基于聚合模型的高轨预警卫星威胁评估

高轨预警卫星威胁评估是导弹作战指挥辅助决策的重要环节，可以为指挥员的太空目标选择提供依据。在分析其威胁要素特征的基础上，提出了采用“聚合模型”开展威胁评估的方法，并给出了威胁评估步骤。通过分析美国高轨预警卫星的工作模式及作战流程，选取了扫描探测、凝视跟踪及外部等三个方面的关键性威胁要素，并构建了各要素的评价函数模型。基于上下层威胁要素之间关系的不同，给出了两种不同的聚合模型，采用该模型分析了所选要素之间的聚合关系，得到了高轨预警卫星威胁评估模型。最后通过实例计算，验证了该评估方法的可行性和实用性。

Threat Assessment of High-orbit Early Warning Satellites Based on Aggregation Model

The threat assessment of the high?orbit early warning satellites is an important part of the assistant decision of the missile operational command, which can provide the basis for the commander?s choice of the space target. On the basis of analyzing the characteristics of the threat elements, the threat assessment method using the"aggregation model" is proposed, and the threat assessment procedure is given. Based on the analysis of the working mode and the operational process of the A?merican high?orbit early warning satellites, the critical elements including three aspects, such as the scan detection, the gaze tracking and the outside, are selected, and evaluation function model of each element is constructed. According to the rela?tionship between threat elements of upper and lower layers, two kinds of aggregation models are given. The aggregation mod?els are used to analyze the relationship among the elements selected, and the threat assessment model of high?orbit early warning satellites is obtained. Finally, it confirms the feasibility and practicality of the assessment method by an example.