On the brink: The resurgence of militant Islam in Central Asia

Since Operation Enduring Freedom, Central Asian militants, such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, have fled to Pakistan from their previous strongholds in Afghanistan. However, many militants have begun returning to Central Asia. Thus questions are raised as to what extent militancy has the potential to thrive with the pending North Atlantic Treaty Organization withdrawal from Afghanistan set for 2014? Is militancy a legitimate security threat to Central Asia? What strategies might militants implement? Thus, this article examines the current state of militancy, analyzes militant trends, introduces Afghanistan and Pakistan into the Central Asian equation, and determines the militants' capability and overall strategy. The article concludes that militant Islam, regardless of its current numbers, remains a viable threat to regional security, Afghanistan will be an essential factor for the future of Central Asian militancy, and the form this re-emergence will take becomes apparent.     

大中亚区域禁毒警务合作初探——以“金新月”毒品问题国际化为视角

面对“金新月”毒品问题日益国际化,在中亚各国复杂多变的政治、经济、民族、宗教背景下,迫切需要各方共同努力,创设、发展出一种更加灵活、高效、有针对性的禁毒合作机制,以应对该地区越来越严峻的毒品扩散问题及其引发的相关社会秩序危害。阐述了“金新月”毒情发展及其对周边国家的影响,分析了大中亚区域禁毒警务合作的必要性,探讨了大中亚禁毒警务合作模式的选择,以创设出一种立体的、全方位的、有较强执行力的区域禁毒合作模式。     

Proportional use of force in asymmetric military operation

This paper studies a strategic conflict between a state and a non-state military organization. The non-state military organization decides whether to attack or not to attack the state, while the state decides on its counter-measure. If the state uses a high level of violence against the non-state organization, it may be accused by the international community of ‘non-proportional’ use of force, and both sides of the conflict take this possibility into account. The model predicts that it may be rational for the non-state organization to attack the state, even if as a reaction the state will militarily destroy this organization, due to a positive probability the state will be punished by the international community for non-proportional use of violence.     

试论我国的反恐怖主义立法构想——俄罗斯及中亚诸国反恐怖主义法的启示

当前,我国的反恐怖主义立法工作尚处于起步阶段,相关法律还未健全,同时也未形成一套完整的反恐怖主义法。因此,吸收和借鉴国外特别是俄罗斯和中亚诸国反恐法律的思想精髓,在明确概念、颁布专门的法典、设立专门的反恐机构等方面提出构想,进而推进我国的反恐立法工作,更有利于保障我国的社会稳定和经济的快速发展。     

Enhancing Political Cohesion in NATO during the 1950s or: How it Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the (Tactical) Bomb

This article argues that the perceived need by NATO to nurture political cohesion within the Alliance during the 1950s resulted in the adoption of strategic concepts that were out-of-step with the military environment in which it was operating. It maintains that the Alliance acquiesced to American leadership on nuclear issues which led to the development of tactical nuclear capabilities at the expense of conventional war-fighting capabilities for the defence of the European Central Front. This resulted in a strategic concept that enhanced political cohesion but was militarily unviable.     

The Central Asian Militants: Cannon Fodder of Global Jihadism or Revolutionary Vanguard?

Central Asians have long been present within the ranks of organisations linked to the global jihad movement, but has there been an acceleration in their recruitment in recent years? There is growing evidence of substantial numbers of Central Asians (mostly Uzbeks and Tajiks) present in Syria in the ranks of the Islamic State and of a number of organisations linked to Al-Qaida. There is also growing evidence of recruitment inside Kyrgizstan and Tajikistan at least (as opposed as among Central Asian emigrants). The authors argue that distrust towards information provided by the Central Asian regimes should not blind analysts towards an emerging trend, which has substantial destabilising potential. The factors driving this recruitment also seem to be much more complex than a rejection of the authoritarianism of the ruling elites.     

光学陀螺旋转惯导系统原理探讨

利用旋转自动补偿光学陀螺的漂移是实现高精度惯性导航的有效途径之一,补偿的原理可以从惯性导航的误差方程中得到阐明。光学陀螺的特点决定了采用元件级的旋转方式会带来额外的误差和问题,而只能采用系统级的旋转,即整个惯性测量组合旋转补偿的方式。对一种8次180°翻转的光学陀螺惯性测量组合旋转方案进行了图形化的说明和分析,并仿真比较了旋转补偿前后的导航误差,结果表明这种系统级的补偿方案能够抵消所有惯性元件的静态漂移,从而大大提高了导航输出的位置和姿态精度。     

非合作目标视觉/惯导相对导航及敏感器自标定方法

利用视觉/惯导对空间非合作目标进行相对导航时,两敏感器的外参数对导航精度有较大影响。考虑到敏感器间的外参数标定复杂且耗时,提出一种利用视觉/惯导在估计相对状态过程中对其外参数进行标定的方法。该方法将视觉/惯导的外参数作为状态变量,与相对轨道运动学方程、相对姿态方程及惯导模型共同组成系统状态方程。利用该状态方程和单目视觉的观测量设计扩展卡尔曼滤波器对相对位姿、惯导偏差及视觉/惯导外参数进行估计,并通过数学仿真对该方法的有效性进行验证。仿真结果表明,该方法能够在视觉/惯导初始外参有偏差的情况下,有效估计相对位姿及惯导漂移,并对视觉/惯导外参数进行标定。     

惯组动态测试台误差分析及附加运动补偿算法

为了完成惯组的高精度、大动态测试任务,基于Gough-Stewart平台设计了电动六自由度惯组动态测试台。建立了系统的误差模型并分析了电动缸长度误差对系统精度的影响,分析了电动缸在惯组动态测试台运动过程中产生的被动螺旋附加运动,并对该运动补偿算法进行了研究。对被动螺旋附加运动产生的误差进行量化分析,结果表明,被动螺旋附加运动对惯组动态测试台的位姿精度存在非常显著的影响。为了消除该影响,编制了补偿算法,并将其应用于惯组动态测试台的实时控制系统中。实验结果表明,经过算法补偿后,惯组动态测试台的位姿精度达到了设计指标要求。     

Trilateral defence cooperation in the North: an assessment of interoperability between Norway,Sweden and Finland

Norway, Sweden and Finland have proclaimed a willingness to cooperate militarily in a future crisis or conflict despite their diverging alliance affiliation. This article assesses their ability to do so through various elements affecting their interoperability, with Arctic Challenge, a multinational military exercise, as an empirical basis. The analysis finds that the NATO/non-NATO-divide has a negative impact on the trilateral defence cooperation, especially on exchange of information and aspects related to command and control. At the same time, Finland and Sweden have become largely NATO-standardized through their active partnership with the Alliance. This has affected interoperability aspects, such as communication, culture, and the compatibility of technical solutions, in a positive manner. Through agreements with the Alliance, as well as domestic legal changes, the two NATO-partners have facilitated receiving military assistance from Norway and other NATO-members during a crisis. Other agreements between the Nordic countries, however, have been limited to peacetime.     

高精度惯测组合标定误差分析

惯性测量组合(IMU)标定误差分析对于惯性导航系统性能评估、误差分配和器件设备选型具有重要意义,但目前关于高精度IMU标定误差的定量讨论很少。借助四元数旋转矢量理论建立了转台轴正交度误差和转角控制误差模型,结合IMU测量误差的表示,定量分析了一种典型多位置标定编排方式下的标定误差。仿真结果和捷联惯性导航系统的试验结果证实了标定误差分析的正确性。     

中亚来华留学生汉语学习动机差异性分析

本文通过对新疆师范大学的中亚来华留学生学习动机进行调查,用差异性检验方法,从性别、学历方面进行数据统计分析,从而发现问题,得出结论,为留学生汉语学习动机问题的研究提供参考。     

一种单轴旋转的车载IMU/DTU组合导航方法

长时间机动工况时,某些复杂路况和车况环境下,捷联惯导组合导航系统方位角误差将增大.基于已有组合导航算法框架,提出了一种基于单轴旋转调制的组合导航方法.采用21维IMU/DTU(里程计)误差状态构造状态方程,以捷联惯导解算的位移增量与里程计解算的位移增量之差作为观测量,Kalman滤波器融合惯导与里程计信息,利用旋转调制...     

Fighting on Their Own Terms: The Tactics of the Irish Republican Army 1919-1921

Abstract

The 1919-1921 Anglo-Irish War represents one of the earliest instances of a successful insurgent movement in the twentieth century. By combining a fluid organizational structure with effective hit-and-run tactics and accurate intelligence, the Irish Republican Army was able to defeat militarily the security forces of Great Britain. Combined with a successful propaganda campaign, these tactics allowed the IRA to drive the British to the negotiating table, where its representatives secured greater autonomy than Ireland had known in centuries. The outcome of the Anglo-Irish War demonstrates the success which a well-organized guerrilla campaign can achieve, and the tactics used by the IRA must therefore be understood by any serious student of small warfare.     

Militarisation of cooperation against mass migration – the Central European Defence Cooperation (CEDC)

As a result of the migration crisis of 2015–2016, the management of mass migration and border control became militarised in Central Europe, and this process has also reshaped the dynamics of multinational defence cooperation in the region. Accordingly, while the so-called Central European Defence Cooperation (CEDC) was created by Austria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia and Slovenia in 2010 to support NATO and EU capability development projects via defence cooperation, after the migration crisis it became the major Central European forum for military cooperation against irregular mass migration. Although many defence officials in the region are not necessarily enthusiastic about this development, the Central European political environment and also practical defence considerations pushed the defence ministries of CEDC countries towards deeper cooperation on border control, as well as better coordination with ministries of interior affairs on the national and the regional levels.     

The demand for defense in East Asia: Modeling security alternatives∗

An interactive economic model of military spending is proposed. It is quantified on the basis of cross section data for East Asia. Projections of military spending to the end of the decade suggest that the growth of military spending in the region will decline slightly in the current decade. East Asian military spending can, however, be greatly influenced by the path of Chinese and US military efforts. An expansion of military spending by China could cause neighboring countries to greatly increase their military expenditures.     

The Harmful and Residual Effects on Civilians by Bombing Dual-purpose Facilities

This article addresses what we owe to the civilians of a state with which we are militarily engaged. The old notion of noncombatant immunity needs to be rethought within the context of both human rights and into the postwar phase. No doubt, civilians will be killed in war. However, much more can be done during and after the fighting to protect civilians’ basic human rights from the ills of war. I argue for making belligerents accountable ex post by requiring them to repair destroyed dual-purpose facilities that are essential for securing basic human rights of the civilian populace. I argue also that a belligerent’s targeting decisions should be reviewed ex post by an impartial commission.     

MILITARY SPENDING AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SOUTH ASIA: COMMENT AND RECONSIDERATION

In a recent paper in this journal, Wijewerra and Webb study the connection between military spending and gross domestic product (GDP) in a group of five South Asian countries, finding a small but statistically significant positive relationship between military spending and GDP. This paper reviews their approach and proposes an alternative which tries to deal with the problems of omitted variables and variable construction. It finds, in contrast, that a higher share of military spending in GDP is associated with lower growth of GDP per capita.     

How might Democratisation Affect Military Professionalism in Africa? Reviewing the Literature

The search continues for methods to improve security for development in Sub-Saharan Africa. One of the important actors in this security arena is Sub-Saharan African governments’ armies. Much of their capability to meet security challenge depends on how militarily professional they are. The wave of democratic evolution in Africa since 1990 also affected military professionalism. This article reviews three models for assessing how democratisation might affect military professionalism in Sub-Saharan Africa, with special attention to post-conflict states. This should make it possible to decide which analytical methods are most appropriate to measure military professionalism in the particular circumstances of Sub-Saharan African post-conflict democratisation. Depending upon the particular nation-state in question, this decision on analytical methods may be useful for other Sub-Saharan states as well.