战损的解析模型,并通过实例验证了解析模型的正确性。

Analytic Method of Equipment Battlefield Damage

In order to improve the efficiency of equipment battlefield damage simulation,an analytic model of battlefield damage is constructed based on Monte Carlo method.First the simulation amount is optimized by ordinal method,so the better simulation precision is obtained through fewer simulations.The effect of battlefield damage about single factor is analysed,and the unitary regression model is constructed.The mutual action between factors is analysed through orthogonal experiment,and the multianalysis regression model is constructed by synthesizing the unitary regression models.At last the analytic model of battlefield damage is constructed based on the distribution model of bomb and the multianalysis regression model,and the validity of analytic model is proved by an example.