| Monte-Carlo法在含缺陷管道腐蚀失效概率评定中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘晓东,李著信. Monte-Carlo法在含缺陷管道腐蚀失效概率评定中的应用[J]. 后勤工程学院学报, 2007, 23(2): 25-28,32 |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘晓东 李著信 |
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| 作者单位： | 后勤工程学院军事供油工程系,重庆,400016;后勤工程学院军事供油工程系,重庆,400016 |
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| 摘 要： | 腐蚀是引起管道事故的一个主要原因,我国在役长输管道大部分腐蚀严重,因此有必要对含缺陷管道的腐蚀失效概率进行评定.由于B31G规范评定结果偏于保守,因此采用修正的B31G规范对腐蚀缺陷进行评定,考虑到腐蚀缺陷有关参数的不确定性,利用Monte-Carlo法计算含缺陷管道的腐蚀失效概率.通过对一段实际管道腐蚀失效概率的计算,验证了Monte-Carlo法的可行性.
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| 关 键 词： | Monte-Carlo 管道 腐蚀 失效概率 评定 风险分析 |
| 文章编号： | 1672-7843(2007)02-0025-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-10-17 |
Application of Monte-Carlo Method on Assessing Corroded Failure Probability of Defective Pipelines |
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| LIU Xiaodong,LI Zhuxin. Application of Monte-Carlo Method on Assessing Corroded Failure Probability of Defective Pipelines[J]. Journal of Logistical Engineering University, 2007, 23(2): 25-28,32 |
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| Authors: | LIU Xiaodong LI Zhuxin |
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| Abstract: | Corrosion is one of the most important factors which lead to pipeline accidents. Most of the long-distance pipelines in service are corroded seriously in our country. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the corroded failure probability of defective pipelines. Because the result is conservative by B31G criterion, an improved B31G criterion is used to assess the corroded defects. Considering the uncertainty of related parameter of corroded defect, we use Monte-Carlo method to calculate the corroded failure probability of defective pipelines. The feasibility of Monte-Carlo method is proved by calculating the failure probability of a given pipeline. |
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| Keywords: | Monte-Carlo pipeline corrosion failure probability assessment risk analysis |
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