未来舰载电子战技术展望(续)

2.7 光电/红外EW技术 (1)现代光电技术的发展及光电对抗 光电对抗装备以其观测力强、探测精度高、反应速度快、识别和分辨能力强、军事对抗应用广、隐蔽及生存能力佳、昼夜不停地全天候(时)工作、不受电磁干扰等优点,备受各国海军重视。光电对抗装备从空中至水面、水下,从警戒探测到跟踪对抗,从鱼雷导弹到软杀伤,无所不在,渗透至现代海战的全过程。其应用数量之大、品种之多、范围之广,表明光电对抗装备在现代海战中占有举足轻重的地位。光电对抗装备的应用程度,直接反映一个国家军事实力的水平。现代光电对抗技术的发展及其军事应用,大大提高了战场监视—侦察     

导弹的监视方法和系统

文章阐述了用多光谱信号分析技术来从探测信号中可靠地提取出导弹的光电信号,从而实现对导弹进行探测、跟踪、计数的方法和技术。采用该方法和技术发展起来的光电监视系统和原有的同类系统相比,将具有复杂性低、可靠性高、重量轻和费用低等特点。     

狙击步枪自动击发技术分析

以狙击步枪训练使用现状为出发点,提出了传统狙击步枪使用与狙击手训练中存在的难题及产生的原因,分析了发展自动击发狙击步枪的必要性;提出了包括系统组成、工作流程、目标探测、光电探测与瞄准镜融合等在内的自动击发狙击步枪总体技术方案;提出发展自动击发狙击步枪所需的关键技术,并进行了可行性分析;对新一代狙击步枪的发展方向及其带来的深远影响进行了探索。     

光电/弹炮结合防空系统的综合设计

雷达有源跟踪定位一直是火控系统的主要侦察探测方式,由于雷达对抗技术的发展,有源雷达设备的作战效能大为降低.在火控系统中,光电无源跟踪定位可代替雷达的部分功能,其开发潜力备受关注.介绍了光电/弹炮结合防空系统的重要作用,论述了光电探测和弹炮一体化设计的基本结构和功能, 提出了系统综合设计的主要研究内容和关键技术,探索了光电信息火力引导的技术途径并给出了一种基于光电探测的弹丸脱靶量测量技术.     

光电对抗技术的发展现状及未来展望

近些年以来,光电对抗技术以其精度高、全天候、抗电磁干扰能力强等无可比拟的优点受到普遍认同,已成为一个日新月异、飞速发展的新兴领域。光电装备的应用已遍及情报侦察、预警探测、武器系统、软硬杀伤、精确打击、导航定位等各个方面。本文在系统阐述光电对抗技术的发展现状的基础上,对未来光电对抗技术的发展趋势进行了展望。     

累积跟踪概率的舰载主动声纳作用距离衡量方法

通过对水面舰艇声纳主动工作方式探测概率及作用距离的分析,探讨了目前常用的单次探测概率衡量方式所产生的问题,提出了累积跟踪概率的衡量方法,并结合某作战训练系统,应用蒙特卡洛法进行了仿真计算,计算结果表明,该方法可有效满足舰载声纳主动工作方式探测概率及作用距离的衡量需求,可为水面舰艇反潜作战的配置方法和指挥决策提供较高的参考价值。     

蛙人探测声纳系统研究进展

蛙人探测声纳是探测水面及水中蛙人等小目标的重要设备,近年来在理论与技术上得到了长足的发展。文章从蛙人探测理论与技术、蛙人声纳硬件、软件和综合防御系统集成等方面对当前蛙人探测声纳系统的研究进展进行了系统阐述;指出除了信号处理外,在组网使用、战术部署、多类型传感器集成和水下工程等领域是蛙人探测声纳研究的薄弱环节,需要更多的研究实践。随着技术不断成熟,蛙人探测声纳在今后军用和民用领域都将有广阔的应用前景。     

光学图样光电探测的动态仿真

以圆孔夫琅和弗衍射图样的光电探测为例,介绍了对光学图样的光电探测进行动态仿真的方法。     

直升机对鱼雷预警的可行性及战术模型

防御鱼雷是水面舰艇的重要作战任务之一,仅靠舰载声纳难以满足对鱼雷预警的需要.首先分析了直升机对鱼雷预警的可行性,研究了多种探测器材的协同预警模型,并对直升机吊放声纳和声纳浮标的预警模型进行了探讨.可对提高水面舰艇防御鱼雷的能力提供参考.     

某型激光探测装置防干扰技术研究

激光由于它亮度高、单色性、方向性好等特点,目前已广泛应用于近炸引信技术中。作为激光近炸引信的核心部分,激光探测装置在武器系统中占有重要地位,但同时也是光电干扰的重要对象之一。本文对光电干扰的特点进行了详细的介绍,重点对主动式脉冲体制激光探测装置的防干扰技术进行了深入的研究,同时提出了一些常用的防干扰技术措施及鉴定试验方法。     

Dangerous work: Terrorism against U.S. diplomats

The goal of diplomats is to represent their countries’ interests through diplomacy, not arms. Because they are not military personnel, they may be perceived as at lower risk of being the target of terrorists. However, recent events have called this perception into question. Despite this danger, there has been little research on terrorist attacks against diplomats. Drawing on the terrorism studies literature, this article argues that diplomats are targeted more than non-diplomatic targets in countries where certain U.S. foreign policies are implemented. An empirical analysis of 471 attacks against U.S. diplomats from 1970 to 2011 reveals that while U.S. alliances and foreign aid increase the likelihood of attacks against diplomats, U.S. military intervention and civil war, on the other hand, increase the risk of terrorism against non-diplomatic targets. This finding is relevant because it shows terrorist attacks against diplomats result from certain types of foreign policy.     

Reward,punishment or inducement? US economic and military aid, 1946–1996

If the US has wielded power as global hegemon, then there should be evidence of a linkage between American resources and the ability to influence behavior. However, there is widespread disagreement on how this power is manifested (see Krause, ). Methodological and epistemological issues have hampered empirical studies of US hegemonic behavior. For example, does the US reward past behavior or does it offer inducements for future behavior? We document and discuss these issues in terms of the aid–foreign policy compliance nexus. The empirical portion of our paper tests whether US military and non‐military aid are correlated with foreign policy similarity. The main merits of our study are that: (1) we test a new measure of foreign policy similarity developed by Signorino and Ritter () and compiled by Gartzke et al. (); (2) we relax the causality issue and test using vector autoregression (VAR) for 76 developing countries; and (3) our time horizon is a minimum of 30 years for each country. Our central finding is that aid is most often used as a reward. More specifically, foreign policy similarity leads to greater economic aid for most African countries, foreign policy similarity leads to greater military aid for a majority of Latin American states, and there are no overarching patterns for Asia and the Middle East. We discuss the implications of our findings in the context of the bargaining and structural approaches to statecraft.     

Does military expenditure increase external debt? Evidence from Asia

This article empirically explores the effect of military spending on external debt, using a sample of ten Asian countries over the years from 1990 to 2011. The Hausman’s test suggests that the random-effects model is preferable; however, both random-effects and fixed-effects models are used in this research. The empirical results show that the effect of military spending on external debt is positive, while the effects of foreign exchange reserves and of economic growth on external debt are negative. For developing countries caught in security dilemma, military expenditure often requires an increase in external debt, which may affect economic development negatively.     

Modeling the effects of military tension on foreign trade: Some preliminary empirical findings from the Greek-Turkish rivalry

In this paper we examine the effects of irreversibility on foreign trade in the case where there are two sources of uncertainty. The two sources considered in this paper are uncertainty arising from business risk and uncertainty arising from military tension. The resulting insights are then used to model the import markets of Greece and Turkey. These models are then empirically estimated, in order to ascertain, on the one hand whether there is evidence that irreversibility is indeed a factor on the supply side of these markets, and on the other hand, the direction of the incidence of military tension on foreign trade. An index of military tension is used for the two countries, based on the number of airspace violations by Turkish military aircraft of Greek airspace.     

Defence industries adjusting to change 1

This paper analyses the impact of terrorist activity on international tourist flows. To this end, we have estimated a cross‐sectional gravity equation for tourism from the G‐7 countries to a sample of 134 destinations over the period 2001–2003. Within this framework, we evaluate the deviation from ‘normal’ tourist flows due to terrorist activity, which is considered as negative advertising for the affected country. The analysis suggests that both domestic victims and international attacks are relevant factors when foreign tourists make their choice. This result is robust under alternative specifications. Moreover, the impact of terrorism is more severe in developing countries.     

舰船作战系统仿真技术应用研究

阐述了系统仿真中涉及的新技术,介绍了仿真新技术在国内外舰船作战系统中的应用情况,分析了我国舰船仿真技术的发展现状及与国外的主要差距,提出了舰船作战系统仿真应用的建议。     

A ‘transparent gold’ rush?

Abstract

The signing of a new treaty on the equitable sharing of the Nile waters – signed last May in Kampala by Rwanda, Ethiopia, Uganda and Tanzania – has the potential of derailing relations with Sudan and Egypt. According to the latter countries, this new agreement replaces the 1959 Nile agreement – that awarded them with 90 per cent control over the Nile water – giving other Nile Basin countries the possibility to implement water-related projects in agriculture and energy. This new development, according to Egypt and Sudan, places their water level security in jeopardy. Furthermore, the use of land grabs and water consumption for food security by wealthy foreign countries contributes to the sensitive situation the nine Nile Basin countries are now facing. Water is a red line when it comes to Egypt and Sudan and the future of the whole region depends on whether this line will be crossed.     

POOR PERFORMERS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

World political events since 9/11 have refocused attention in the development, foreign and security policy spheres on ‘poor performing’ countries, owing to the possible threat that some countries pose to the international community. These countries, referred to by the World Bank as low-income countries under stress (LICUS), are both countries that lack a certain minimum of effective governmental authority and countries that have sufficient effective governmental authority but fail to use it for purposes of development. There is a pronounced global interest in integrating poor performers into the world community and its structures. The stress here is on using development co-operation and to identify meaningful points of departure for co-operation with poor performers.     

公安边防部队参与涉外联合行动的现状和发展趋势探析

目前公安边防部队参与涉外联合行动主要包括联合执法打击跨国犯罪、承担维和任务维护世界和平、参与涉外联合演习打击恐怖主义等形式。随着国家间联合协作的不断加强,公安边防部队参与涉外联合行动朝着合作范围不断扩大、合作模式更加多样、执法一体化日益明显的趋势发展。     

Dynamic Winner-Take-All Conflict

This paper empirically investigates the importance of financial and political variables in determining debt rescheduling probabilities in Turkey for 1955–2000. The problem of sovereign debt default and rescheduling has been the subject of substantial academic research during the last two decades. There has been criticism of models of developing countries’ indebtedness and rescheduling that rely solely on some economic or financial predictors related to country debt, the foreign exchange sector or the domestic economic situation. Using probit analysis, this paper indicates that financial variables are important determinants of rescheduling probabilities. However, political variables are not significant in our models.