基于灰色关联和D-S证据理论的导弹系统安全性评估

针对导弹系统安全性评价的不确定性问题,提出了将灰色关联和D-S证据理论相结合的方法,从人员安全性、设备安全性和环境安全性建立了综合评估指标体系,用灰色关联分析处理了指标之间的关联性。在传统证据合成公式的基础上,考虑证据集非关键因素的权重,给出了修正的证据合成公式。并以打靶选弹为例进行了计算分析,得出了导弹安全性优先级排序,并将改进算法与传统计算方法的结果进行了比较,验证了评价模型的可行性与实用性,为导弹系统的管理工作提供了有益的参考。

Security Calculation of Missile System Based on Grey Relation and D-S Evidence Theory

Considering the uncertainty question of missile system security assessment ,the combination method of grey relation and D-S evidence theory is proposed in this paper.The security assessment index is established from human,equipment and environment.The relation of different indexes is handled by grey relation analysing.A modified evidential reasoning algorithm is given by considering the weight of unimportant factor in the evidence collection based on the traditional evidential reasoning algorithm.An example of choosing missile in shooting practice is calculated and analysed,the priority ranking of missile security is obtained.the improved calculation method and the traditional method is compared together to see the difference of result,which verified the feasibility and practicability of the evaluation model,and some beneficial references are provided for the future management work of missile system.