基于贝叶斯反馈云模型的空中目标威胁评估

在现代战争中,空袭与防空作战仍将是主要作战方式之一。对防空方而言,及早发现空袭目标、准确判断空袭意图,是合理分配火力、最大限度发挥自身抗击能力的基本前提。综合考虑了攻防双方及作战环境等因素的影响,建立空中目标威胁评估指标体系。采用云模型理论较好地处理了空袭的模糊性和随机性,通过贝叶斯反馈对专家主观认识差异进行修正,使专家意见更加统一,使威胁评估结果更为简洁合理,便于指挥员快速准确作出决策。

Air Target Threat Evaluation Based on Bayes Feedback-cloud Model

Air attack and Antiaircraft defense still will be one of chief operation method in the morden war.As to antiaircraft defense,finding the air attack objective early,judging the intention of the air attack accurately,are the utmost basic premise on which we assign firepower and exertive the ability of anti- shot as much as possibly. This article considers the influence of air attack,antiaircraft defense and battle environment etc,builds up an air target threat valuation sign system,adopt s cloud model theories to manage the faintness and random of the air attack with advantage,revises the difference of experts’s standpoint with Bayes feedback to make expert’s opinion consistent, make the threat analyzing result more simple and reasonable. It is convenient for a conductor make a quick and accurate decision.