The end of the “INF Treaty” and the US-China military balance

ABSTRACT

Whereas much of the debate about the demise of the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty has focused on the European context and Russia’s alleged treaty violations, Asia looms large in the minds of proponents of the United States’s immediate withdrawal from the treaty. For many proponents, the fast-changing military balance in Asia and China's conventionally armed missiles constitute a sufficient cause for withdrawal. What does the end of the INF Treaty bode for the US-China military balance? This article argues that, although there are some near-term benefits for the US position in the conventional military balance with China, the advantages offered by prohibited missiles are minor and can be readily substituted by extant capabilities that are compliant with the treaty. Given the negative implications of the end of the INF Treaty for the future of arms control, the costs and benefits of withdrawing from the treaty require further examination; the military balance in Asia is an unpersuasive rationale for withdrawing from an important part of the arms-control architecture.     

South Asia's Missile Expansion

ABSTRACT

Over the past decade, contrary to declarations that they are pursuing “minimum” deterrence, India and Pakistan have considerably expanded their missile forces. India has developed eleven types of missiles while Pakistan has fielded nine. These missile forces have a mixed impact on deterrence stability. Both states' medium-range missiles strengthen their countervalue deterrent capabilities against the other, though India's China-specific missiles still have limitations. India's and Pakistan's short-range missiles and first-generation naval systems raise concerns about nuclear ambiguity, command and control, and escalation across the nuclear threshold, ultimately undermining deterrence stability on the subcontinent.     

BALLISTIC TRAJECTORY

North Korea has been one of the world's most active suppliers of ballistic missile systems since the mid-1980s, but the nature of its missile export business has changed significantly during this period. Unclassified, publicly available data show that the great majority of known deliveries of complete missile systems from North Korea occurred before 1994. The subsequent fall-off took place a decade too early to be explained by the Proliferation Security Initiative of 2003. It can be explained by a combination of factors that have reduced demand. First, after selling production equipment for ballistic missiles to many states, especially in the Middle East, North Korea by the late 1990s had become primarily a supplier of missile parts and materials, not complete systems. Second, after Operation Desert Storm, some missile-buying states shifted their attention away from ballistic missiles in favor of manned aircraft, cruise missiles, and missile defense systems supplied by Western powers. Third, some states experienced pressure from the United States to curtail their dealings with North Korea. During the last decade, having shed most of its previous customer base, North Korea has entered a phase of collaborative missile development with a smaller number of state partners, particularly Iran and Syria. Its known sales of complete missile systems are relatively small and infrequent. North Korea's time as missile supplier to the Middle East at large has ended, but there is a risk that regional states will turn to North Korea as a supplier of nuclear technology in the future.     

【专题】智能化导弹质量检测方法研究

导弹是由各种类型装备组成的综合性很强的复杂系统,智能技术的引入进一步丰富了智能导弹质量特性的内涵,对质量检测和控制提出了更高要求,需要开发与之相适应的检测方法。本文先给出了智能导弹的定义和内涵,分析了其智能特性,接着概述了智能化导弹的结构组成,分析了各智能部件的功能和结构组成,从智能化导弹结构组成及测试参数、智能化部件的嵌入式软件作用、零部件机械加工精度等方面提出了智能化导弹质量检测的需求,并在此基础上结合智能化制造等技术提出了在线检测、自动检测/测试、BIT自检、软件测评技术以及弹载遥测的智能化导弹质量检测途径和方法。     

BTT导弹制导律研究综述

与STT导弹相比,BTT导弹在气动效率、机动能力、控制性能等方面具有明显优势,但其运动耦合特性也给传统研究框架下的制导律设计带来了挑战。本文针对BTT导弹制导律设计问题展开研究,首先描述了BTT导弹制导基本问题,分析了BTT导弹制导律设计的技术难点,需要综合考虑运动耦合、多约束、目标机动、弹体动态效应等因素,然后综述了国内外现代制导律设计的基本方法,将其分为双通道解耦法、球坐标法、现代几何法等,最后指出了BTT导弹制导律的进一步研究方向。     

Between a rock and a hard place: Europe in a post-INF world

The end of the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty has the potential to plunge Europe and NATO into deep crisis. Russia’s continued violation coupled with the Donald J. Trump administration’s desire to balance against Moscow and Beijing could force a new missile debate on Europeans. Even though Washington is trying to assuage its allies, the specter of another round of INF missile deployments to Europe is not unrealistic. Meanwhile, NATO’s European members face a dilemma. Some want NATO to resolutely push back against Russia. Others want to avoid a new deployment debate, at almost all costs. The Kremlin will use these cleavages to weaken NATO. If not carefully handled, NATO’s response to the Russian missile buildup could lead to domestic turmoil in a number of European states and render the alliance ineffective for a prolonged period. Europeans need to act now and voice their preferences in the military and diplomatic domains. A number of different military options are available, below the level of deploying new INF missiles in Europe. However, Europeans need to consider trade-offs regarding crisis and arms-race stability. At the same time, it will be up to European capitals to conceptualize a new arms-control framework for the post-INF world, one that takes into account today’s geopolitical realities and the entanglement of modern conventional and nuclear forces. Given the Trump administration’s loathing of arms control, concepts of mutual restraint may well have to wait for the next US administration. In any case, that should not stop Europeans from taking on more responsibility for their own security.     

WSEIAC模型的中远程空空导弹武器系统效能分析

依据中远程空空导弹武器平台系统的战术指标,建立了中远程空空导弹武器平台系统的效能评价体系.对ADC扩展模型中的人为因素K进行了修正,在能力矩阵C中增加对载机生存能力和信息支持能力的体现.在此基础上给出了修正扩展模型下的系统效能,计算了在原始ADC模型下的系统效能,并对两种模型下的效能差异进行了比较.     

地面防空火力单元基于D-S理论选择反导防御手段

在现代战争中,飞航导弹发挥了重要作用,取得了巨大的作战效能。地面防空火力单元面临着如何合理使用防御措施、正确选择干扰手段加强对飞航导弹防御的问题。提出一种把基于D-S理论的数据融合技术应用于地面防空火力单元选择干扰手段进行反导防御的方法。结果表明,利用D-S理论可以较好地选择对飞航导弹的干扰手段。     

基于量子双向RRT算法的多平台反舰导弹协同航路规划

针对反舰导弹航路规划面临的动态威胁环境和多平台协同打击问题,提出了一种基于量子双向RRT算法的反舰导弹协同航路规划方法。采用动态坐标设置动态威胁,实时地避开动态威胁;通过取预规划终点方法,实现对目标的时间和空间协同打击;结合量子进化思想,将RRT算法中的扩展方向量子化表示,提出了一种量子双向RRT算法,并应用于航路规划。仿真结果表明,该方法可有效规避动态威胁和解决多平台反舰导弹航路规划的协同问题,并显著地改善了RRT算法的全局收敛性,得到了航程更短的航路。     

弹道导弹突防措施分析

简要介绍了弹道导弹面临的典型防御系统。针对该防御系统,提出了弹道导弹所能采取的典型突防手段,并将弹道导弹突防措施分为反侦察类突防和反拦截类突防两部分,介绍了反侦察类突防中的电子干扰、诱饵、隐身、助推段策略以及反拦截类突防中的加强防御策略、导弹机动发射与飞行、多弹头策略等。为研究弹道导弹突防技术提供参考。     

弹道导弹突防措施分析

简要介绍了弹道导弹面临的典型防御系统。针对该防御系统,提出了弹道导弹所能采取的典型突防手段,并将弹道导弹突防措施分为反侦察类突防和反拦截类突防两部分,介绍了反侦察类突防中的电子干扰、诱饵、隐身、助推段策略以及反拦截类突防中的加强防御策略、导弹机动发射与飞行、多弹头策略等。为研究弹道导弹突防技术提供参考。     

弹道导弹基本诸元的快速装订算法研究

应用牛顿迭代法实现了弹道导弹基本诸元的快速装订。推导了根据落点偏差求飞行程序角和发射方位角的牛顿迭代公式，设计了迭代算法，并给出了实际算例。考虑到迭代算法收敛速度与所给的迭代初值有一定的关系，提出了预先准备简易射表采用反插值算法为牛顿迭代法准备初值的方法，经计算表明可以大大减少迭代次数，从而实现标准弹道的快速设计。     

一种固体导弹最大射程评定方法

本文提出了一种基于固体火箭发动机性能散布分析的固体导弹最大射程评定方法，将系统辨识、性能散布分析和统计分析有机结合，实用性强，对固体导弹试验鉴定技术研究具有重要意义。     

MAD,not Marx: Khrushchev and the nuclear revolution

The revival of nuclear strategy in US policy and scholarship has been strengthened by arguments that the ‘nuclear revolution’ – the assumption that thermonuclear bombs and missiles had made major war too dangerous to wage – does not affect international behaviour as much as nuclear revolution advocates claim. This article shows that the Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev indeed regarded nuclear war as too dangerous to wage, a decision which manifested itself not so much in foreign policy or military doctrine but in his determination to avoid war when the possibility arose. We argue that Khrushchev’s experience provides us with a more useful way to characterise the nuclear revolution and suggest some implications of this argument for contemporary debates about nuclear weaponry.     

A nuclear-armed North Korea without ICBMs: the best achievable objective

This article analyzes the North Korean nuclear crisis from a balance-of-power perspective. It is in the long-term interests of international peace for a secure and independent North Korea to serve as a buffer between US and Chinese ground forces. However, the conventional military advantage of the South Korean-American alliance over North Korea has grown drastically since the end of the Cold War, threatening North Korea’s survival. Since North Korea lacks any reliable ally, nuclear weapons represent its most cost-effective way to restore a balance of power and thus secure itself. Accepting security guarantees in exchange for its nuclear arsenal is rhetorically appealing but not a viable approach. North Korea’s development of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), however, has overcompensated for the post-Cold War imbalance, inviting talk in Washington of waging a preventive war. Persuading North Korea to give up its ICBM capability, not its nuclear arsenal, should therefore be the primary objective of US diplomacy.     

弹(箭)体级间连接结构准静载失效实验与数值预示

级间螺栓法兰连接是导弹(火箭)常见的连接方式,但破坏了整体结构连续性,且承载能力薄弱,在外荷载作用下易发生失效而使整弹(箭)结构强度丧失。根据实际导弹(火箭)连接结构特点,简化设计并制作了一组原理性实验件,设计了准静载加载实验测试系统和螺栓响应信号传感器,进行了两次准静载失效实验,并利用ABAQUS软件建立了对应的有限元仿真模型。根据实验效果和实测数据,分析了连接结构在准静载荷载作用下的失效机理,并对比验证发现有限元模型数值模拟效果和精度与实验吻合较好。研究结论可为弹(箭)体级间连接结构承载能力和失效实验设计提供参考。     

俄海军舰空导弹武器设计和试验一体化仿真平台

目前在舰空导弹系统研制领域,俄罗斯海军处于世界先进水平。介绍了俄罗斯在舰空导弹武器设计和试验仿真领域的研究成果,对构建设计和试验一体化仿真平台具有重要的借鉴意义。     

制导炸弹--一种重要的空袭兵器和应对措施

根据越南战争、海湾战争和科索沃战争的战例,阐述了制导炸弹的主要战术技术特点,认为制导炸弹是未来空袭作战重要兵器,是中低空中近程地(舰)空导弹的重要目标,拦截制导炸弹是地(舰)空导弹应该着力研究的问题.论证了中低空中近程地(舰)空导弹拦截制导炸弹的可行性,并提出了应开展的专项技术研究课题.     

基于贝叶斯网络的反舰导弹身份识别

为了解决反舰导弹身份识别所面临的实时性和信息不确定性问题,提出了采用贝叶斯网络识别反舰导弹的方法。设计了4种贝叶斯网络分类器,分别在导弹仿真数据集和UCI数据集上作了测试,比较了它们各自的分类性能。实验结果表明,朴素贝叶斯网络的分类准确率虽然比其它分类器稍低,但它简单有效,稳健性比其它分类器都好,可用于反舰导弹身份的实时识别。     

Missile defense and strategic stability: Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) in South Korea

South Korea is threatened by its troubled relationship with North Korea. North Korea possesses a large cache of missiles as well as chemical and biological weapons, and the future potential to mount nuclear weapons on its missiles. The United States is also challenged because of its defense commitments to Seoul. As a countermeasure, the United States and South Korea decided to deploy Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defenses in South Korea. However, China has objected. Chinese scholars believe the THAAD radar would be able to track Chinese inter-continental ballistic missiles, thereby weakening their deterrent. A technical analysis does not support this assertion. However, it is vital for South Korea, given its proximity and economic interdependence, to reassure China. South Korea should highlight that THAAD will be deployed by the United States Forces Korea and is not a commitment by Seoul to become part of U.S.-led missile defenses in the Asia-Pacific.