专家系统优化排列准则及时间估计模型研究

军用仿真系统中 ,专家系统作为一个决策软件包 ,满足整个软件系统运行的性能需要 ,因此研究专家系统的推理时间是必要的。专家系统的推理时间与其推理模式、知识库结构等因素有关。针对知识库结构 ,利用时间齐次马尔可夫链为专家系统知识库进行建模 ,并给出了相应的时间估计模型及其排列准则 ,从而可以研究专家系统的实时性。     

军事仿真概念模型及其开发过程研究

军事仿真概念模型是对现实军事世界中事物或现象的一种独立于具体仿真实现的表示方法。规范的仿真概念模型是一种“认识标准”,是军事领域专家与仿真技术人员沟通、协作,提高仿真模型正确性、互操作与重用性的基础。本文从仿真概念模型的内涵、作用与分类出发,探讨了仿真概念模型在军事仿真开发中的位置和角色。     

基于分层结构的故障诊断专家系统RDSC方案

针对军事指挥自动化系统中的硬件设备,运用分层结构专家系统技术实现对系统的远程故障诊断与维护支持,提出了远程维护和故障修复支持技术模型,并对该模型的专家系统技术进行探讨,给出了基于CLIPS专家系统的一个实现模型,最后阐述了专家系统中推理机与知识库的设计和实现.     

‘Blackmailing the army’ – ‘Strategic Military Refusal’ as policy and doctrine enforcement: the formation of a new security agent

The study shows how ‘strategic military refusal’ in Israel developed as a rational and institutional means to influence security policies. As opposed to the perspective that sees military refusal as a spontaneous individual act, the study illustrates how organizations operate to distribute military refusal in order to pressure decision-makers to change their military policies. This strategy has proven to be effective when the military is involved with groups that threaten it with refusal – which threatens the military's operational ability and its official and apolitical image. These include soldiers whose civilian authorities, rather than their military commanders, are perceived as an epistemic authority regarding security issues. The case study refers to the impact of strategic military refusal in Israel on security policies and the military doctrine. This was influenced by leftist groups, which, although they belonged to the parliamentary opposition, had dominant presence in the military ranks. Furthermore, the study examines the effect of the use of strategic military refusal on the model of military recruitment.     

关于建立具有我军特色的院校教学工作评估专家系统的思考

对军队工程技术院校本科教学工作的评估,从方案制定到软件设计都作了一些思考。就软件系统所涉及的程序结构、计算方法、操作环境、技术接口等方面的问题进行了探讨,为今后研制该软件系统做了充分的准备。     

JavaKBB:集成框架与产生式规则的专家系统工具

描述了一个专家系统工具JavaKBB,其目标是设计一个容易使用、方便扩展的专家系统开发工具,可以同时表示领域概念知识与过程知识;既可以运行于商用操作系统Windows等,也可以运行于中标麒麟等军用国产操作系统。为此,提出了一种集成框架与产生式规则的知识表示模式,定义了五种抽象层次以设计一个专家系统,包括知识原语、知识单元、知识部件、知识库以及知识系统;在此基础上基于Java语言设计并实现了JavaKBB。JavaKBB的另外一个重要特征是它能以XML格式保存知识库,具备与其他知识库进行交互的潜力。目前,JavaKBB已经用来构建慢性肝炎防治专家系统、装备辅助决策系统等。     

MODELLING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DEFENSE SPENDING AND ECONOMIC GROWTH FOR THE FIJI ISLANDS

The goal of this paper is to examine the nexus between GDP and military expenditure. We model this relationship within a multivariate framework by including exports in the model. We use the recently developed bounds testing approach to cointegration and find that there is a long run relationship among the variables when GDP is the endogenous variable. Normalizing on GDP and using four different estimators, we find that in the long run both military expenditure and exports have a positive impact on GDP. Finally, using the Granger causality test, we find that there is evidence for military expenditure Granger causing exports and exports Granger causing GDP, implying that military expenditure indirectly Granger causes GDP in the short run. In the long run, we find that both military expenditure and exports Granger cause GDP for Fiji. Our findings are consistent with the Keynesian school of thought, leading us to derive some policy implications.     

用于军事态势估计的协作知识模型

分布式人工智能（ＤＡＩ）是ＡＩ领域的一个新分支。ＤＡＩ研究的主要目的在于分析和设计大型复杂的协作智能系统。本文以军事智能决策过程中的重要环节──态势估计任务为背景,提出了用于实现分布式协作求解的知识表示框架ＤＥＳＷ系统。文章简要分析了军事态势估计领域背景,然后从系统设计的三个方面依次介绍了ＤＥＳＷ的系统组织模型、主体概念模型和分布式协作推理模型。     

对潜搜索的灰色整数规划模型

在对潜搜索中,针对搜索兵力武器装备战技性能的优劣、指挥人员的军政素质的高低、水文气象条件的好坏等因素均会随着时间的推移而发生变化的特点,为了取得最佳的搜潜效果,需要根据时间变化给不同的作战单元分派不同的作战任务.将整数规划与灰色模型相结合,建立了对潜搜索的灰色整数规划模型,给出了检验方法和求解步骤,并举例分析说明.经验证,该模型精度等级较高,且能使各作战单元的搜索效率达到最佳,因此,可资对潜搜索兵力分配时借鉴.     

军用飞机采购价格的RBF神经网络预测

分析了现代军用飞机采购价格估算中存在的问题.应用基于k-均值聚类算法的RBF神经网络建立了军用飞机采购价格预测模型,并采用该模型对某型军用飞机采购价格进行了预测.与多元线性回归和BP神经网络的预测结果对比,建立的新型军用飞机采购价格预测模型具有更高的预测精度,为军用飞机采购价格预测提供了一种新的有效方法.     

Rethinking Military Virtue Ethics in an Age of Unmanned Weapons

Although most styles of military ethics are hybrids that draw on multiple ethical theories, they are usually based primarily on the model of Aristotelian virtue ethics. Virtue ethics is well-suited for regulating the conduct of soldiers who have to make quick decisions on the battlefield, but its applicability to military personnel is threatened by the growing use of unmanned weapon systems. These weapons disrupt virtue ethics’ institutional and cultural basis by changing what it means to display virtue and transforming the roles soldiers perform and the nature of the military profession itself. I argue that in light of these challenges to virtue ethics, at least as it is traditionally understood within the armed forces, soldiers operating unmanned weapons require a more heavily rule-based approach to military ethics.     

A comparative study of demand forecasting techniques for military helicopter spare parts

This paper deals with techniques applicable to predicting spare parts demand for military helicopters. The military helicopter is a distinct weapons system, whose unique configuration may preclude the direct application of forecasting techniques which have proved successful for other weapon systems. Furthermore, although the military helicopter has become extremely important tactically in modern warfare, it has received scant attention in terms of research concerning its supply support. Specifically, this paper summarizes research done to measure and compare the forecasting accuracy of six mathematical models, as they were applied to three prominent military helicopters. In addition, the paper describes attempts that were made to define, where possible, the conditions under which a specific forecasting technique might be applicable. In general, it is shown that the most accurate set of helicopter spare parts demand forecasts are produced by a second order polynomial exponential smoothing model. This model is observed to have most accurately described the highly volatile, and upward-trended demand time series which were the subject of the study.     

From the sociology of the (military) profession to the sociology of (security) expertise: the case of European national defence universities

Few would disagree that European militaries have experienced dramatic changes since the end of the Cold War. Much of the discussion on these changes to date has referred to the concept of professionalism. However, this approach became outdated as professions in post-industrialist societies entered a state of crisis as a result of growing competition from a variety of competitors. The present study adapts a new framework from the sociology of knowledge literature – sociology of expertise – into one, sociology of security expertise, which is suitable for study of contemporary armed forces. Its utility is demonstrated through analysis of five European professional military education institutions. The analysis shows that European military organisations are transiting, albeit in various degrees, from one form of social organisation of military knowledge production – associated with the military education model common to traditional military colleges – toward another, which is related to the military education model of national defence universities. Hence it is highly probable that European military organisations lose, either voluntary or unintentionally, their professional character and can no longer be unquestionably assumed to be military professions. Hence, they should be analysed hereafter using the sociology of security expertise framework.     

军事专家系统的谓词Petri网描述及其时延分析

介绍了一种基于产生式系统的军事专家系统结构,用谓词Ｐｅｔｒｉ网描述了其不精确推理过程和推理网的动态推理过程。给出了一种适合于平行处理的谓词Ｐｃｔｒｉ网模型并对军事专家系统的时延进行了分析。     

军用飞机可用度概念模型及仿真

使用可用度是军用飞机战备完好性的重要度量标准.运用传统的解析法计算使用可用度有其弊端.以军用飞机使用及维修保障过程中各个系统要素为基础建立了使用可用度概念模型;根据概念模型运用仿真软件Extend建立了仿真模型.仿真结果表明模型运行稳定可靠,模型中各模块算法合理有效,实现了模型解算目标,可信度高.从而为飞机可用度研究提供了一种新方法.     

小子样方法在电子对抗仿真试验中的应用

小子样问题是武器装备试验必须解决的客观问题,实现小子样试验是武器装备试验追求的最高境界.仿真试验作为武器装备试验的一种手段,以其可重复、大容量等不可比拟的优势,受到有关专家的高度重视.首先从武器装备试验实际需求出发,阐述了小子样问题在仿真试验中的意义及其实现途径,最后给出了正交设计法在某型雷达侦察机仿真试验中的应用实例.通过与常规试验方法相比,其提高试验效率6倍多,试验结果分析也更科学合理,军事经济效益明显.     

面向决策的一体化建模方法及其在兵力筹划中的应用

在对军事决策问题的主要特点进行分析的基础上,提出从军事概念模型到数学模型再到定性推理模型的一体化建模思想.以空军航空兵遂行直接航空火力支援任务为想定背景,根据EATI模板,利用基于UML的Rose工具依次对想定任务的实体、任务、交互等进行分析;对于兵力筹划中的结构化问题建立了机会约束多目标规划数学模型;对于非结构化问题则构造了推理机,推理机体现了定量与定性相结合的决策分析思想.最后,以一个实例验证文章思路的可行性.     

合同战术级军事专家系统研制

文中以合同战术级军事专家系统的实践为基础,以逻辑型语言为主要实现语言,描述基于黑板模型的问题求解策略,使用框架与产生式规则相结合的知识表示方法,以及运用基于预制文本与模糊文法的解释机制等。应用表明,本文提出和采用的方法与技术取得了明显的效益。     

毛泽东军事思想对古代兵学文化的传承与发展

毛泽东军事思想植根于中国古代兵学文化的土壤,它的战争观、军事伦理价值观、战争谋略法等思想,与中国古代社会"仁战"、"义战"、"以民为本"、"以奇制胜"、"以礼治军"等战略方法、战略思想一脉相承,同时也是对古代兵学文化的创造性发展,是中国革命战争实践、马列主义军事思想和古代兵学文化相结合的产物。     

Mirror,mirror on the wall,who is the most offensive of them all? – Explaining the offensive bias in military tactical thinking

This article explores why the offensive predominates military tactical thinking. With survey results showing an offensive bias among 60 per cent of senior Swedish officers and as many as 80 per cent in the case of the army, it is clear that this is not just a problem of the past but is equally relevant today. The article asks why there is a tendency to perceive and understand offensive tactics as the preferred choice and the way to conduct battle that should be encouraged and preferred. Drawing on existing research and the findings of a pilot study, ten propositions for why the offensive bias exists are tested using a mixed-method approach. Based on the findings, the article develops a model to understand why the offensive dominates military tactical thinking. It is found that the two key constitutive factors behind the offensive bias are military culture and education. These factors most directly and profoundly influence an officer’s identity, perceptions, and thinking. Military culture and education, in turn, work as a prism for four other factors: military history, the theory and principles of war, doctrine and TTPs, and psychological factors.