停产雷达装备维修器材持续保障风险评估方法

针对停产雷达装备维修器材持续保障过程中存在的筹措断供问题,提出基于改进风险矩阵法和层次分析法相结合的风险评估方法。首先建立保障风险评估指标体系,然后采用改进的风险矩阵进行风险评估,利用采用层次分析法解决存在递归层次时风险因素的评估问题,最后得出装备器材持续保障风险的综合量化值,为提出保障风险规避策略提供数据依据。利用某型雷达器材保障风险评估案例进行数据分析,验证了该方法的有效性。

Research on Risk Assessment Method of Sustainable Support for the Production Halts Maintaining Equipment for Radar

Aiming at problems of interrupted supplying of maintaining equipment for radar while sustainable supporting,the risk assessment method based on combined improved risk matrix and analytical hierarchy process was put forward. The risk assessment index was founded. Then the risks were assessed using risk matrix,and problems of assessing risk factors were solved when recursive hierarchy existing by analytic hierarchy process. Finally comprehensive quantized value of risk on materials sustainable support was worked out,by which evasion policy of risk was supported. The method was proved effective,when analyzing data of the risk assessment example of radar materials support.