空中搜救行动锥体空间管控方法

着眼于空间管控对空中搜救行动的重要作用,为有效配置空中搜救力量,优化形成空中搜救优势,决定基于"空中搜救锥"概念,同时结合空中搜救行动不同阶段,依次建立搜索模式、作战模式、救援模式下"锥体空间"模型;选取搜救效能、搜救安全和搜救经济性作为评价搜救空间管控的重要因素,通过区分有无夺取制空权两种情况,分别探索搜救空间管控模型;最后,基于上述分析,总结归纳空中搜救行动"锥体空间"动态管控特性,及其具体管控方法.通过研究分析,试图为空中搜救行动空间管控问题提供基础模型与方法支撑,并由此推动空中搜救行动空间管控能力进一步提升.     

基于数据耕耘的探索性仿真实验框架研究

基于数据耕耘思想,设计了探索性仿真实验框架,并对框架中每个部分进行了简要探讨。基于数据耕耘的探索性仿真实验框架由乒乓式对抗推演预实验、单个仿真想定生成环、仿真想定空间运行环和仿真结果分析环四部分组成,通过将人的经验、智慧与计算机仿真手段相结合,在多次循环的过程中逐渐形成所需的军事决策建议或寻找感兴趣的战争规律。通过构建探索性仿真实验框架,能够将各种定量、定性分析方法整合起来,围绕实验目标实施探索性仿真实验。     

基于深度学习的战场态势评估综述与研究展望

适用于大数据复杂系统的人工智能研究水平,已成为制约战场态势评估技术发展的瓶颈问题.2006年提出的人工智能新研究领域——深度学习,具备多层感知的深度网络模型,体现出非线性表达、多层学习、自主提取等优势,为研究大数据战场态势评估问题提供了技术支持.美军将机器学习作为重点发展的基础研究和应用开发领域,自2007年以来启动多个项目;我军应用与研究领域中,深度学习也得到重视并取得一些有益探索.展望未来,可从空间、时间角度研究大数据战场态势特征,并基于此构建基于深度学习的战场态势评估模型.     

基于系统辨识技术的地球辐射带高能电子通量预报模型研究综述

对地球辐射带中的高能电子通量变化情况进行准确及时的预报是安全遂行空间任务的重要保障条件。从系统辨识的角度,对基于数据驱动的辐射带电子通量预报模型相关研究进行了归纳总结,对线性预测滤波器、卡尔曼滤波器、神经网络等模型的数学机理、约束条件、数据处理过程进行了介绍,分析比较了模型的特点和不足,总结出了模型"线性-非线性"的发展脉络,最后指出了数据驱动辐射带电子通量预报模型的发展趋势。     

基于GIS的重庆人口空间离散化模型研究

传统的人口统计数据一般是以行政区划为单元的二维表格数据,这种数据不能以直观的形式表达人口在自然地理空间和人文地理空间的分布与格局.目前多采用的按面积平均或单因子影响权重的人口离散化方法,仍然不能很好地模拟人口的实际空间分布.研究表明土地利用类型、地形坡度、河流、道路以及城镇居民点对人口分布有较大影响,通过较为客观的方式赋予各影响因子对人口分布的影响权重,提出了人口加权多因子离散化模型,并依据该模型对重庆地区的人口统计数据进行了离散.最终生成的栅格人口密度数据既与区县统计人口数据保持一致,又反映了各市县内部人口分布的空间变化.     

高超声速临近空间作战智能体攻击模型与仿真

通过对高超声速临近空间智能体攻击模型的概念描述和逻辑描述,抽象出攻击模型的数学模型,提出了一种基于作战智能体的行为模型框架和高超声速临近空间智能体攻击模型.基于Swarm复杂性仿真平台,仿真分析了高超声速临近空间智能体攻击的态势和效果,验证了建模方法的可行性,为研究高超声速临近空间飞行器提供了一种有效方法.     

美国地理空间情报数据获取能力及启示

地理空间情报使用影像、影像情报和地理空间信息,解释、审查和直观地表示地理特征和活动.美军通过地理空间情报提供的战场信息,可以更高效地进行指挥控制和实施作战行动,以支持国家安全、国家政策、作战部署等不同层次的战略和战术需求,实现战场上的信息优势.美军在战场上形成的地理空间情报优势,离不开多年来美国在地理空间情报领域探索实践中形成的先进发展理念与能力建设.对美国地理空间情报数据的获取能力进行分析,为我国地理空间情报数据建设提供参考.     

往返搜索发现概率仿真分析与应用

往返搜索是一种最常见的搜索样式,其搜索效能与搜索宽度、发现距离、搜索速度、突破速度等因素密切相关。在建立往返搜索行动模型的基础上,通过仿真实验得到耕耘数据,进而通过数据分析和处理得到往返搜索发现概率的经验公式。应用经验公式并结合声纳探测模型,对多搜索艇分段封锁搜索案例进行了优化研究。     

基于伪临界值的Cache一致性协议验证方法

针对Cache一致性协议状态空间爆炸问题,提出共享集合伪临界值(Pseudo-cutoff)的概念,并以采用释放一致性模型的CC-NUMA系统为例,分析了共享数据的分布情况,推导出在一定条件下共享集合伪临界值为4的结论,有效优化了目录Cache协议状态空间,并提出了解决小概率的宽共享事件的方法.实验数据表明,基于伪临界值的协议模型优化,能够有效缩小Cache协议状态空间,加快验证速度,扩大验证规模.     

空间飞行器主动段的轨道估计与误差分析

为了对无源探测卫星系统的定轨方式和精度进行定量分析,通过坐标转换、受力分析、拟合、最小二乘法、微分方程数值解法与误差分析等方法,建立了基于卫星无源探测的空间飞行器在主动段的交汇定位优化模型和运动方程模型。基于模拟数据和模型,给出了卫星和空间飞行器的轨道曲线以及卫星的系统误差。经过系统误差修正,空间飞行器的估计轨道误差仅为7.582 1 m。     

Sequential learning versus no learning in Bayesian regression models

We consider two regression models: linear and logistic. The dependent variable is observed periodically and in each period a Bayesian formulation is used to generate updated forecasts of the dependent variable as new data is observed. One would expect that including new data in the Bayesian updates results in improved forecasts over not including the new data. Our findings indicate that this is not always true. We show there exists a subset of the independent variable space that we call the “region of no learning.” If the independent variable values for a given period in the future are in this region, then the forecast does not change with any new data. Moreover, if the independent variable values are in a neighborhood of the region of no learning, then there may be little benefit to wait for the new data and update the forecast. We propose a statistical approach to characterize this neighborhood which we call the “region of little learning.” Our results provide insights into the trade‐offs that exist in situations when the decision maker has an incentive to make an early decision based on an early forecast versus waiting to make a later decision based on an updated forecast. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 532–548, 2014     

舰载无人机对岸可观测安全飞行空间分析模型

基于舰载无人机对岸上目标的观测能力出发研究出的"理想观参",考虑各种因素对舰载无人机在任务区域飞行安全的影响,建立了地理通视性分析模型、地理可飞性分析模型、飞行可控性分析模型、弹道安全性分析模型和观参上限分析模型;综合上述模型,给出了舰载无人机可观测安全飞行空间,满足可观测安全飞行空间的观测参数即为当前环境下的"实用观参";根据本文模型研制的舰载无人机对岸射击观测辅助决策软件,实现了舰载无人机对岸射击观测的科学决策。     

Subspace dynamic‐simplex linear interpolation search for mixed‐integer black‐box optimization problems

Design and management of complex systems with both integer and continuous decision variables can be guided using mixed‐integer optimization models and analysis. We propose a new mixed‐integer black‐box optimization (MIBO) method, subspace dynamic‐simplex linear interpolation search (SD‐SLIS), for decision making problems in which system performance can only be evaluated with a computer black‐box model. Through a sequence of gradient‐type local searches in subspaces of solution space, SD‐SLIS is particularly efficient for such MIBO problems with scaling issues. We discuss the convergence conditions and properties of SD‐SLIS algorithms for a class of MIBO problems. Under mild conditions, SD‐SLIS is proved to converge to a stationary solution asymptotically. We apply SD‐SLIS to six example problems including two MIBO problems associated with petroleum field development projects. The algorithm performance of SD‐SLIS is compared with that of a state‐of‐the‐art direct‐search method, NOMAD, and that of a full space simplex interpolation search, Full‐SLIS. The numerical results suggest that SD‐SLIS solves the example problems efficiently and outperforms the compared methods for most of the example cases. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 64: 305–322, 2017     

DEA models for two‐stage processes: Game approach and efficiency decomposition

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is a method for measuring the efficiency of peer decision making units (DMUs). This tool has been utilized by a number of authors to examine two‐stage processes, where all the outputs from the first stage are the only inputs to the second stage. The current article examines and extends these models using game theory concepts. The resulting models are linear, and imply an efficiency decomposition where the overall efficiency of the two‐stage process is a product of the efficiencies of the two individual stages. When there is only one intermediate measure connecting the two stages, both the noncooperative and centralized models yield the same results as applying the standard DEA model to the two stages separately. As a result, the efficiency decomposition is unique. While the noncooperative approach yields a unique efficiency decomposition under multiple intermediate measures, the centralized approach is likely to yield multiple decompositions. Models are developed to test whether the efficiency decomposition arising from the centralized approach is unique. The relations among the noncooperative, centralized, and standard DEA approaches are investigated. Two real world data sets and a randomly generated data set are used to demonstrate the models and verify our findings. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

Jointly constrained order quantities with all-units discounts

In this article we investigate situations where the buyer is offered discounted price schedules from alternative vendors. Given various discount schedules, the buyer must make the best buying decision under a variety of constraints, such as limited storage space and restricted inventory budgets. Solutions to this problem can be utilized by the buyer to improve profitability. EOQ models for multiple products with all-units discounts are readily solvable in the absence of constraints spanning the products. However, constrained discounted EOQ models lack convenient mathematical properties. Relaxing the product-spanning constraints produces a dual problem that is separable, but lack of convexity and smoothness opens the door for duality gaps. In this research we present a set of algorithms that collectively find the optimal order vector. Finally, we present numerical examples using actual data. to illustrate the application of the algorithms. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

武器系统方案评价与决策的DEA模型

利用数据包络分析方法建立了武器系统研制方案评价与决策的新模型,设计了其评价指标体系与决策分析步骤,并给出了模型的实际应用案例     

面向武器装备体系组合规划的集成决策优化框架

针对当前武器装备体系组合规划存在选择空间规模大、决策目标数量多等问题,提出一种集成决策优化框架,用于组合选择和规划武器装备的发展型号、时间和数量。首先对武器装备体系组合规划问题的NP-Hard和高维多目标性质进行定量化分析和公式化描述;然后采用目标规划方法将该问题构建为双目标优化模型;再基于NSGA-II多目标演化计算方法,开发面向本问题的优化算法,求得该模型的Pareto解集合;最后通过TOPSIS方法,从Pareto解集合中求取符合决策者偏好的满意解。通过某侦察预警监视体系发展规划示例,验证了当给定经验数据和决策者偏好信息后,该框架可获得符合要求的武器装备体系组合规划方案,能够支撑武器装备体系发展论证和规划。     

An interactive approach to multiple criteria optimization with multiple decision-makers

In this article we propose a formal man-machine interactive approach to multiple criteria optimization with multiple decision makers. The approach is based on some of our earlier research findings in multiple criteria decision making. A discrete decision space is assumed. The same framework may readily be used for multiple criteria mathematical programming problems. To test the approach two experiments were conducted using undergraduate Business School students as subjects in Finland and in the United States. The context was, respectively, a high-level Finnish labor-management problem and the management-union collective bargaining game developed at the Krannert Graduate School of Management, Purdue University. The results of the experiments indicate that our approach is a potentially useful decision aid for group decision-making and bargaining problems.     

陆军战斗决心方案评估方法研究

战斗决心方案评估是陆军指挥员及指挥机关组织战斗过程中的一项重要工作。研究评估方法为陆军部队行动选择战斗决心方案提供依据。对战斗决心方案的评估,根据决心方案的战术手段、作战目标选择、战斗部署等三项主要内容,建立评估指标体系和评估数学模型,得出综合评估结果。该量化分析的评估方法提高了决策的精确性。     

科研经费管理决策支持系统若干模型

本文应用多目标决策原理和计算机技术,在分析用户需求的基础上,建立了科研任务项目的预测评价和经费分配模型,并分析了有关模型的关系和解决性质。根据这些模型和决策的特点,简要叙述了该系统的主要功能。我们相信,该系统的应用,将给管理人员提供方便,且使管理进一步科学化,让有限的经费发挥更大的作用。