美国2019财年国防采购与研发预算

作为国防预算的重要组成部分，国防采购与研发预算是体现国家军事力量的基本指标，也是决定未来战争胜 负的关键因素。美国2019财年的国防预算动态反映了美国 《 国家安全战略》和 《 国防战略》的政策与战略要求，2019财年国防采购与研发预算的显著增长更是体现了其 “ 军事优先”与 “ 大国竞争”新的国家战略选择。本文对美国2019财年的国防采购和研发预算进行了系统梳理，重点阐述了美国2019财年国防采购和研发预算的主要内容，并分析了美国国防采购和研发预算的变化与特点，最后得出了影响和启示。     

美国军费侧重亚太

日前,美政府正式向国会提交2013财年国防预算需求。根据这份预算案,2013财年美国国防总支出为6140亿美元,比2012财年国防预算减少约320亿美元。仔细分析这份提案会发现,美国防预算总数虽然略有减少,军费流向的重点却更加突出。该预算案承奥巴马新军事战略之衣钵,清晰勾勒出美军未来的建军方向：即战略重心持续东移,加紧对中国实施军事围堵。     

美国2003财年国防预算将大幅增加

美国总统布什于2月4日向国会提交了2003财年国防预算申请,总额为3790亿美元(此数额比2002财年上涨480亿美元)。具体内容如下: 反恐战争:布什增加了大约94亿美元用于加强美军打击恐怖主义的能力,其中30亿美元用于反恐活动、部队防护和国土安全;12亿美元用于继续在美国上空进行空中巡逻;其余用于增加弹药、通信设施和其他必需品。     

美国军费连涨12年

10月28号，美国总统奥巴马在白宫签署了总额为6800亿美元的《2010财年国防授权法案》，相比上一财年的国防预算总额，新的国防预算案增加近700亿美元。美国军费也“意外实现了自1998年以来的连续12年增长。     

美国2002财年国防预算分析

美国2002财年国防预算是美国新总统布什入主白宫后的第一个国防预算计划,是布什政府的国家安全战略和美军建军方向的经济表现。该预算在绝对规模、相对规模和内部结构上都出现了一些新特点。文章依据美国国防部《2002财年国防预算》蓝皮书,对2002财年美国国防预算的特点以及原因进行了分析,并得出了可供借鉴的启示。     

美国1998财年国防预算分析

美国１９９８财年国防预算分析军事经济学院宋红丽,刘少峰关键词美国国防预算,国防预算分析美国国防部于１９９７年２月６日提交国会的１９９８财年国防预算,是根据现行《六年国防计划》制订的,也是１９９７财年国防预算的继续。该预算列出的项目,预示着美国当前国防...     

美国出台2007年度军费预算

美联社2月6日报道说,美国总统布什向国会提交了总额为4393亿美元的2007年度国防开支预算案,资金数额比上年度增加近7%。如果这份预算方案得到国会认可,那么这将是美国连续多年大幅增加军费开支。那么,4393亿美元究竟是一个怎样的概念?这块“大蛋糕”将如何瓜分?美国的这一举措将对未来世界局势和军事走向产生什么样的影响?四大项切分2006财年八成军费美国军费分为军事人员、作战与保养、采购、研发与鉴定、军事建设、家庭住房、应急开支、周转与管理资金等十余个项目。据有关资料显示,在2006财年军费预算中,仅军事人员、作战与保养、武器装…     

“预算战争”美国政府削减巨额国防开支的艰难博弈

美国时间2009年10月28日，巴拉克·奥巴马总统签署了2010财年国防授权法案．此次预算授权数额达到6802亿美元，为二战后的最高水平。虽然质疑和反对声音不断，但这仍意味着奥巴马总统在削减庞大的国防开支计划上取得了一定程度的胜利。奥巴马表示，经过政府与国会双方的共同努力．此次授权法案通过取消不必要的武器采购计划，节省了“数百亿美元”资金，未来还将采取进一步措施更大幅度削减国防开支。     

美国2004财年国防预算分析

文章综合分析了2004财年美国国防预算的特点和保障重点。指出2004财年美国国防预算首次全面反映了美国新国防战略,重点保障全球反恐作战、部队转型、新型武器系统的开发和装备、信息战、导弹防御以及军人福利待遇的改善等方面。     

美国2003年军费往哪儿花?

继美国总统布什新年伊始签署高达3180亿美元的2002财年国防预算不久,美国国防部最近又提议大幅度提高2003财年的国防预算,其增加幅度将是20年来美国军费开支增加中最大的一次,总额将达到3790亿美元。 这3790亿美元的巨额预算中还不包括能源部每年用于有关核武器防御计划的150亿美元专项预算,也不包括布什政府用于国土防卫申请追加的380亿美元预算。那么如此巨额的军费开支,美军到底怎么分配、如何花销呢?     

The Shifting Determinants of Defense Spending Preferences Between 1980 and 2008

This paper analyzes defense spending preferences using ordered logit regression analysis of American National Election Survey data from 1980 through 2008. Our results indicate that as opposed to having the ideology of isolationism, political party identification towards the Republican Party or having economic stakes in defense spending always play a significant role in increased preference towards defense spending. Demographic groups such as Native Americans, Hispanics, and retired women, a demographic subgroup, display generally positive preferences towards defense spending. Somewhat surprisingly, another demographic subgroup, ‘security moms,’ do not show a preference. Our analysis also displays lower (higher) preference in the early 1990s (2000s) for defense spending compared to the year 2008.     

Country Survey XIII: Japan's security posture and defense industry prospects

Defense budgets in Japan have been complicated compromises from numerous inputs ‐ including threat perceptions, domestic industrial/technological base development, support for the bilateral security treaty with the United States and internal bureaucratic politics ‐ but with the fall of the former Soviet Union, the clearest justification for higher spending disappeared. Double‐digit defense spending increases that were common in the 1980s have been replaced by annual increases lower than present inflation rates, resulting in negative real growth in the country's defense budget. Domestic economic problems and consistent government pressures for smaller budgets have further slowed annual growth in total spending and have contributed to lower procurement budgets. As a result, the domestic Japanese defense industry is facing far more constrained conditions from the growth years of a decade before.

Government policymakers are examining Japan's regional security environment as well as its alliance with the United States to determine the appropriate course for the country to take in the coming years. The formal security treaty with the United States is likely to remain a major element of government positions, but other aspects of the country's overall security posture are open to debate. Perceptions of a reduced threat environment are fueling additional pressures for defense budget cuts.

The domestic defense industry seeks means to assure its survival in domestic defense markets in this constrained environment. Expansion into overseas markets to offset declining domestic markets is an option that currently is constrained by policy restrictions on arms exports. Industry is advocating re‐examination of those policies and unlike earlier years, government appears willing to respond positively but cautiously to this lobbying.     

Resourcing for defense: Solving the roles and missions puzzle

One of the most important issues facing the post‐Cold War U.S. defense establishment concerns the future allocation of combat tasks and responsibilities among different branches of the armed forces. The challenge is to reduce unnecessary redundancy across roles and missions when resources are highly constrained, without compromising military effectiveness. Defining the policy problem as one of resource allocation rather than operational effectiveness, we develop a methodology for allocating roles and missions. Our methodology focuses at the highest level of force aggregation and uses a mathematical programming model to produce cross‐service cross‐mission trade‐offs that will yield the best total force combat and non‐combat potential within resource consumption constraints.     

Making defense planning meaningful: the evolution of strategic guidance in the Hungarian Ministry of Defense

Hungary, a former communist state, adapted a Western-style defense planning system during the 1990s and 2000s. Although on the surface the elements of this planning system were similar to the planning programming budgeting system (PPBS) developed by the US Department of Defense, strategic guidance for defense planning has not been properly developed until recently. Thus, albeit PPBS-based defense plans were developed in the Hungarian Ministry of Defense (Hungarian MoD) regularly, they lacked both an expression of clear priorities and strategic focus. This article delineates the evolution of strategic guidance in the Hungarian MoD concentrating on current developments, and introduces the newly elaborated analytical concepts and tools, which helped to create needed strategic guidance in Hungary.     

An analysis of the Washington naval agreements and the economic provisions of arms control theory

During the Cold War, two contending hypotheses dominated theories concerning the economic impact of anus control. The first suggested that when certain prerequisites were fulfilled, arms control agreements served to promote lasting reduction in military spending. The second asserted that instead of promoting savings, arms control encouraged diversion of resources to more advanced and expensive weapons, thus driving defense spending higher. Through the examination of the impact of the Washington Naval Agreements on naval expenditure during the 1920s, this paper provides empirical evidence to support the latter of these competing hypotheses. The United States, Great Britain, and Japan all realized economic savings after signing the Washington Naval Agreements. However, these savings soon eroded as the powers developed more advanced weapons‐systems.     

防空兵群(团)火力配系优化

首先阐明了防空兵群(团)火力配系优化的基本概念,然后,运用作战模拟的有关理论,分别建立了火力单位距目标的最佳配置距离(D)、防空兵群(团)对来袭目标的抗击率(Pk)和被保护目标的安全率(Pa)的优化模型。在此基础上,提出了防空兵群(团)火力配系优化的一般方法。最后通过一个实例,说明了防空兵群(团)火力配系的具体步骤。     

Israeli foreign policy and the arms race in the Middle East 1950–1960

Previous accounts of the arms race in the Middle East during the 1950s have focused on the imbalance that resulted from the ‘Czech deal’ of September 1955. While that transfer of weaponry by the Soviet Union to Egypt constituted both a historical turning point and sharp acceleration of the arms race, it was only one of several changes in the regional strategic balance of that decade. This article makes extensive use of archival material in order to identify five phases of the arms race of the 1950s and analyze the manner in which Israeli policy‐makers dealt with the exigencies of procurement during each phase. Except for a brief period following the arms deals with France in 1956 that marked the beginning of the fifth phase examined below, the Israelis never abandoned the attempt to obtain arms from the United States. Israel's success in maintaining a high degree of independence in foreign policy throughout this period was the result of arms purchases from Britain and France that marked each phase of the arms race examined here. Yet, the Israelis considered arms from both of these Western powers to be temporary substitutes for the arms relationship with the USA that came about during the 1960s.     

Book reviews

Jurgen Brauer's comment presents what he calls a replication of an earlier study by Higgs and Kilduff (1993) and uses it to criticize the adequacy of the Higgs‐Kilduff model. In several respects, however, Brauer has not actually performed a replication: he uses different data, a different sample period, and arrives at different results. His criticisms rest on his own setup, not that of Higgs and Kilduff. Therefore they have no strict applicability to the latter. Moreover, Brauer's stepwise model has no bearing on the Higgs‐Kilduff model, as it violates that model's specification requirements.     

Defense Spending and Unemployment in France

France has received little attention in the literature of defense economics, despite some outstanding features of the country’s situation. This study attempts to partially fill this gap with new empirical evidence which evaluates the influence of military expenditure on the unemployment rate between 1975 and 2008. Our estimation is based on the ARDL approach to cointegration. The results reveal that both defense and non-defense spending exert a negative influence on unemployment but that defense spending has a higher negative impact.     

Defense Spending and Economic Growth: Some Empirical Evidence from the Arab Gulf Region

The present paper investigates the causal relationship between defense spending and economic growth in six Gulf countries for the period 1975-1998. I use Granger-causality test within a multivariate error-correction framework to explore the existence and direction of causality between these two variables. The empirical results indicate that neither growth nor defense can be considered exogenous and that the relationship between them cannot be generalized across countries. Two implications can be derived from these findings. One is the need for more studies, especially from developing countries, using time-series data. The other is that decisions on defense spending should be based on each country's socio-economic circumstances. Given the small sample size, however, caution is advised in considering the above results and their implications as final.