Decision costs in the intelligence cycle

John Terraine, The Smoke and the Fire: Myths and Anti‐Myths of War 1861–1945. London: Sidgwick &; Jackson, 1980. Pp. 240; £8.95.

Stephen Roskill, Admiral of the Fleet: Earl Beatty. London: Collins,1980. Pp. 430; £12.95.

Peter and Leni Gillman, ’Collar the Lot’. How Britain Interned and Expelled its Wartime Refugees. London: Quartet Books, 1980. Pp. 314; £8.95.

Frederic A. Bergerson, The Army Gels An Air Force: Tactics of Insurgent Bureaucratic Politics. Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1980. Pp. xiii + 216; £8.50.

Christoph Bertram (ed), Prospects of Soviet Power in the 1980s. London: Macmillan, and IISS, 1980. Pp. 126; £15.

James M. Roherty (ed.), Defense Policy Formulation: Towards Comparative Analysis. Durham, NC: Carolina Academic Press, 1980. Pp. 315; $14.95.

Franklyn Griffiths and John C. Dolanyi, The Dangers of Nuclear War. Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 1979. $15.00.

Kenneth Mackenzie, Turkey under the Generals. London: Institute for the Study of Conflict, Conflict Studies. Number 126, January 1981. Pp. 31.     

Transformation of Military Ethics During the Zhou Dynasty in Ancient China

ABSTRACT

The transformation of the governance model from a rule of virtue to political realism in China has been a topic of great interest to scholars. In this study, I examine military culture during the Zhou Dynasty and investigate the changes in ethics based on factors such as cultural values, social customs, and political structure to understand the process by which moral values have changed as the governance model transformed from rule of virtue to political realism. I found that military ethics have changed from governance through the use of rituals during the Western Zhou Dynasty to what was called “deception makes an army” during the Eastern Zhou Dynasty.     

Civil–military relations and organisational preferences regarding the use of the military in Chinese foreign policy: insights from the debate on MOOTW

ABSTRACT

This article analyses the positions of the Chinese civilian leaders and military elites on Military Operations Other Than War in order to shed light on their preferences about the use of the armed forces in foreign policy between the late 1990s and the early 2010s. Over time, a significant divergence developed between civilians and soldiers until 2011, when the Libyan crisis happened. The study also prompts important considerations about our understanding of civil–military relations in China and future role of the People’s Liberation Army as a tool of statecraft in foreign policy.     

Understanding the Legitimacy of Armed Groups: A Relational Perspective

Abstract

This paper analyses the multiple pathways through which legitimacy of armed groups is constructed in conflict-affected states. It adopts a political sociological approach to the study of armed group legitimacy. Such a strategy assists in identifying whether armed groups enjoy legitimacy in a given empirical context and avoids applying pre-determined normative criteria. The focus is on three types of relationships: civilian communities, the state or regime in power and external actors including regional and international sponsors, to discern which types of legitimacy matter for armed groups in different relationships.     

Military Interventions in Civil Wars: Protecting Foreign Direct Investments and the Defence Industry

ABSTRACT

This study extends existing scholarship on the influence of corporate/industry investments on the onset of military interventions in civil wars challenging prior null findings. It proposes a state-centric theoretical framework and argues that researchers have to differentiate between the protection and the advancement of corporate/industry interests. Random-effect logit models in combination with UCDP data on interventions from 2001 until 2009 corroborate the hypothesis that the protection of existing foreign direct investments, as well as the protection of prior arms trade, increase the willingness of a state to intervene militarily in a civil war.     

A Mathematical Approach to Limit Illegal Border-Crossings – with Application in Protecting Critical Infrastructure

The grand aim of all science is to cover the greatest number of empirical facts by logical deduction from the smallest number of hypotheses or axioms.

Albert Einstein

Current problem: Border Emergency

Solutions in response

US Congress's response: Set immigration policies, a series of immigration reform bills and proposals.

Government's response: Make an appropriation/budget for border issues: increase law enforcement personnel and needed resources, pay officers overtime, and build fences along the border.

Scientists' response: Describe this complex problem mathematically and provide scientific solutions.     

Book reviews

John Horsfield, The Art of Leadership in War. The Royal Navy From the Age of Nelson to the End of World War II. Westport, Conn. and London: Greenwood Press, 1980. Pp. 240; £14.75.

John Joseph Timothy Sweet, Iron Arm: The Mechanization of Mussolini's Army, 1920–1940. Westport, Connecticut &; London: Greenwood Press. 1980. Pp. 207; £15.50.

Peter H. Merkl, The Making of a Stormtrooper. Princeton, N.J: Princeton U.P., 1980. Pp. 328; £8.60.

Greg Herken, The Winning Weapon: The Atomic Bomb in the Cold War 1945–1950. New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1980. Pp. 425; $15.00.

Geoffrey Smith and Nelson W. Polsby, British Government and its Discontents. New York: Basic Books, and London: Harper and Row, 1981. Pp. 202; £7.95.

Seweryn Bialer (ed.), The Domestic Context of Soviet Foreign Policy. Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press and London: Croom Helm, 1981. Pp. 441; £14.95.

Jerry F. Hough, Soviet Leadership in Transition. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution and Oxford, Basil Blackwell, 1981. Pp. 175; £12.00 (hb.) and £3.95 (pb.)

Edward F. Mickolus, Transnational Terrorism: A Chronology of Events 1968–1979. London: Aldwych Press, 1980. Pp. 967; £39.95.

Barry Rubin, The Great Powers in the Middle East, 1941–47; The Road to the Cold War, London: Frank Cass, 1980. Pp. 254; £14.50;

Daniel Heradstveit, The Arab‐Israeli Conflict; Psychological Obstacles to Peace. Oslo: Universittsforlaget, 1979. Pp. 234; £11.60;

Janice Gross Stein, and Raymond Tanter, Rational Decision‐making; Israel's Security Choices 1967. Columbus. Ohio; Ohio State University Press, 1980. Pp. 399; $35.     

Intricacies of Engaging Diasporas in Conflict Resolution and Transitional Justice: The Kurdish Diaspora and the Peace Process in Turkey

Abstract

The growing literature on diasporas’ involvement in homeland conflicts shows that diasporas have the power to influence political, social and economic developments in their country of origin and residence. Although this is an emerging field of research, there is still much to discover about the roles that diasporas play in conflict resolution and transitional justice. This article intends to fill this gap by scrutinising the Kurdish Diaspora as a case study. It explores the intricacies of integrating diasporas into conflict resolution by analysing approaches of homeland actors and fragments within diaspora throughout the different stages of the peace processes.     

Are the Baltic States and NATO on the right path in deterring Russia in the Baltic?

ABSTRACT

The aim of the current study is to discuss which particular factors Russia considers as sufficient deterrent capabilities and whether the national defence models implemented in the Baltic countries have the potential to deter Russia's military planners and political leadership. Whilst the existing conventional reserves of NATO are sizeable, secure, and rapid, deployment is still a critical variable in case of a conflict in the Baltic countries because of the limited range of safe transportation options. However, whilst the Baltic States are developing their capabilities according to the priorities defined by NATO in 2010; which were updated after the invasion of Crimea in 2014, Russian military planners have meanwhile redesigned both their military doctrine and military forces, learning from the experience of the Russo-Georgian war, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and other recent confrontations. Accordingly, there is a risk that the efforts of the Baltic countries could prove rather inefficient in deterring Russia.     

An empirical assessment of us air force

The US Air Force is facing a record shortfall in pilots over the coming decade. Using personnel data on more than 10,000 Air Force pilots, this study examines the factors affecting the retention of pilots and assesses the effectiveness of the pilot bonus programme implemented by the Air Force to reduce attrition. Although surveys indicated sustained deployment rates were the leading cause of job dissatisfaction among Air Force pilots, the results of this study suggest economic factors had the largest impact on retention.     

Externality of Defense Expenditure in the United States: A New Analytical Technique to Overcome Multicollinearity

Abstract

This study estimates a three-sector Feder–Ram model using US annual data for 1965–2014 to confirm the externality of defense expenditure in the United States. Although the model is often used in the literature to scrutinize whether this effect exists, a flaw intrinsic to this model is the appearance of multicollinearity. In this study, I introduced novel techniques, namely: the standardization and estimation of a simple slope, to estimate the model. The results are as follows. First, I prove that the multicollinearity problem can be resolved by standardization. Second, externality, which is judged to conventionally exist, is not found. Third, increases in defense expenditure bring about positive but limited economic growth when the ratio of private to defense expenditure in the previous year ranges from 5.09 to 6.82%. By re-estimating the model, this study contributes to developing the Feder–Ram model within the related literature.     

Ethnic targeting: A bad idea whose time has come

Wm. Roger Louis, Imperialism at Bay 1941–1945. The United States and the decolonization of the British Empire. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1977. Pp. xvi + 595;£12.50.

Christopher Thorne, Allies of a Kind. The United States, Britain and the war against Japan, 1941–1945. London: Hamish Hamilton, 1978. Pp. xxii + 772; £15.00.

Michael Howard, editor, Restraints on War: Studies in the Limitation of Armed Conflict Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1979. Pp. viii + 173; £6.50.

Julian Lider, The Political and Military Laws of War: an Analysis of Marxist‐Leninist Concepts. Farnborough, Hants: Saxon House, 1979. Pp. vii + 266; £12.50.

Klaus‐Jürgen Müller and Eckardt Opitz (editors), Militär und Militarismus in der Weimarer Republik. Düsseldorf: Droste Verlag, 1978. Pp. 304; n.p.

Nicholas Bethell, The Palestine Triangle: The Struggle Between the British, the Jews and the Arabs 1935–1948. London: Steinmatsky's Agency Ltd. in association with Andre Deutsch, 1919. Pp. 384; £7.95.

Sir Maurice Dean, The Royal Air Force and Two World Wars. London: Cassell, 1979. Pp. 349; £8.95.

Wilfred Jay Holmes, Double‐Edged Secrets. Annapolis, Maryland: Naval Institute Press, 1979. Pp. 218, n.p.

S. G. Gorshkov, The Sea Power of the State. Oxford: Pergamon Press, 1979. Pp. 290; £15.00.

Kirk, Grayson and Wessell, N.H. eds., The Soviet Threat: Myths and Realities. New York and London: Praeger, 1978. Pp. 182; £12.00.

Kenneth E. Boulding, Stable Peace. Austin and London: University of Texas Press, 1978. Pp. 155;£2.80.

Kenneth E. Boulding (ed.), Peace and the War Industry. New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Books, and Oxford: Basil Blackwell, 1973. Pp. vii + 213; £2.75.     

France and the Gulf War of 1990–1991: Political‐military lessons learned

Kathleen Burk, Britain, America and the Sinews of War 1914–1918. Boston and London: Allen &; Unwin, 1985. Pp.x + 286; £20.00.

Keith Jeffery, The British Army and the Crisis of Empire 1918–1922. Manchester: Manchester University Press, 1984. Pp.viii + 200; £21.00.

Carlo D'Este, Decision in Normandy. London: Pan Books in association with Collins, 1984. Pp.xii + 555; £3.95.

R. J. Overy, Goering: The ‘Iron Man’, London: Routledge &; Kegan Paul, 1984. Pp. x + 310; bibliography; index; £14.95.

John Barron, KGB: The Hidden Hand. New York: Reader's Digest Press, 1983. Pp.489. $15.95.

Edward Van Der Rhoer, The Shadow Network: Espionage as an Instrument of Soviet Policy, New York: Charles Scribner's Sons, 1983. Pp.359. $19.95.

David Holloway and Jane M. O. Sharp (eds.), The Warsaw Pact: Alliance in Transition? London: Macmillan Press, 1984. Pp.290; £25.

A. Ross Johnson, Robert W. Dean and Alexander Alexiev, East European Military Establishments: The Warsaw Pact Northern Tier. New York: Crane, Russak, 1982. Pp.xiii + 182; $19.50.

Condoleezza Rice, The Soviet Union and the Czechoslovak Army, 1948–1983: Uncertain Allegiance. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1985. Pp.xiv + 303; £40.40.

Trevor Taylor, European Defence Cooperation (Chatham House Papers, No. 24). London: Routledge &; Kegan Paul for RIIA, 1984. Pp.97; £4.95.

Phil Williams, US Troops in Europe (Chatham House Papers, No. 25). London: Routledge &; Kegan Paul for RIIA, 1984. Pp.87; £5.95.

Daniel Frei, Assumptions and Perceptions in Disarmament. New York and Geneva: United Nations, 1984. Pp.xiv + 321; NP.

Joseph Rotblat and Alessandro Pascolini (eds.), The Arms Race at a Time of Decision, Annals of Pugwash 1983. London and Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1984. Pp.xxiv + 291; £20 (hardback) and £7.95 (paperback).

Philip H. Frankel, Pretoria's Praetorians. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1984. Pp. xx + 215; £23.50.

Brian May, Russia, America, the Bomb and the Fall of Western Europe. London: Routledge &; Kegan Paul, 1984. Pp.vii + 248. £11.95.

Robert Jervis, The Illogic of American Nuclear Strategy. Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 1984. Pp.203; $19.95.     

The Underlying Causes of Violent Conflict in the North Waziristan Tribal Areas of Pakistan

ABSTRACT

Following the US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, Pakistan and the merged Tribal Districts, particularly the North Waziristan Tribal District (NWTD), experienced increasing violent conflict. This paper examines the causes of conflict in North Waziristan from the perspective of local communities. The study is based on qualitative primary data collected in NWTD. The study identifies deep-rooted internal factors such as poor socio-economic conditions, political exclusion, degradation of local institutions and culture, introduction and promotion of Jihadi culture and militancy as the main drivers of conflict in NWTD. External factors, like the USSR and US invasions in Afghanistan, a porous border and unseen international actors, have contributed to the start and even escalation of the more recent conflict, but mainly through exacerbating internal factors. The study recommends that policies aiming to reduce violent conflict in this region pay due attention to the significance of addressing the underlying internal drivers of conflict.     

Daily life and motivation in war: The wehrmacht in the Soviet Union∗

Lucio Ceva, Le Forze armate. Turin: UTET, 1981, Pp. 641; L.48,000.

Bernd Wegner, Hitlers Politische Soldaten: Die Waffen‐SS 1933–1945. Paderborn: Verlag Ferdinand Schöningh, 1982. Pp. 363; DM48.

Jean Vanwelkenhuyzen, Les avertissements qui venaient de Berlin, 9 octobre 1939–10 mai 1940. Paris‐Gembloux: Editions Duculot, 1982. Pp. 398; Fr.90.

Andrew Hodges, Alan Turing: The Enigma. New York: Simon &; Schuster. Pp. 587; $22.50.

Nigel Hamilton, Monty: Master of the Battlefield, 1942–1944. London: Hamish Hamilton, 1983. Pp.xxxi + 863; £12.95.

Bernard Burrows and Geoffrey Edwards, The Defence of Western Europe. London: Butterworth Scientific, 1982. Pp.155; £16.

Elmar Dinter and Paddy Griffith, Not Over by Christinas: NATO's Central Front in World War III. Chichester, Sussex: Antony Bird Publications, 1983. Pp.xiv + 178; £8.95.

David Capitanchik and Richard C. Eichenberg, Defence and Public Opinion. London: Royal Institute of International Affairs and Routledge and Kegan Paul, 1983. Pp.ix + 98; £4.95.

Ian Clark, Limited Nuclear War. Oxford: Martin Robertson, 1982. Pp.266; £16.50.

Bhupendra Jasani (ed.), Outer Space ‐ A New Dimension of the Arms Race. London: Taylor and Francis, 1982. Pp. xviii + 423; £18.50.

William J. Taylor, Jr. and Steven A. Maaranen (eds.), The Future of Conflict in the 1980s. Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books, 1982. Pp. xiii + 505.

Joseph S. Himes, Conflict and Conflict Management. Athens, GA; University of Georgia Press. 1980. Pp.333.

Richard Burt (ed.), Arms Control and Defense Postures in the 1980s. Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press and London: Croom Helm, 1982. Pp.x + 230; £15.95.     

Nigerian women and the trends of kidnapping in the era of Boko Haram insurgency: patterns and evolution

ABSTRACT

The rising trend of kidnapping targeting women has shown that counterinsurgency does not begin and end with the strategic advantage of state security providers in the security market and the field. Kidnapping of females by Boko Haram insurgents threatens human security and hinders sustainable development goals in Northeastern Nigeria. With primary and secondary sources, this qualitative study examines how Boko Haram insurgents target women in Northeastern Nigeria. The paper argues that community driven security strategy achievable through the collaboration between state and traditional security providers, can prevent the entry and easy escape of the insurgents. It concludes that the forces of order should sustain a policy of stop and searches until insurgents are defeated along with a programme of community-based human rights education and insurgency emergency response system for quick response to security threats.     

The macuahuitl: an innovative weapon of the Late Post-Classic in Mesoamerica

Abstract

This study is intended to shed some light on a number of issues relating to the famous Aztec weapon called the macuahuitl. This well-known artefact still presents many problems of interpretation, resulting in a polemic that still rages regarding its origin, spatial-temporal distribution and its real role in Mesoamerican cultural development. The subject of warfare in Mesoamerica is still one of the main areas of investigation for many researchers. However, it is common for researchers to analyze the military phenomenon from a completely symbolic standpoint and overlook the practical aspects such as military tactics, weapons systems and battlefield successes. It is against this background that I have developed a programme of investigation that I have called the Research Programme into Military Equipment in Mesoamerica, which considers the phenomenon of war throughout Mesoamerica from various perspectives. I have initially focused this programme on weapons systems among the Mexicas as they relate to the battlefield.     

Gas and the North‐West Frontier

John Terraine, Business in Great Waters: The U Boat Wars 1916 ‐1945. London: Leo Cooper, 1989. Pp.xx + 841; £19.50.

Peter Simkins, Kitchener's Armies: The Raising of the New Armies, 1914–16. Manchester: Manchester University Press, 1988. Pp.xvi + 359; index; illustrations. £37.50 (hardback).

Keith Grieves, Sir Eric Geddes: Business and Government in War and Peace. Manchester and New York: Manchester University Press, 1989. Pp.xiv + 188; £35.

Jeffrey Grey, The Commonwealth Armies and the Korean War: An Alliance Study. Manchester: Manchester University Press, 1988. Pp.xii + 244; £12.95.

Rajan Menon and Daniel N. Nelson (eds.), Limits to Soviet Power. Lexington, MA/Toronto: Lexington Books, 1989. Pp.vii + 231; $35.

Michael Leifer, ASEAN and the Security of South‐East Asia. London and New York: Routledge, 1989. Pp.x + 198; £30.

Grant Wardlaw, Political Terrorism: Theory, Tactics and Counter‐measures. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, second edn. 1989. Pp.xv + 248; £27.50 (hardback); £10.95 (paperback).

John F. Murphy, Punishing International Terrorists: The Legal Framework for Policy Initiatives. Totowa, NJ: Rowman &; Allanheld 1985. Pp.x + 142; $25.95.

Hanns Maull and Otto Pick (eds.), The Gulf War. London: Pinter Publishers, 1989. Pp.193; £30.

Royal United Services Institute for Defence Studies and Brassey's Defence Yearbook 1989. London: Brassey's Defence Publishers, 1989. Pp.xxviii + 361; £35.

Virginia Gamba‐Stonehouse, Strategy in the Southern Oceans: A South American View. London: Pinter Publishers, 1989. Pp.xiii + 155; £30.

Ola Tunander, Cold Water Politics: The Maritime Strategy and Geopolitics of the Northern Front. London: Sage Publications for the International Peace Research Institute, Oslo, 1989. Pp.194; £25.

Richard Fieldhouse and Shunji Taoka, Superpowers at Sea: An Assessment of the Naval Arms Race. Oxford: Oxford University Press for SIPRI, 1989. Pp.183; £19.50.

Kenneth E. Boulding, Conflict and Defense: A General Theory. University Press of America, 1988. Pp.xiv + 347; $16.75 (paperback). (First Published, 1962).     

An Analysis of the Threat of Malicious Chemical Use by Nonstate Actors: Questioning the State-based Approach to Chemical Nonproliferation

ABSTRACT

This study seeks to evaluate the threat of malicious chemical use by non-state actors. It finds that non-state actors have primarily turned to ready-to-use crude chemical weapons (CW) instead of traditional CW agents. Interestingly, the worst crude CW attacks have been more destructive than those employing traditional CW. Scenarios for catastrophic consequences exist, but chemical attacks have typically been used to accomplish tactical goals, which leverage psychological and economic impacts. Therefore, successful efforts to counter CW proliferation by non-state actors must be substantially different from those targeting states.     

Italian military efficiency: A debate

Allan R. Millett and Peter Maslowski, For the Common Defense: A Military History of the United States of America. New York and London: Free Press and Macmillan, 1984, 1986. Pp.xiv + 621; $24.95.

Ian F. W. Beckett, The Army and the Curragh Incident, 1914. London: Bodley Head for The Army Records Society, 1986. Pp.xii + 456; £20.

Martin van Creveld, Command in War. Cambridge, MA and London: Harvard University Press, 1985. Pp. 339. £18.25 and £8.75 (paperback).

Charles Townshend, Britain's Civil Wars: Counterinsurgency in the Twentieth Century. London: Faber &; Faber, 1986. Pp. 220; £14.95.

Eliot A. Cohen, Citizens and Soldiers: The Dilemmas of Military Service. Ithaca, NY and London: Cornell University Press, 1985. Pp.227; $22.50.

Alberto R. Coll and Anthony C. Arend (eds.), The Falkland's War: Lessons for Strategy, Diplomacy and International Law. London and Boston, MA: George Allen &; Unwin, 1985. Pp.xiv + 252. £18 and £7.95 (paperback).

Barry M. Blechman and William J. Lynn (eds.), Towards a More Effective Defense. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger Publishing, 1985. Pp.xiii + 247; NP.

Jonathan B. Stein, From H‐Bomb to Star Wars: The Politics of Strategic Decision‐Making. Lexington, MA: Lexington Books and Aldershot, Hants: Gower, 1985. Pp.xiii + 118; £20.

Samuel P. Huntington (ed.), The Strategic Imperative: New Policies for American Security. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger Publishing, 1982. Pp.360; NP.

Stephanie G. Neuman, Military Assistance in Recent Wars: The Dominance of the Superpowers (The Washington Papers 122). Washington, DC and New York: The Center for Strategic and International Studies and Praeger Publishers, 1986. Pp. viii + 186; $10.95 (paperback).

Stanley R. Sloan, NATO's Future: Towards a New Transatlantic Bargain. London: Macmillan, 1986. Pp. xix + 194. Appendices; index. £27.50.

Hugh Stringer, Deterring Chemical Warfare: US Policy Options for the 1990s. Cambridge, MA: Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, 1986. Pp.xii + 76. NP.

Julian Perry Robinson (ed.), The Chemical Industry and the Projected Chemical Weapons Convention, Vol. 1. Oxford: Oxford University Press for Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Chemical &; Biological Warfare Studies, No.4), 1986. Pp.xix + 147. £12.50.

Julian Perry Robinson (ed.), The Chemical Industry and the Projected Chemical Weapons Convention, Vol.2. Oxford: Oxford University Press for Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Chemical &; Biological Warfare Studies, No. 5), 1986. Pp.xix + 233. £12.50.

Keith B. Payne, Strategic Defense: ‘Star Wars’ in Perspective. Lanham, MD: Hamilton Press, 1986. Pp. xviii + 250. $20.95 (hardback); $9.95 (paper).

Bhupendra Jasani (ed.), Space Weapons: The Arms Control Dilemma. Stockholm: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (London &; Philadelphia), 1984. Pp.xiv + 255. £18. Distributed by Taylor &; Francis.

P. Edward Haley, David M. Kethly, and Jack Merritt (eds.), Nuclear Strategy, Arms Control, and the Future. Boulder, Co and London: Westview Press, 1985. Pp.xxii + 372. £15.95.