网络化条件下系统评估方法研究

文中分析了网络化综合电子信息系统的评估方法,探索性提出了网络化条件下系统的能力特点、评价要素、评估指标、方法及模型。具体分析了评估指标的内涵及定义,提出了多指标效用分析方法、兵力效能比评估方法两类评估方法,建立了评估方法的模型,提出模型的实现方式和解析方法。     

稳健协同优化方法的改进和应用

结合协同优化方法和稳健性设计方法,提出了一种稳健协同优化方法。首先分析了现有协同优化方法在进行稳健多学科设计优化时的不足,给出了改进思路;在协同优化模型的基础上加入稳健性因素,建立了稳健协同优化模型;基于动态松弛思想给出一种新的松弛因子的计算方法,提高了该方法的收敛速度;最后以某型无人机机翼外形设计为例,验证了该方法的有效性。     

灰色定权聚类分析在作战方案决策中的应用

作战方案决策是作战过程中最重要的一个环节,提出了现代条件下作战方案定量决策的重要性,分析比较了目前各种定量决策方法的优缺点,介绍了灰色系统理论中灰色定权聚类分析方法的优点及其运用方法,阐明了运用灰色聚类分析方法决策作战方案的几个重要环节和需要注意的问题,最后通过一个应用实例说明了方法的具体应用,并证明了方法的可行性.     

舰炮武器系统对岸射击新方法及其精度分析

在分析了传统舰炮武器系统对岸射击方法存在的问题和局限性基础上,提出了基于GPS下大地主题坐标系下Boring定位数学模型,并做了精度分析,与现有的方法相比,具有较高的定位精度。之后提出了通过解弹道方程组求解射击诸元的思想方法,与其他文献的方法相比,在迭代方法上作了改进,提高了精度,采用DSP技术,提高了解算速度,确保解的实时性。最后作了模拟仿真及精度分析,结果表明,方法可行,为舰炮对岸射击问题提供了新的思路。     

作战筹划方法研究

从逆向和正向筹划的角度分析了国内外主要作战筹划方法,研究了各种作战筹划方法的发展、原理及特点,探索了信息化作战筹划方法的发展趋势,提出并展望了一体化联合筹划方法。     

面向对象技术在仿真测试系统中的应用

面向对象技术在软件系统开发中得到了广泛的应用。本文基于作者的分析与理解,阐述了面向对象设计方法的特点及其为软件设计方法所带来的变化。通过面向对象设计方法的应用,实例化了面向对象设计方法的特点,进一步展示了面向对象设计方法可能为软件方法带来的进步。     

飞船返回再入制导方法研究

本文分析研究了飞船离轨返回制动段的制导方法,提出了一种消除制动段误差对再入点状态参数影响的制动发动机综合关机方法,并对再入段的制导方法进行了分析讨论,最后进行了数值仿真分析,论证了方法的可行性。     

模糊综合法和灰色聚类法的应用比较

针对装备性能评估方法选择问题,研究了模糊综合评价和灰色聚类分析两种方法的评价应用.给出了两种方法的步骤和关键模型,以对某导弹武器系统作战能力评价为例,构建其作战能力指标体系,使用模糊综合评价和灰色聚类分析两种方法进行了作战效能评估,对两种评估方法评估结果及方法的适用性进行了分析.结果表明:相对于灰色聚类分析方法,模糊综...     

基于群决策和QFD的型号装备作战需求论证方法

通过研究定性问题的定量化处理方法和2类关键模型,提出了基于群决策和QFD的型号装备作战需求论证方法,阐述了方法的基本流程,构建了方法应用的数学模型,在一定程度上解决了需求论证中＂定量方法不足,需求论证不清＂的难题,为型号装备立项综合论证提供了方法支撑。     

多模型估计方法

多模型方法是一种混合估计方法 ,相对于传统的估计方法而言 (例如 Kalman滤波 ) ,它特别适合于具有未知变参数或变结构系统的研究 ,因而在许多领域得到了成功应用。回顾了多模型方法的发展过程 ,对现有各种多模型估计方法进行了总结 ,并提出了研究方向     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

Reviews

Douglas S. Derrer, We Are All the Target: A Handbook of Terrorism Avoidance and Hostage Survival. Annapolis, MD: US Naval Institute Press, 1992. Pp. x+135, notes, index. $14.95. ISBN 01–55750–150–5

Ian Knight, Zulu: Isandlwana and Rorke's Drift, 22–23 January 1879. London: Windrow & Greene, 1992. Pp.136, 150 illus., incl 8 colour plates, maps, biblio. £35. ISBN 1–872004–23–7

Ian Knight, By the Orders of the Great White Queen: Campaigning in Zululand through the Eyes of the British Soldiers, 1879. London: Greenhill Books and Novato: Presidio Press, 1992. Pp. 272, 17 illus., 1 map. £18.95. ISBN 1–85367–122–3

Manfried Rauchensteiner and Erwin A. Schmidl (eds.), Formen des Krieges: vom Mittelalter zum ‘Low‐intensity’ Conflict’. Graz : Verlag Styria, 1991. Pp.208. DM35. ISBN 3–22–12139–7

Harold J. Kearsley, Maritime Power and the Twenty‐First Century. Dartmouth: Dartmouth Publishing Company, Limited, 1992. Pp.xv + 203, 13 diagrams, index. £32.50. ISBN 1–85521–288–9     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Cyber sheiks and grassroots jihadis: the war in Syria and the devolution of the Bosnian Salafi communities

ABSTRACT

What was the scope of the Bosnian jihadi participation in the war in Syria? Did the Bosnian volunteers tend to join one particular faction? Why did the Bosnian youngsters decide to join the holy war in the Levant? Was this an organized and hierarchical process or was this a grassroots movement? Last, were all the Salafis in Bosnia supportive of this dynamic or did this process cause internal frictions? These are some of the questions that this research will try to answer.