基于PEPA的舰艇编队防空过程建模及分析

防空作战是大型水面舰艇编队的主要作战样式之一。本文运用PEPA（性能评价过程代数）方法对舰艇编队防空作战全过程进行有效建模,形式化描述了预警探测、情报传递、命令下达、防空拦截等作战主要过程。建立的PEPA模型具有层次化结构,考虑了要素间相互协作,体现了编队防空作战分布、并发的特点。通过对建立的PEPA模型进行性能指标选择和稳定状态分析,得到了不同因素对编队能力发挥的影响情况,获得了防空作战的基本要素组成。从而提供了一种解决舰艇编队问题的新方法。     

网络化舰艇编队防空体系构建及建模研究

网络化舰艇编队防空是未来防空作战的趋势。基于对舰艇防空网络化作战的需求分析,围绕网络化防空作战中网络连接对象和连接方式2个核心问题,建立了网络化舰艇防空传感器、指挥控制、武器系统的网络体系结构,并以CEC网络为基础,建立以对象Petri网的单平台防空指挥模型和舰艇编队防空指挥概念模型。此项研究对于舰艇编队防空网络化作战体系的优化分析和规划具有一定的指导意义。     

舰艇编队质心干扰中的无意毁伤判断

质心干扰是舰艇编队防空作战体系中一种非常关键的作战手段.针对舰艇编队协同防空作战过程中,怎样判断舰艇使用质心干扰抗击来袭的敌方反舰导弹目标时,是否会发生无意毁伤的问题,通过对舰艇质心干扰原理和无意毁伤根源的分析,建立了舰艇编队质心干扰中的无意毁伤判断模型,并进行了实例仿真.仿真结果表明,该模型能够辅助编队指挥员在制定编队协同防空作战方案时进行无意毁伤检测,从而消除方案中可能存在无意毁伤的风险,保证编队防空作战能力最大程度的发挥.     

舰艇编队对空防御火力分配评价模型

未来高技术条件下水面舰艇编队防空作战能力是其生存能力的关键因素.对舰艇编队防空来讲,进行硬抗击的武器主要是舰空导弹和舰炮两种,如何合理地利用这些武器,最大地发挥舰艇编队的防空作战能力,成为舰艇对空防御作战研究的一个重要课题.结合舰艇编队对空防御的实际情况,利用模糊数学的方法,建立了舰艇编队对空防御火力分配方案的模糊综合评价模型.     

编队协同防空作战中的电磁兼容判断模型

电磁兼容是影响编队协同防空作战能力发挥的一个关键问题,针对编队协同防空作战过程中,怎样判断编队各舰艇防空武器系统之间是否存在电磁冲突的问题,通过对编队防空作战电磁兼容原理的分析,建立了编队协同防空作战中的电磁兼容判断模型,能够辅助编队指挥员在制定编队协同防空决策方案时,进行电磁兼容检测,从而消除方案中可能存在的电磁冲突...     

编队协同防空作战中的火力兼容判断研究

火力兼容是影响编队协同防空作战能力发挥的一个关键问题。针对编队协同防空作战过程中,怎样判断各舰艇防空武器系统之间是否存在火力冲突的问题,通过对编队防空作战火力兼容原理的分析,建立了编队协同防空作战中的火力兼容判断模型。能够辅助编队指挥员在制定编队协同防空决策方案时,进行火力兼容检测,从而消除方案中可能存在的火力冲突,保证编队防空作战能力最大程度的发挥。     

舰艇编队防空体系复合免疫多智能体模型(英文)

舰艇编队对空防御作战是舰艇编队作战的主要样式之一。针对舰艇编队的防空问题,借鉴生物系统的防御机理,实现了舰艇编队防空体系与生物系统在结构和功能上的映射,并且结合多智能体理论与方法,设计了智能体的功能结构模型,构建了舰艇编队防空体系复合免疫多智能体网模型。该模型从整体上体现了舰艇编队防空体系的自组织性、自适应性、记忆性、自学习性和进化性等特性。这种新颖的研究思路也可为其他防御作战研究提供参考。     

模糊综合评判舰艇编队防空武器协同共用效能评估

为定量评估水面舰艇编队防空武器协同共用效能,依据舰艇编队对空防御的作战过程和信息流程,确立了防空武器协同共用效能评估指标体系,建立了基于模糊综合评判的防空武器协同共用效能评估模型。采用改进的层次分析法确定各因素的权重,运用模糊综合评判的方法,进行了综合的定量分析和应用计算,模型比较准确地反映了各种主要因素对防空武器协同共用效能的影响,为评价舰艇编队防空武器协同共用效能提供了分析依据。     

水面舰艇编队防空反导作战效能

为分析水面舰艇编队的防空反导作战效能,采用一种新方法,即按照防御层次进行分析的方法,对远层防御圈、中层防御圈、近层防御圈以及末端防御圈等四个防御圈在舰艇防空反导作战中的作用进行了研究,建立了新的舰艇编队防空反导作战效能模型.通过对模型的实例仿真,得到了几条符合防空作战理论的结论.     

军事卫星支援下舰艇编队防空作战模型研究

为了赢得较长的防空反导预警时间,运用影响图理论方法建立了军事卫星支援下的舰艇编队防空作战模型.该模型着重研究了红方军事卫星的不同系统参数对敌对双方损耗系数的影响程度,充分论证了军事卫星在舰艇编队防空作战中的预警支援与通信支援作用.所叙述的内容为进一步深入研究舰艇编队防空作战提供了参考.     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

Reviews

Douglas S. Derrer, We Are All the Target: A Handbook of Terrorism Avoidance and Hostage Survival. Annapolis, MD: US Naval Institute Press, 1992. Pp. x+135, notes, index. $14.95. ISBN 01–55750–150–5

Ian Knight, Zulu: Isandlwana and Rorke's Drift, 22–23 January 1879. London: Windrow & Greene, 1992. Pp.136, 150 illus., incl 8 colour plates, maps, biblio. £35. ISBN 1–872004–23–7

Ian Knight, By the Orders of the Great White Queen: Campaigning in Zululand through the Eyes of the British Soldiers, 1879. London: Greenhill Books and Novato: Presidio Press, 1992. Pp. 272, 17 illus., 1 map. £18.95. ISBN 1–85367–122–3

Manfried Rauchensteiner and Erwin A. Schmidl (eds.), Formen des Krieges: vom Mittelalter zum ‘Low‐intensity’ Conflict’. Graz : Verlag Styria, 1991. Pp.208. DM35. ISBN 3–22–12139–7

Harold J. Kearsley, Maritime Power and the Twenty‐First Century. Dartmouth: Dartmouth Publishing Company, Limited, 1992. Pp.xv + 203, 13 diagrams, index. £32.50. ISBN 1–85521–288–9     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Cyber sheiks and grassroots jihadis: the war in Syria and the devolution of the Bosnian Salafi communities

ABSTRACT

What was the scope of the Bosnian jihadi participation in the war in Syria? Did the Bosnian volunteers tend to join one particular faction? Why did the Bosnian youngsters decide to join the holy war in the Levant? Was this an organized and hierarchical process or was this a grassroots movement? Last, were all the Salafis in Bosnia supportive of this dynamic or did this process cause internal frictions? These are some of the questions that this research will try to answer.