解命中算法探讨

本文阐述了一些火控系统解命中的算法,针对实际工程中所用算法存在的问题,做了一些研究工作,提出了一种用于解命中的新算法——新的改进弦截法(下称新弦法)。对于当前火控计算机中普遍采用的射表逼近迭代计算射击诸元的算法,在收敛速度与收敛区域上作了较详细的比较与验算,得到了一些有价值的结论。新弦法具有收敛速度快、收敛解可靠(是最小解)等优点。将此法应用于解命中问题是切实可行的。     

基于预测命中点的机动目标最优制导方法

针对导弹攻击机动目标的情况,提出了一种基于"当前"统计模型的预测命中点方法。首先对目标进行实时机动检测,并预测了拦截时刻目标的位置。基于预测命中点的结果,推导得到导弹攻击机动目标最优制导方法的解析解。该方法无需提前假设目标机动模式,适用性好。在多个假想的攻击场景下对制导方法进行了仿真,仿真结果验证了该方法是有效的。     

小子样条件下巡航导弹的命中精度评估方法

针对巡航导弹定型试验发数少、验前试验信息源多的特点,提出小子样条件下,通过可信性检验分别得到每个验前信息源的可信度,在导弹落点偏差分布为正态-逆伽马分布的假设下,获得评估的验前分布参数,选择基于可信度的加权方法对多源验前信息进行融合,采用Bayes估计方法得到命中精度。最后结合实例进行仿真,说明了该方法较传统的Bayes方法更稳健,很适合巡航导弹命中精度的评估。     

舰炮解命中迭代初值确定新方法

针对传统舰炮火控系统解命中迭代方法的不足,通过对舰炮解命中过程的分析,推导出了首次解命中和非首次解命中两种情况下精确预估弹丸飞行时间迭代初值的有效方法,进而建立了相应的舰炮火控系统解命中模型。分别对传统方法和新方法进行了比较仿真试验,试验证明,本方法较传统方法精度高,迭代次数少,计算周期短,可有效地提高舰炮武器系统的快速反应能力。所提出的方法对于提高舰炮武器作战效能具有理论和实际意义。     

解命中的快速迭代方法

在火炮指挥仪中,解命中迭代方法常用改进迭代法。它的缺点是对于不同的目标运动状态其收敛速度不一样,而且若在命中点目标距变率三倍于弹丸末速度时,改进迭代法将是发散的。本文对迭代方法问题进行局部优化,推导出一种新的迭代方法,称之为快速迭代法。它能够根据命中点小邻域内的目标距变率与弹丸末速度之比而自动调节,使得收敛速度在线性化意义下达到最快,而且收敛区域复盖了命中解的存在区域。本文还给出了工程化的快速迭代法。用64位字长的计算机对几种选代方法进行了模拟计算,实验数据证实了以上结论。     

步兵三角队形作战能力的评估

结合步兵战斗队形——三角队形的实际作战特点,考虑战斗中可能出现的具体情况,提出相关假设,并依据此假设分别建立了枪械的命中概率模型和命中有防护目标、无防护目标后的毁伤模型。具体地分析了敌我双方进行三次有效交火(存在死伤)后的队形变化情况,最终得出该步兵战斗队形的完成目标任务的概率,并以此概率值评估该三角队形的作战能力。     

具有射击门的压制火炮命中与毁歼概率分析

以具有射击门的压制火炮武器系统为研究对象,在正态射击误差的假设下,以正态误差方差的分布理论为工具,给出了随动误差在射击门内外方差的分布状态,在此基础上导出了射击门体制下随动误差的密度函数,在没有引入近似公式与经验数据的条件下,给出了此类武器系统弹药的命中概率与一次发连射下的毁歼概率表达式。为论证、设计、测试上述概率提供了理论工具。     

制导武器命中精度估计方法与检验方法一致性研究

针对制导武器命中精度估计方法和检验方法存在的联系以及原理性差异,对两种命中精度评定方法的一致性进行了研究。从双方风险角度研究了小子样条件对命中精度点估计和区间估计方法的影响,明确了提升命中精度评定准确性的手段;在分析命中精度指标与检验方法关系基础上,通过将双方风险与区间上界估计方法进行比较,明确了命中精度指标为备择假设的检验方法;从双方风险层面进一步分析了区间估计方法与检验方法的一致性。结果表明：对于区间估计方法和检验方法,通过合理调整置信水平参数和检出比参数,能够实现两种方法双方风险的一致性,但两种评定方法理论基础不同,进行精度评定会存在评定结论不一致的现象,该现象出现概率与制导武器自身精度有关。     

坦克火控系统机动目标的自适应滤波与自适应解命中问题

在非制导火控系统中,为实现目标信息的自适应滤波与自适应解命中问题,机动目标模型应能实时识别,并要适应工作周期的各种变化。本文提出了“参数辨识模型”,首次完全满足了上述要求。     

一种火炮快速解命中问题的新方法

在火炮解命中过程中,对于射表数据的处理方法主要有逼近法和插值法.基于对射表数据进行插值处理的基础上,用一种解非线性方程的迭代方法对解命中问题进行研究,这种方法可避免导数计算,收敛较快.经仿真计算,并与其他方法进行了比较,验证了该方法在火炮解命中问题中的可行性和优越性.     

Damage accumulation and probability of kill for gun and target engagements

Determination of the gunfire probability of kill against a target requires two parameters to be taken into consideration: the likelihood of hitting the target (susceptibility) and the conditional probability of kill given a hit (vulnerability). Two commonly used methods for calculating the latter probability are (1) treating each hit upon the target independently, and (2) setting an exact number of hits to obtain a target kill. Each of these methods contains an implicit assumption about the probability distribution of the number of hits‐to‐kill. Method (1) assumes that the most likely kill scenario occurs with exactly one hit, whereas (2) implies that achieving a precise number of hits always results in a kill. These methods can produce significant differences in the predicted gun effectiveness, even if the mean number of hits‐to‐kill for each distribution is the same. We therefore introduce a new modeling approach with a more general distribution for the number of hits‐to‐kill. The approach is configurable to various classes of damage mechanism and is able to match both methods (1) and (2) with a suitable choice of parameter. We use this new approach to explore the influence of various damage accumulation models on the predicted effectiveness of weapon‐target engagements.     

反舰导弹仿真中的目标命中判断问题

阐述了模型校核的意义和作用。对属于模型校核范畴的仿真中的系统状态不连贯问题的基本概念通过乒乓球的下落和反舰导弹攻击目标舰艇的例子进行了说明。介绍了已有的解决系统状态不连贯问题的三种方法,并进行了优、缺点分析。给出了反舰导弹仿真中的目标命中判断模型。指出,反舰导弹仿真中的目标命中判断问题是一个系统状态不连贯问题。为解决该问题,提出并应用了一种新方法预测法。利用预测法,最多进行两步最小步长仿真,就能够以要求的精确度检测到任何一个系统状态不连贯。相对于以前的三种方法,在提高仿真效率的同时,预测法还能够避免对系统状态不连贯问题的漏检。     

The enumeration of all efficient solutions for a linear multiple-objective transportation problem

An algorithm is presented by which the set of all efficient solutions for a linear multiple-objective transportation problem can be enumerated. First the algorithm determines an initial efficient basic solution. In a second step all efficient basic solutions are enumerated. Finally, the set of all efficient solutions is constructed as a union of a minimal number of convex sets of efficient solutions. The algorithm is illustrated by a numerical example.     

对目标打击概率的数学模型及分析

通过分析识别跟踪攻击目标的过程,建立了攻击目标打击概率的数学模型和基本算法,通过计算机采用蒙特卡罗法模拟计算了不同条件下对目标的打击概率,以此研究影响打击概率的因素.计算结果表明,武器系统的作战半径和威力半径两个因素对打击概率影响较大,误差因素在一定范围内影响较小,各参数之间存在优化匹配的空间.     

The stochastic duel with time-dependent hit probabilities

The fundamental stochastic duel considers two opponents who fire at each other at either random continuous or fixed-time intervals with a constant hit probability on each round fired. Each starts with an unloaded weapon, unlimited ammunition, and unlimited time. The first to hit wins. In this article we extend the theory to the case where hit probabilities are functions of the time since the duel began. First, the marksman firing at a passive target is considered and the characteristic function of the time to a hit is developed. Then, the probability of a given side winning the duel is derived. General solutions for a wide class of hit probability functions are derived. Specific examples of both the marksman and the duel problem are given.     

A mean cost approximation for transportation problems with stochastic demand

Among the many tools of the operations researcher is the transportation algorithm which has been used to solve a variety of problems ranging from shipping plans to plant location. An important variation of the basic transportation problem is the transportation problem with stochastic demand or stochastic supply. This paper presents a simple approximation technique which may be used as a starting solution for algorithms that determine exact solutions. The paper indicates that the approximation technique offered here is superior to a starting solution obtained by substituting expected demand for the random variables.     

The bottleneck transportation problem

The bottleneck transportation problem can be stated as follows: A set of supplies and a set of demands are specified such that the total supply is equal to the total demand. There is a transportation time associated between each supply point and each demand point. It is required to find a feasible distribution (of the supplies) which minimizes the maximum transportaton time associated between a supply point and a demand point such that the distribution between the two points is positive. In addition, one may wish to find from among all optimal solutions to the bottleneck transportation problem, a solution which minimizes the total distribution that requires the maximum time Two algorithms are given for solving the above problems. One of them is a primal approach in the sense that improving fcasible solutions are obtained at each iteration. The other is a “threshold” algorithm which is found to be far superior computationally.     

高炮射击提前点的解法研究

针对高炮射击解提前点方法进行的研究,在图解法的基础上,运用解方程的思想,提出了精度更高的“系数调整法”、“图解逼近法”和“一元四次方程法”。较好地解决对匀速运动目标命中问题的求解,“图解逼近法”具有单方向收敛的优点。“一元四次方程法”可直接用消元法求解,不需循环。解法与迭代法比较,具有计算精度高、速度快,计算步骤、时间固定,在火控系统计算和修正等方面有重要的实用价值。     

改进的TOPSIS法在雷达干扰资源分配中的应用

对雷达进行侦查是干扰雷达的前提,由于侦查无法得到精确的实际雷达工作参数,而只能得到一个工作参数区间,因此属性值为确定值的多属性决策方法是不适用的.从多个属性出发,提出改进的基于逼近理想解排序的TOPSIS法,针对属性权重信息不完全且属性值为区间数的特征,将多属性决策问题运用到雷达干扰资源分配中来,对雷达干扰资源进行优选配置,通过多个无线传感器干扰节点协同干扰,使其达到最佳的干扰效果.     

Heuristic modeling of supply availabilities in large networks

The objective of this article is to describe heuristic solutions to the problem of modeling inventories at each node of a large network in the context of a computer simulation model of that network. The heuristic solutions are compared with the mathematical solution which is too unwieldy for use in a simulation model. The Weibull cumulative distribution is used as an approximation for the heuristic models. We question whether the good performance of the Weibull is coincidence or perhaps mathematically justifiable.