MAD: Mathematical analysis of downtime

The MAD model presents a mathematic treatment of the relationship between aircraft reliability and maintainability, system manning and inspection policies, scheduling and sortie length, and aircraft downtime. Log normal distributions are postulated for subsystem repair times and simultaneous repair of malfunctions is assumed. The aircraft downtime for maintenance is computed with the distribution of the largest of k log normal distributions. Waiting time for maintenance men is calculated either by using a multiple-channel queuing model or by generating the distribution of the number of maintenance men required and comparing this to the number of men available to determine the probability of waiting at each inspection.     

Quality control chart design under Jidoka

We consider design of control charts in the presence of machine stoppages that are exogenously imposed (as under jidoka practices). Each stoppage creates an opportunity for inspection/repair at reduced cost. We first model a single machine facing opportunities arriving according to a Poisson process, develop the expressions for its operating characteristics and construct the optimization problem for economic design of a control chart. We, then, consider the multiple machine setting where individual machine stoppages may create inspection/repair opportunities for other machines. We develop exact expressions for the cases when all machines are either opportunity‐takers or not. On the basis of an approximation for the all‐taker case, we then propose an approximate model for the mixed case. In a numerical study, we examine the opportunity taking behavior of machines in both single and multiple machine settings and the impact of such practices on the design of an X – Q C chart. Our findings indicate that incorporating inspection/repair opportunities into QC chart design may provide considerable cost savings. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2009     

基于Petri网的维修过程建模仿真方法研究

通过引进老化令牌对随机Petri网进行理论扩展，提出了一种基于老化令牌的随机Petri网（SPNAT）的维修过程建模与仿真方法，有效地解决了传统维修性建模方法在多个失效率不同的部件系统所存在的建模复杂和求解困难等问题，并通过实例验证了该建模方法的有效性和优越性。     

Periodic replacement when minimal repair costs vary with time

A policy of periodic replacement with minimal repair at failure is considered for a complex system. Under such a policy the system is replaced at multiples of some period T while minimal repair is performed at any intervening system failures. The cost of a minimal repair to the system is assumed to be a nonde-creasing function of its age. A simple expression is derived for the expected minimal repair cost in an interval in terms of the cost function and the failure rate of the system. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of an optimal replacement interval are exhibited in the case where the system life distribution is strictly increasing failure rate (IFR).     

A two-machine repair model with variable repair rate

A two-unit cold standby production system with one repairman is considered. After inspection of a failed unit the repairman chooses either a slow or a fast repair rate to carry out the corresponding amount of work. At system breakdown the repairman has an additional opportunity to switch to the fast rate. If there are no fixed costs associated with system breakdowns, then the policy which minimizes longrun average costs is shown to be a two-dimensional control limit rule. If fixed costs are incurred every time the system breaks down, then the optimal policy is not necessarily of control limit type. This is illustrated by a counterexample. Furthermore, we present several performance measures for this maintenance system controlled by a two-dimensional control limit rule. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

基于可用度的电子设备告警系统检查策略研究

针对电子设备告警系统故障具有隐蔽性的特点,考虑检查不完善的因素,运用延迟时间概念,以系统期望可用度最大为优化目标,建立了电子设备隐蔽功能故障检查优化模型。提出了优化检查间隔期的算法,并通过实际案例验证了模型的有效性。     

有限维修能力下多级保障系统装备时变可用度评估及保障方案优化

备件库存和站点维修能力是影响备件维修周转的重要因素，制约装备使用效果。针对备件需求随任务阶段动态变化的装备保障方案评估和优化问题，考虑站点维修能力对备件维修过程的影响，结合METRIC建模方法和动态排队理论，建立了有限维修能力下多级保障系统装备时变可用度评估模型。在评估模型基础之上，以保障费用为优化目标，装备可用度为约束条件，建立了任务期内多级保障系统保障方案优化模型。以任务期内的最低可用度所对应的备件短缺数为观测值，分析了各项资源的边际效益值，采用边际优化算法对各项资源进行优化计算。算例分析表明，评估模型能够计算多级保障系统任务期内各阶段装备可用度；保障方案优化模型和方法能够得到各项保障资源的优化配置方案。提出的模型和优化方法能够为装备保障人员制定合理的保障方案提供决策支持。     

基于风险评估的检测与修理决策模型

研究了基于故障风险的检测与维修策略，运用威布尔比例风险模型建立系统故障率与工作时间及所处状态的关系。分析了两类基于间接状态信息维修决策的风险，建立了系统检测及维修策略的决策树，通过比较检测与不检测情况下的期望费用确定最优的检测间隔。算例表明，所提出的方法能够有效控制系统运行风险，降低系统运行费用。     

有限维修能力下多级保障系统装备时变可用度评估及保障方案优化

备件库存和站点维修能力是影响备件维修周转的重要因素,制约着装备的使用效果。针对备件需求随任务阶段动态变化时装备保障方案的评估和优化问题,考虑站点维修能力对备件维修过程的影响,结合METRIC建模方法和动态排队理论,建立了有限维修能力下多级保障系统装备时变可用度评估模型。在评估模型基础之上,以保障费用为优化目标、装备可用度为约束条件,建立任务期内多级保障系统保障方案优化模型。以任务期内的最低可用度所对应的备件短缺数为观测值,分析各项资源的边际效益值,采用边际优化算法对各项资源进行优化计算。算例分析表明,评估模型能够计算多级保障系统任务期内各阶段装备可用度;保障方案优化模型和方法能够得到各项保障资源的优化配置方案。提出的模型和优化方法能够为装备保障人员制订合理的保障方案提供决策支持。     

相控阵天线阵面两级备件优化配置模型

针对相控阵天线阵面备件配置存在的冗余性强、批量送修、多级维修等现实问题,综合考虑备件费用、维修能力以及库存策略之间的关系,建立了基于定期补给的两级备件优化配置模型。给出了系统的故障件维修周转过程和维修备件的定期补给过程,在分析备件、库存、维修能力之间关系的基础上,结合成批到达的排队理论,建立了系统的供应可用度模型。以备件配置费用最小为目标、以系统供应可用度为约束条件,建立了系统的备件优化配置模型,并通过边际效益分析法对模型进行了求解。通过算例仿真与分析对模型进行了验证。结果表明:构建的备件配置能够较好地解决相控阵天线阵面的备件配置问题,具有一定的优越性。     

A survey of preventive maintenance models for stochastically deteriorating single-unit systems

A survey of the research done on preventive maintenance is presented. The scope of the present survey is on the research published after the 1976 paper by Pierskalla and Voelker [98]. This article includes optimization models for repair, replacement, and inspection of systems subject to stochastic deterioration. A classification scheme is used that categorizes recent research into inspection models, minimal repair models, shock models, or miscellaneous replacement models.     

基于状态的检查与修理综合决策模型

分析了单部件系统退化过程的特点，建立了基于状态的检查与修理决策模型。该模型根据系统的当前状态来决定检查与修理，通过分析计算系统在一个更新周期内平均检查次数、预防性维修及修复性故障的概率，建立维修费用与检查问隔及预防性维修阈值的关系，以平均维修费用最小为目标，优化检查间隔及预防性维修阈值。最后运用Matlab对模型进行数值计算，结果表明，模型能有效地降低维修费用。     

基于改进遗传算法的油料调拨优化

为实现油料快速调拨运输，利用改进的遗传算法求解油料调拨优化问题，采用了一种受贪婪算法启发的新的交叉算子和变异算子，对比模拟退火算法等其他算法而言，具有较好的鲁棒性，能很好地解决油料调拨运输过程中多任务多地点的油料调拨运输问题。     

舰空导弹武器系统操控人员操作可靠性评估

针对舰空导弹武器系统操控人员操作使用影响问题,根据经典的人行为的S-O-R模式,通过串联模型框架,构建了武器系统操控人员操作可靠性评估模型,以评定武器系统操控人员的操作可靠度。其中,通过贝叶斯网络,评定武器系统操控人员分别在感知、判断决策和行动阶段的可靠性。即由专家根据实践经验,给定武器系统操控人员单个失误行为的似然率;通过采用模糊综合评价方法,评定武器系统操控人员单个失误行为的先验概率。     

机场跑道抢修能力评估研究

机场跑道抢修能力评估是工程保障能力建设的基础性工作。通过对影响机场跑道抢修能力的因素进行系统分析，建立了符合实际情况的评估指标体系，提出了机场跑道抢修能力模糊综合评估模型。最后，运用模型对西南某机场的跑道抢修能力进行评估，根据评估结果，对提高该机场的跑道抢修能力建设提出了针对性建议。     

Optimal maintenance policies for a safety‐critical system and its deteriorating sensor

We consider the integrated problem of optimally maintaining an imperfect, deteriorating sensor and the safety‐critical system it monitors. The sensor's costless observations of the binary state of the system become less informative over time. A costly full inspection may be conducted to perfectly discern the state of the system, after which the system is replaced if it is in the out‐of‐control state. In addition, a full inspection provides the opportunity to replace the sensor. We formulate the problem of adaptively scheduling full inspections and sensor replacements using a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) model. The objective is to minimize the total expected discounted costs associated with system operation, full inspection, system replacement, and sensor replacement. We show that the optimal policy has a threshold structure and demonstrate the value of coordinating system and sensor maintenance via numerical examples. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 64: 399–417, 2017     

Optimal burn‐in procedure for periodically inspected systems

Burn‐in is a widely used method to improve the quality of products or systems after they have been produced. In this paper, we study burn‐in procedure for a system that is maintained under periodic inspection and perfect repair policy. Assuming that the underlying lifetime distribution of a system has an initially decreasing and/or eventually increasing failure rate function, we derive upper and lower bounds for the optimal burn‐in time, which maximizes the system availability. Furthermore, adopting an age replacement policy, we derive upper and lower bounds for the optimal age parameter of the replacement policy for each fixed burn‐in time and a uniform upper bound for the optimal burn‐in time given the age replacement policy. These results can be used to reduce the numerical work for determining both optimal burn‐in time and optimal replacement policy. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Spares stocking policies for repairable items with dependent repair times

This paper analyzes the problem of determining desirable spares inventory levels for repairable items with dependent repair times. The problem is important for repairable products such as aircraft engines which can have very large investment in spares inventory levels. While existing models can be used to determine optimal inventory spares levels when repair times are independent, the practical considerations of limited repair shop capacity and prioritized shop dispatching rules combine to make repair times not independent of one another. In this research a simulation model of a limited capacity repair facility with prioritized scheduling is used to explore a variety of heuristic approaches to the spares stocking decision. The heuristics are also compared with use of a model requiring independent repair times (even though that assumption is not valid here). The results show that even when repair time dependencies are present, the performance of a model which assumes independent repair times is quite good.     

基于UML—BD的通信装备战场抢修系统建模研究

UML-BD(UML Based on DEVS)模型是运用DEVS规范技术对离散事件系统的UML模型进行层次化、模块化。针对UML-BD建模技术的特点和通信装备战场抢修系统的结构,运用UML-BD建模方法构建通信装备战场抢修系统的UML-BD模型,并对其进行了较为深入的研究分析。     

Bayesian enhanced decision making for deteriorating repairable systems with preventive maintenance

Since a system and its components usually deteriorate with age, preventive maintenance (PM) is often performed to restore or keep the function of a system in a good state. Furthermore, PM is capable of improving the health condition of the system and thus prolongs its effective age. There has been a vast amount of research to find optimal PM policies for deteriorating repairable systems. However, such decisions involve numerous uncertainties and the analyses are typically difficult to perform because of the scarcity of data. It is therefore important to make use of all information in an efficient way. In this article, a Bayesian decision model is developed to determine the optimal number of PM actions for systems which are maintained according to a periodic PM policy. A non‐homogeneous Poisson process with a power law failure intensity is used to describe the deteriorating behavior of the repairable system. It is assumed that the status of the system after a PM is somewhere between as good as new for a perfect repair and as good as old for a minimal repair, and for failures between two preventive maintenances, the system undergoes minimal repairs. Finally, a numerical example is given and the results of the proposed approach are discussed after performing sensitivity analysis. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008