基于SysML的联合火力打击方案建模方法

为了达成联合火力打击的作战目标,必须在决策层面上确定科学的作战方案,从而指导作战计划的制定.通过对联合火力打击方案建模,一方面可以在顶层控制和协调联合火力打击作战计划的制定,另一方面可以支持联合火力打击方案对作战使命目标完成效果的评估分析.在对当前常用建模语言的对比分析的基础上,提出基于SysML的联合火力打击方案建模方法,并给出了相关视图的描述范式.实际应用表明,该方法有利于提高作战方案决策的适应性和开放性.     

潜艇打击水面舰艇的作战方案效能评估ADC法

作战方案评估是指挥决策过程中关键的一步。首先从作战效能的角度建立潜艇打击水面舰艇作战方案效能指标体系,该指标体系充分体现现代作战的动态性和对抗性,并建立影响作战方案效能指标的数学模型,其次运用武器系统评估的ADC法对作战方案效能进行评估,使作战方案的评估更加简便、快捷。最后利用MATLAB编程实现作战方案的评估优选过程。     

基于可拓方法的C3I作战方案生成与评价

作战指挥决策支持系统是指挥自动化系统的重要组成部分,作战方案生成与评价是作战指挥决策支持系统的基本功能.根据作战指挥决策支持系统特点将可拓方法应用于作战方案生成与评价,并分析了其优势所在.结合空战案例运用发散树方法进行作战方案集的开拓,并利用优度评价方法进行作战方案的评价,从而得到最佳作战方案.     

基于模糊综合评判与作战模拟的作战方案评估

针对战役战术作战方案综合优选评估，科学辅助指挥员快速定下作战决心的问题，提出了一种基于模糊综合评判和作战模拟仿真相结合的作战方案综合评估方法，设计了作战方案评估指标体系和综合效用评估模型，通过静态运筹分析评判作战方案核心要素，动态模拟仿真评估作战行动效果，达到了评估作战方案的目的。最后通过实例验证了该方法模型的可行性，为指挥员科学指挥决策提供有力支撑。     

舰艇编队作战通道的模糊多属性优选方法

作战通道优选是编队作战指挥决策的重要内容之一,其结果是作战方案实施的重要依据,对火力打击效果有显著影响。从通道构成和人员使用两方面入手,分析影响作战通道性能的主要因素及其特点,构建作战通道性能评价指标体系,并运用模糊逼近度方法建立作战通道优选分析模型。通过实例分析,对作战通道进行了优选和排序,证明了本方法的有效性和实用性,为作战通道优选研究提供了一种新的备选方法。     

基于探索性分析的电子对抗作战方案评估方法

以空中进攻作战中对防空预警系统的电子对抗作战为例,研究了针对作战方案的变量设定方法和探索空间优化方法,设计了作战方案决策树结构、方案评估的指标体系、多分辨率模型和基于使命任务和作战效果的评估模型,构建了基于探索性分析的电子对抗作战方案评估框架。     

基于效果的炮兵火力打击控制示例

针对当代战争形态变化对炮兵战斗行动提出的诸多挑战,以我军炮兵战术理论为依据,借鉴美军"基于效果作战"理论,提出了一个具体的炮兵火力打击行动示例。通过运用"基于目标"与"基于效果"两种不同的作战思想对示例进行分析,既定性阐述了两种思想所制定作战方案的优劣,又根据对敌总体毁伤概率、炮兵生存概率、弹药消耗量和作战时间四个指标定量对比了两种作战思想下战斗结局的差异,从而论证了基于效果的炮兵火力打击控制思想的可行性和优异性,并通过模拟仿真,得出了一些有益于推动炮兵战术发展的普遍性结论。     

舰艇作战方案效能的对抗仿真评估指标与方法

阐述了基于对抗仿真的舰艇作战方案评估方法的基本思想,分析了基于作战仿真的舰艇作战方案效能评估的特点,构建了舰艇作战方案效能评估的指标体系,设计出作战仿真过程的总体框架.通过实例分析进一步说明评估作战方案的可行性、实用性,为舰艇作战方案的优化评估提供理论参考.     

基于时序打击的空地弹药消耗预测模型

空地弹药是打击地面目标的重要武器,科学预测其作战弹药消耗量十分重要.针对预测方法存在的目标函数构建不合理、约束条件设置不全面、时间要素缺乏等问题,提出了基于时序打击的空地弹药消耗预测模型.在火力分配方法的基础上,将作战过程分为多个阶段,综合考虑各种因素影响,以目标集合阶段指标完成度、出动架次数、飞机损失数和弹药消耗量的最小值作为目标函数,设置弹药储备、可用架次、飞机最大损失等约束条件,计算最优飞机-弹药-目标分配方案.定义的多要素目标函数有效解决了目标价值难以确定和目标函数组成单一的问题,提出的目标修复、架次损失、目标毁伤效果评估对弹药消耗影响的计算方法,使得预测模型更贴近作战实际.仿真算例结果表明:该方法合理有效、可操作性强,符合空地弹药打击特点,可为作战计划、弹药保障计划的制定提供有益借鉴.     

炮兵作战决策方案优选的方法

炮兵作战方案的选择,是炮兵作战指挥决策的关键环节,其合理与否,直接关系到炮兵作战效能的发挥和作战的成败.根据炮兵作战的实际,阐述了炮兵作战方案优选的依据,给出了运用层次分析法确定影响作战方案选择的各因素权重的方法步骤,在对优选依据的建模要素进行分析的基础上,构建了每个要素的效用函数计算模型,并给出了评估方案的计算方法,提供了模型应用的一般步骤.     

军事地理信息系统数据组织与显示实现及应用

在信息作战条件下,军事地理信息系统(MGIS)作为作战指挥自动化、数字化战场、辅助军事决策和现代武器系统的战场地理环境平台倍受世界各国的重视.在讨论军事地理系统的数据模型和数据结构的基础上,研究了军事地理信息系统的数据组织方法,针对数据存储结构设计进行了详细的论述,提出了一系列数据结构样本及数据系统设计方案,并通过软件开发实例,验证了其具体实现方法和途径.地图数据模型规划以Coverage模型为基础,在数据处理过程中以Geodatabase对象操作为原型,综合两者的优势,提高了海图的显示速度,并在实际工程中得到了很好的应用.     

陆军信息对抗行动效果评估研究

信息对抗行动是陆军作战的重要行动之一,对陆军作战进程和结局影响重大。通过对信息进攻、信息防御和信息保障等主要内容的定性与定量分析,建立评估指标体系、评估数学模型,得出综合评估结果,为指挥员和指挥机关筹划后续行动提供可靠依据,使效果评估工作更加合理准确。     

Estimating the economic impact of the 1973 Navy base closing: Models,tests, and an ex post evaluation of the forecasting performance

In 1973 the Defense Department made plans to close many Navy bases in the United States. Hardest hit was Rhode Island which would suffer a loss of 45.61% of the total cutback of 42,812 jobs. This paper describes two models which were built to forecast the severity of the economic impact in Rhode Island: one used the reduced form equation approach, and the other the simultaneous equations system approach. Tests on multicollinearity, specification, and serial correlation were conducted. An ex post evaluation of these two models' performance in forecasting then concludes the paper.     

基于效果的作战方案优化方法

针对实际作战中快速、正确的决策要求,在基于效果作战的概念下,采用面向实体的方法对作战方案进行建模,并提出基于DBN的评估网络作为方案优化的评估引擎,利用GA在评估结果中搜索得到最优的作战方案。最后以某登陆战役为实例验证了该方法的有效性。考虑了作战过程中的不确定因素,保证了优化后的方案能达到最佳效果的同时还具有较高的鲁棒性,为作战指挥员优选作战方案提供了科学依据。     

Joint determination of optimum variable and attribute target means

This article considers the problem of joint control of attribute and variable quality characteristics of a given product. Items are acceptable if they meet the specifications for both types of quality characteristics at the same time. Otherwise, the items are sold as scrap at reduced prices. The objective is to determine simultaneously the target values for each characteristic so as to maximize the expected profit per item. Several item-by-item quality-inspection plans are formulated on the basis of various inspection strategies. These strategies are defined in terms of whether the inspection is to be carried out simultaneously for both characteristics, or sequentially, or whether inspection for one of the characteristics is to be ignored. All these plans are shown to differ in terms of their profitability. However, they all yield equivalent quality standards. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the application of these models.     

Risk preference,multiple attributes,and multiple criteria in bayesian acceptance sampling plans

Although there has been considerable research directed toward developing Bayesian acceptance sampling plans, little consideration has been given to incorporating a decision-maker's risk attitude or treating such problems in terms of multiple-type defects and multiple criteria. We review our own work which is focused on the above issues. A model incorporating risk preference is shown to yield substantial differences in the characteristics of an optimal sampling plan relative to a typical Bayesian linear cost (risk neutral) model. Bayesian models and optimization schemes for a variety of multiple-type defect plans are reviewed. A bicriterion acceptance model, employing average outgoing quality and average inspection cost is also formulated. Traditional versus interactive optimization procedures are compared empirically in terms of ease of use, satisfaction with solutions, and insight gained into the problem.     

A recursive algorithm for a summed multinomial density function

An algorithm for calculating the probabilities of a summed multinomial density function which is recursive with n (the number of trials) is presented. Having application in inspector error models for auditing and quality control problems with Cartesian product structures, the algorithm is discussed in the context of computing optimal economic sampling plans. Computational experience with the algorithm is presented.     

A comparison of several attribute sampling plans

The purpose of this research is to examine several types of procedures for attribute sampling inspection-the widely used Military Standard 105D plans [8], the lesser known Double Zero plans as developed by Ellis [4] and the Narrow Limit gaging plans of Ott and Mundel [9]. Each of the procedures is described with an effort made to illuminate their more subtle features. Then the plans are compared, whence it is revealed that (i) Narrow Limit gaging plans have a serious weakness in comparison to the others and (ii) Double Zero plans tend to be essentially conservative, but that sufficiently tight Military Standard 105D plans can be selected to achieve comparable performance in all ways.     

Two‐stage component test plans for testing the reliability of a series system

A system reliability is often evaluated by individual tests of components that constitute the system. These component test plans have advantages over complete system based tests in terms of time and cost. In this paper, we consider the series system with n components, where the lifetime of the i‐th component follows exponential distribution with parameter λ_i. Assuming test costs for the components are different, we develop an efficient algorithm to design a two‐stage component test plan that satisfies the usual probability requirements on the system reliability and in addition minimizes the maximum expected cost. For the case of prior information in the form of upper bounds on λ_i's, we use the genetic algorithm to solve the associated optimization problems which are otherwise difficult to solve using mathematical programming techniques. The two‐stage component test plans are cost effective compared to single‐stage plans developed by Rajgopal and Mazumdar. We demonstrate through several numerical examples that our approach has the potential to reduce the overall testing costs significantly. © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 49: 95–116, 2002; DOI 10.1002/nav.1051