A Proxemic Account of Bayonet Fighting

The bayonet has long been regarded as an obsolete piece of military technology. This article advances a proxemic account of close combat, which points to its continuing utility under modern battlefield conditions. It is argued that bayonet training remains an effective way of preparing soldiers to psychologically dominate contested spaces on the battlefield. Thus, although other weapons and techniques can fulfil the same role, it can nevertheless be argued that the bayonet’s enduring presence is not simply the result of some atavistic military mind-set.     

An Investigation of the Weights of Pattern 1907 Bayonets made in the UK around the First World War Period

The standard issue bayonet of the British Army immediately preceding and during the First World War was the Pattern 1907. This was manufactured at different times and in varying numbers during that period by one official body, the Royal Small Arms Factory at Enfield, and by five private contractors. These bayonets were made according to published official specifications issued by the War Department and based on a ‘pattern example’ provided by the Royal Small Arms Factory. The specifications indicate, inter alia, the quality of metal used in making the bayonets, methods of inspection and proofing, and the required maximum and minimum weight range of the completed bayonet. However, examination of a series of these bayonets in a private collection suggested that their weights varied considerably from the mid-point values of the allowed weight ranges in the original and amended specifications (16.5 oz. and 17 oz., respectively). To establish if this was a common feature among this class of bayonet as opposed to a chance factor, the weights of other surviving Pattern 1907 bayonets were determined and compared to establish the degree of variance from the official specifications as originally set out by the Royal Small Arms Factory. Seventy-six percent of the 142 bayonets surveyed were found to be above the mid-point of the allowed weight range given in the amended manufacturing specifications, with many being at the upper end of the allowed range. This is a statistically unusual result. It is speculated that the target weight may have been deliberately set higher by the individual manufacturers to eliminate the possibility of rejection of any underweight bayonets by the Royal Small Arms Factory inspectors and so a refusal of acceptance and payment for the work.     

Statistical Analysis as an Adjunct to Historical Research: Identification of the Likely Manufacturers of British Pattern 1907 Bayonets Supplied by the Birmingham Small Arms Company to the Siamese Government in 1920

In 1920, the Birmingham Small Arms Company supplied 10,000 Pattern 1907 bayonets to the government of Siam to accompany an order for rifles. The original maker of these bayonets was unknown, but historical research indicates that the Wilkinson Sword Co. Ltd. was a primary maker. The weights of some surviving Pattern 1907 bayonets, including twelve bayonets from the 10,000 described above, produced by the six makers in the UK before and during the Great War (1914–1918) period were available. A statistical analysis of the data was performed to compare with the historical research. The results strongly supported that the Wilkinson Sword Co. Ltd. was a primary maker. They were also sufficient to exclude from this batch of twelve bayonets the Royal Small Arms Factory (Enfield) and Vickers Ltd. as manufacturers. The statistical evidence for the presence of bayonets made by J.A. Chapman Ltd., R. Mole & Sons and Sanderson Bros. was weaker than that for the Wilkinson Sword Co. Ltd., but was nevertheless supportive of that hypothesis. Overall, the analysis was consistent with the supply to Siam of commingled bayonets from British government stores. It was noted that the bayonets for the Siam contract fell into a relatively narrow weight range, but the reason for this could not be determined.     

基于信息熵TOP SIS法的无线传感器网络节点自定位技术

在无线传感器网络的应用中，节点的定位是一个关键的问题。但是，利用已知节点对未知节点定位的算法存在着定位精度不高，定位计算量大等缺点。针对该问题，提出了一种基于信息熵TOPSIS法的节点自定位算法，该算法利用TOPSIS法按已给的传感器属性进行排序，只取最靠前的3个节点代入标准最小二乘公式中进行计算，既缩短了计算时间，又保证了计算精度。仿真实验证明，该算法是一种有效可行的算法。     

BP神经网络在效能评估中的样本训练

根据WSEIAC模型建立了地面防空导弹武器系统效能评估的指标体系,并依此模型建立与之对应的三层BP神经网络.简要分析了BP算法的实现过程,利用专家打分法和模糊层次法相结合的方式取得该神经网络应用于地面防空导弹武器系统效能评估时的训练样本,并对此神经网络进行学习训练,直至达到精度要求.经验证,该网络在评价地面防空导弹武器系统效能时减少了评估中的人因影响,使评估结果更为科学.     

Guns–butter tradeoff in contemporary China

This study offers an investigation of the relationship between defense and social spending in the People's Republic of China. In particular, three consecutive questions are answered here. Does a warfare–welfare tradeoff exist in China's budgetary allocation? Is it positive or negative? What is the causal direction involved? By applying a vector autoregression analysis for the period of 1952–2006, this study finds a unidirectional crowd-out effect going from defense to social spending.     

基于贝叶斯网络的反舰导弹身份识别

为了解决反舰导弹身份识别所面临的实时性和信息不确定性问题,提出了采用贝叶斯网络识别反舰导弹的方法。设计了4种贝叶斯网络分类器,分别在导弹仿真数据集和UCI数据集上作了测试,比较了它们各自的分类性能。实验结果表明,朴素贝叶斯网络的分类准确率虽然比其它分类器稍低,但它简单有效,稳健性比其它分类器都好,可用于反舰导弹身份的实时识别。     

水面舰艇编队反潜武器系统架构与关键技术?

针对网络中心战条件下的水面舰艇编队反潜武器系统，介绍了国内外编队防空的发展阶段和研究现状，对编队反潜武器系统的架构进行初步探究，分析了编队反潜武器系统的6个主要功能，提炼出以下3个关键技术：编队水下数据融合技术、目标运动参数精确解算技术和编队反潜火力通道组织技术。研究结果为行业相关技术人员提供参考。     

带优先级的单类型航空弹药转运多目标规划模型

针对航母航空弹药转运过程非常复杂、涉及设备多、要求高的特点，在对其流程进行细致分析的基础上，将其抽象为一个两阶段多目标规划问题。同时，深入分析了转运过程中的各种约束条件、构建了该问题的两阶段优化模型。建模时，不仅考虑了武器升降机的有效利用、弹药量的合理分配等因素，还考虑了转运时对于不同类型弹药转运优先级与停机区弹药需求优先级的要求。通过模型优化，在满足转运优先级要求的基础上，能有效提高航空弹药的转运效率。     

RETHINKING CONFLICT TRAJECTORIES

South Africa and Kenya experienced various forms of conflict and gross human rights abuse between 1948–1994 and 1963–2002 respectively. In both situations, the conflicts were motivated by various factors; these included unequal distribution of socio-economic resources and skewed political relationships. The centrality of human rights abuse and political violence to both situations places similar issues on the agenda for analysis. In both cases opposition to regimes was justified on the basis that the political systems were constructed in such a way that limited alternative conceptions and prevented democratic freedom (until 19921 in Kenya and 1994 in South Africa). After undergoing transition to democratic rule in 1994, South Africa engaged the idea of a truth and reconciliation commission as an instrument for dealing with its past conflicts. The South African case animated widespread international interest and after an electoral victory in 2002, the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) government in Kenya mooted the same idea. By the end of 2004 however the NARC government seems to have lost interest in the truth commission concept; this paper probes the question why? Broadly there is room for alternative interpretations both within and between the two cases on how conflicts were perpetuated and the potency of a truth and reconciliation commission as a viable alternative for dealing with past conflicts. This paper broadly aims to offer a clearer account of conflicts and mechanisms for dealing with them from the conceptual lenses of conflict management theory.     

非毁伤性攻击下C2关系网络效能评估方法?

非致命毁伤对C2关系网络效能的影响，目前需要更为有效的评估方法。考虑到指控网络能否有效发挥作用，主要体现于指挥控制信息能否及时有效地按需到达，因此分析计算指挥控制信息按时按需到达的情况，可以作为指挥控制关系网络效能的一种有效评价方法。形式化描述了任务信息的到达时延、信息到达率等参数，给出了单次任务信息效用的解析计算方法。在此基础上，通过仿真计算，得到了非毁伤性攻击、多任务条件下网络效能取值及其随完成任务数量的变化关系。最后，分析了网络攻击范围、攻击策略与网络效能间的关系，评价并检验了与之相关的两点结论。     

Humanitarians at sea: Selective emulation across migrant rescue NGOs in the Mediterranean sea

Between 2014 and 2017, no less than 10 different non-governmental organizations (NGOs) conducted maritime Search and Rescue (SAR) operations off the coast of Libya. By rescuing over 100,000 migrants in three years, these NGOs became the largest provider of SAR in the Mediterranean. The theory of institutionalism suggests that organizations conducting similar activities are likely to converge in a process of mimetic isomorphism, deliberately imitating one another to increase their effectiveness and cope with uncertainty. These 10 SAR NGOs, however, developed two different rescue models: While some rescued migrants and disembarked them in Italian ports, others only simply assisted those in distress until the arrival of another ship transporting them to land. They also cooperated with Italian and European authorities to different degrees. Why did SAR NGOs imitated many elements of existing non-governmental rescue models, but discarded some others? This article argues that differences in material capabilities and organizational role conceptions are crucial to explain why newer SAR NGOs have imitated most but not all of their predecessors’ policies, engaging in a process of “selective emulation.”     

UNAMID: an African solution to a complex case of geopolitical dynamics

This article examines the geopolitical dynamics associated with the African Union (AU) and United Nations hybrid operation in Darfur (UNAMID) from the start of the Darfur conflict in 2003 until the time when UNAMID became fully operational in 2011. It provides an overview of the complex forces and geopolitical dynamics that affected the deployment of UNAMID and shaped its unique hybrid character. It mainly highlights those primary geopolitical factors that hindered the full deployment of UNAMID. It is concluded that this period was a showcase for the newly established AU and its support for its member states, as well as a new approach for the international community to maintain international peace and security in alliance with regional organisations.     

Heterogeneous multitrunking queueing systems with thresholds

Queueing systems with multiple servers are commonly used to model telecommunications systems. But, in general, the service rate of each of the servers is not the same. This fact is indeed true in a communication network where one path (server) may be a terrestrial link and the other (server) a satellite link with its inherent propagation delay. In this article we consider a two-server system where arriving customers are first placed in the queue for the faster server until that queue size reaches a certain threshold, whereupon they are diverted to the slower server. Additional arriving customers are assigned to the slower server until the faster server's queue drops to another lower threshold, at which point arrivals are reassigned to the faster server. We develop an exact mathematical model of the steady-state behavior of each queueing system and a simple analytic approximation.     

Single-stage,multi-product production/inventory systems with lost sales

A production/inventory system consisting of a single processor producing three product types and a warehouse is considered. For each product type, the demand process is assumed to be Poisson and the processing time is phase-type. Excess demand is lost. Products have a priority structure and the processor's attention is shared by all the products according to a switching rule. Production of a product continues until its target level is reached. Then, a switch-over takes place if another product needs the processor's attention. A set-up process takes place every time a switch-over occurs. An (R, r) continuous-review inventory control policy is used to start and stop the production of each product. The underlying Markov chain is studied and its steady-state distribution is obtained recursively. Through the recursive procedure, the steady-state balance equations to be dealt with are significantly reduced to a manageable set. The procedure is implemented on a supercomputer and examples are provided to show its efficiency and stability for a range of model parameters. We analyzed the joint behaviors of the inventory levels of the three products as their demand rates increase. Finally we introduced a cost minimizing objective function to guide design efforts. © 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Shifting power,preventive logic,and the response of the target: Germany,Russia, and the First World War

If a declining state has incentives for preventive war, the rising state should have incentives to delay a confrontation until it is stronger. We develop the theoretical paradox and examine the July 1914 crisis. Why did Russia, rising relative to Germany, not adopt a buying-time strategy? We argue that although most Russian leaders hoped to avoid a confrontation, they feared that the failure to support Serbia would lead to a loss of Russian credibility and a significant setback to Russia’s position in the Balkans, one that could not easily be reversed, even with Russia’s expected increase in relative military power.     

舰艇作战指挥决策模型可信度评估流程分析

舰艇作战指挥决策模型的可信度是一项复杂的系统工程，而评估流程又是这项工程的基础性工作，直接影响到可信度评估的成败。运用了评估学的基本理论对舰艇作战指挥决策模型可信度评估流程进行分析，将可信度评估分为三个阶段，即评估准备阶段、评估实施阶段和评估总结阶段，研究和阐述了这三个阶段的具体工作、要求和标准等，最后，建立了专家评审流程图、可信度评估指标体系以及用于可信度评估指标的数据采集表，分析对比了数据处理方法的优缺点。     

The Skybolt Crisis of 1962: Muddle or Mischief?

This paper revisits the controversy over the cancellation of the US Skybolt air-launched ballistic missile in 1962. Cancellation provoked an acute crisis in Anglo-US relations, which historians and political scientists on both sides of the Atlantic have generally sought to explain in terms of mis-communication. This approach may be termed the 'muddle' thesis. Other analysts have been more suspicious of British intentions and tactics in the run-up to cancellation - the 'mischief' thesis. In order to assess these interpretations, the paper poses three questions. First, were the British fully informed about what was likely to happen, or just selective listeners to Washington opinion? Second, had the British government really staked its hopes unequivocally on Skybolt, or was it from the outset hedging its bets? And third, how were alternatives to Skybolt evaluated? The flows of information between Washington and London are examined to establish what was known, when, and what other choices were open to the British government.     

Rethinking military behavior during the Arab Spring

Why did some Arab militaries remain loyal to authoritarian rulers amid mass uprisings during the Arab Spring while others defected to the opposition? One popular explanation shows this variation with reference to the degree of military institutionalization: institutionalized militaries defected, while patrimonial militaries remained loyal. This article argues that the institutionalization hypothesis does not provide a complete account of the mechanisms through which the degree of military institutionalization leads to either defection or continued loyalty. This shortcoming stems from the fact that scholars have treated military institutionalization as a catch-all concept for three distinct variables: ethnic stacking of the military, patronage distribution, and organizational factionalization. Examining the interaction between these variables highlights the mechanisms through which military defection occurs, and therefore that disaggregating institutionalization into its component parts provides a more complete explanation of military behavior during the Arab Spring.     

On the brink: The resurgence of militant Islam in Central Asia

Since Operation Enduring Freedom, Central Asian militants, such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, have fled to Pakistan from their previous strongholds in Afghanistan. However, many militants have begun returning to Central Asia. Thus questions are raised as to what extent militancy has the potential to thrive with the pending North Atlantic Treaty Organization withdrawal from Afghanistan set for 2014? Is militancy a legitimate security threat to Central Asia? What strategies might militants implement? Thus, this article examines the current state of militancy, analyzes militant trends, introduces Afghanistan and Pakistan into the Central Asian equation, and determines the militants' capability and overall strategy. The article concludes that militant Islam, regardless of its current numbers, remains a viable threat to regional security, Afghanistan will be an essential factor for the future of Central Asian militancy, and the form this re-emergence will take becomes apparent.