Beyond Pessimism: Why the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Will Not Collapse |
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Authors: | Liviu Horovitz |
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Affiliation: | Center for Security Studies, ETH Zurich, Switzerland |
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Abstract: | This article questions the predominantly pessimistic assessments over the future of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). After analysing available evidence on states’ interests and interactions within the NPT’s framework, it argues that several negative expectations are unwarranted. Conversely, the article identifies three potentially threatening scenarios. Therefore, it scrutinizes the likely impact of reactive nuclear proliferation; analyses the probability of significant actors challenging the existent nuclear architecture; and explores whether the treaty’s enforcement might soon be diluted. The article concludes the NPT is unlikely to face fundamental threats in the foreseeable future. |
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Keywords: | Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) Nuclear Weapons Non-Proliferation Disarmament Multilateral Treaties |
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