枪械产品故障树的模糊分析

事件发生概率的获取是故障树分析(FTA)中的重要环节,然而在一些故障发生频率很低的场合,要获得大量的故障数据几乎是不可能的,传统的故障树分析把事件发生的概率处理成精确值,忽略了数据的不完备性及环境的模糊性.针对这一问题,在枪械产品的可靠性研究中提出了模糊故障树分析方法,将现有统计数据和工程技术人员的经验结合起来,在容许误差范围内,求解出了事件发生概率的取值空间,使结果更接近实际情况.

A Study on Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis Method Used for Smallarms Reliability

A key link of the fault tree analysis is to gain the probability of event occurence,however it is impossible to get a number of failure datas in some low-frenquency circumstances.The traditional fault tree analysis regards the probability of event occurence as exact value,which neglects the fact that the data aren't so perfect and the enenvironment is fuzzy.This paper brings forward fuzzy fault tree analysis method to solve the problem of the small arms reliability.It combines the now available data with the experience of the technicians,and make the result approaches to the actual condition.