中段反导火力单元优化部署研究

针对来袭的弹道导弹进行拦截的问题,分析了中段拦截的交战过程,建立简化的拦截弹的弹道模型。将拦截剩余时间,迎击角和拦截时来袭导弹的速度作为优化指标,依据拦截弹的拦截高度和拦截斜距,选定拦截弹可能部署的位置区域,并采用网格划分方式对该区域进行均匀离散化处理。对不同位置下的拦截弹的射击有利度进行分析,最后得出对于已知来袭目标弹道轨迹时的拦截弹的最优部署位置。为构建中段反导防御体系和多层反导防御体系提供了一种量化的计算方法,对反导作战具有一定的理论指导意义。     

动能拦截弹弹目碰撞概率仿真建模技术

针对目前研究反导拦截的主要方式——直接碰撞杀伤技术,提出了一种动能拦截弹弹目碰撞计算模型用以进行动能拦截弹与目标碰撞的概率计算,拦截弹碰撞目标的要害部位分析以及不同交会姿态对碰撞概率的影响分析.此模型是直接动能杀伤目标毁伤评估建模的基础,也可用于对拦截弹最佳碰撞方式的研究等方面.     

点目标防御武器配系部署规划

针对点目标的战略防御问题,根据不同的作战想定设定单方向威胁的来袭目标和扇形威胁的来袭弹道导弹2种作战场景,对来袭的弹道导弹实施中段拦截。依据选定的拦截弹的特性以及来袭弹道导弹的特性,建立了拦截弹的空间杀伤区,以及对地面资产的防护区和防护角模型,并建立了2种场景防御体系下的武器阵地部署模型,并以综合拦截效能,对地面资产的防护角,以及部署费用等指标对模型进行了优化分析。通过具体的算例验证了部署模型方法的有效性。研究成果对中段反导作战应用具有一定的参考价值。     

声纳主动工况下拦截弹作战模型与能力研究

根据鱼雷报警声纳主动工况能够探测鱼雷距离和方位的特点,提出了悬浮式拦截弹的布放时机、拦截提前量和布放间隔的确定和优化问题。在分析悬浮式拦截弹作战过程的基础上建立了目标运动参数的滤波解算模型、布阵参数解算模型以及作战能力仿真模型。运用蒙特卡洛法仿真计算了采取不同布阵参数对不同舷角来袭鱼雷的拦截概率。通过结果分析解决了布阵参数的优化问题,为提高鱼雷报警声纳主动工况下悬浮式拦截弹的作战能力提供了理论参考和建议。     

一种新型“飞板”主动防护拦截效能分析

为了提高硬杀伤主动防护系统对空拦截概率,降低坦克装甲车辆被来袭目标袭击的伤害,现提出了一种采用面-点拦截模式的新型"飞板"主动防护系统。根据面-点拦截方式特点,建立了飞板与来袭目标的交汇模型。通过蒙特卡罗法分析了影响拦截概率的因素,结果表明拦截飞板与来袭目标交汇距离、拦截飞板与来袭目标速度以及拦截飞板边长对拦截概率影响较大,为此新型主动防护系统进一步优化设计提供依据。     

高超声速滑翔目标拦截弹方案设计与弹道规划北大核心

针对高超声速滑翔目标的拦截问题,分析了拦截窗口、拦截方式以及毁伤方式等拦截问题,并提出了拦截弹总体方案及弹道规划需求;开展了拦截弹总体方案设计,设计了一种两级助推的拦截弹方案,确定了推进系统、操纵系统的总体基本参数,并完成了拦截弹气动外形设计与质心定位;构建了拦截弹弹道规划的分析方法和工具,根据设计约束开展了针对HTV-2高超声速滑翔目标的拦截弹道规划研究,采用粒子群算法对弹道进行了求解。结果表明:采用空基拦截的方式可达到预期的最大拦截速度,满足拦截弹拦截滑翔武器的速度约束指标;此外开展了该拦截弹拦截概率评估,确定了针对高超声速滑翔目标可采用分层防御的方式从多个拦截站依次拦截。     

高炮系统拦截高速目标效能评估

高炮防御系统在整个防空体系中占有重要地位.分析了高炮防御系统拦截高速目标的优势,提出了弹幕墙的概念,建立了相应的模型并对弹幕墙拦截来袭高速目标的效能进行了分析.通过算例验证了模型的正确性,提出了提高拦截成功率的有效途径.其结果为有效提高高炮系统拦截成功率提供了依据.     

舰炮近炸引信预制破片弹在反导中的弹丸威力分析

舰炮使用近炸引信预制破片弹进行反导,是舰炮反导的一种重要方式,近炸引信预制破片弹弹丸威力是影响舰炮使用该弹种反导效能的一个重要因素,通过分析舰炮使用近炸引信预制破片弹的反导过程和毁伤机理,用弹丸毁伤破片数描述弹丸威力,对弹丸威力及毁伤破片进行了定义,建立了一套计算弹丸毁伤破片数的方法,得出了反导过程中弹丸威力随拦截距离的增加而变化,是一动态威力的重要结论。     

子母深弹反鱼雷攻击效能及仿真

火箭深弹是水面舰艇拦截鱼雷的常用武器,为提高火箭深弹拦截鱼雷的概率,提出了子母深弹的概念,将地面火炮中常用的子母弹技术应用于深弹反鱼雷攻击中,通过分析子母弹的散布特性,来比较子母深弹和火箭深弹毁伤鱼雷的效能,并通过Monte-Carlo法仿真了这一过程,分析了影响子母深弹的毁伤概率的因素。     

"标准-3"拦截弹对机动弹头的拦截有效性分析

以"标准-3"拦截弹的多次拦截试验情况为参考,根据其能力及试验中的表现,分析其总体设计方案和各项性能参数,建立数学仿真模型.在研究海基导弹防御指挥控制流程、拦截弹动力学模型和仿真算法的基础上,对拦截具有机动突防能力的弹道导弹目标进行仿真分析.获得拦截弹对机动突防目标拦截有效性的仿真结果.分析仿真结果可知,拦截弹对机动弹头的拦截能力有限.     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

Reviews

Douglas S. Derrer, We Are All the Target: A Handbook of Terrorism Avoidance and Hostage Survival. Annapolis, MD: US Naval Institute Press, 1992. Pp. x+135, notes, index. $14.95. ISBN 01–55750–150–5

Ian Knight, Zulu: Isandlwana and Rorke's Drift, 22–23 January 1879. London: Windrow & Greene, 1992. Pp.136, 150 illus., incl 8 colour plates, maps, biblio. £35. ISBN 1–872004–23–7

Ian Knight, By the Orders of the Great White Queen: Campaigning in Zululand through the Eyes of the British Soldiers, 1879. London: Greenhill Books and Novato: Presidio Press, 1992. Pp. 272, 17 illus., 1 map. £18.95. ISBN 1–85367–122–3

Manfried Rauchensteiner and Erwin A. Schmidl (eds.), Formen des Krieges: vom Mittelalter zum ‘Low‐intensity’ Conflict’. Graz : Verlag Styria, 1991. Pp.208. DM35. ISBN 3–22–12139–7

Harold J. Kearsley, Maritime Power and the Twenty‐First Century. Dartmouth: Dartmouth Publishing Company, Limited, 1992. Pp.xv + 203, 13 diagrams, index. £32.50. ISBN 1–85521–288–9     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Cyber sheiks and grassroots jihadis: the war in Syria and the devolution of the Bosnian Salafi communities

ABSTRACT

What was the scope of the Bosnian jihadi participation in the war in Syria? Did the Bosnian volunteers tend to join one particular faction? Why did the Bosnian youngsters decide to join the holy war in the Levant? Was this an organized and hierarchical process or was this a grassroots movement? Last, were all the Salafis in Bosnia supportive of this dynamic or did this process cause internal frictions? These are some of the questions that this research will try to answer.