美国警卫工作理念探析

美国警卫以其过硬的个人素质、先进的警卫技术装备、严密的安全防范机制和在暗杀与反暗杀、破坏与反破坏较量中的出色业绩,被世界各国执法机关公认为是最优秀、最有经验的警卫机构之一,而美国警卫之所以能够做到这一点,警卫工作理念起着不容忽视的重要作用。通过追踪研究美国警卫工作的一些具体做法,笔者认为,美国警卫工作的主要理念是,“安全至上,情报为先,超前准备,以我为主”。     

Terrorism in West Africa: Real,emerging or imagined threats?

This essay locates the West African region in the context of the post-9/11 discourses on terrorism and counter-terrorism, particularly as it relates to the global war on terror. It identifies and analyses the issues and challenges that flow from the integration of West Africa into hegemonic transnational/globalised security arrangements, and the ways in which the emerging state (militaristic) and globalised security framework could reinforce or, paradoxically, undermine regional, intranational human and environmental security in one of Africa's most troubled regions. It critically examines the possibility of a terrorist threat in the region and analyses the global stakes involved in integrating West Africa into the global war on terror. On this basis, it concludes that zero-sum, militarist, globally driven solutions may fail to address the historical, political, and socio-economic roots of a possible terrorist threat in West Africa.     

Indications and warning in Belgium: Brussels is not Delphi

The terrorist attacks in France and Belgium of 2015–2016 that occurred while these countries were in a heightened state of alert raise questions about indications and warning methodology as well as effectiveness of the blanket-protection deployment of security services assisted even by the military. Response and perhaps even more anticipation may require strategic rethinking in light of the predatory attacks that target the most vulnerable spots of the public space. This study looks at threat analysis in Belgium as conducted through her intelligence fusion centre Coordination Unit for Threat Analysis (CUTA)?????? since its inception in 2006. With a special focus on what is known, at the time of writing, about the terrorist attacks in Paris and Brussels, this study hopes to put into context how the system (mal)functions and will also consider the preventive measures that respond to the threat, and the international aspects which have implications far beyond Belgian borders. Therefore, a case is made for not just a Belgian homeland security framework, but one that fits into an EU-wide security concept.     

ESCAPE FROM NUCLEAR DETERRENCE

Since the post-World War II genesis of nuclear deterrence, two presidential initiatives have been presented to deliver humanity from the threat of its failure. The first was the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), a constellation of space- and ground-based systems that President Ronald Reagan envisioned would render nuclear weapons “impotent and obsolete.” The second is President Barack Obama's roadmap to “a world without nuclear weapons,” commonly referred to as “Global Zero.” While these proposals appear to have little in common, deeper investigation reveals a number of provocative similarities in motivation and presentation. Moreover, both generated fierce debate, often with ideological overtones, about their strategic desirability and technical feasibility. We use these parallels, as well as prominent dissimilarities, to draw lessons from the SDI experience that can be applied to the debate over Global Zero.     

The Kashmir conflict in South Asia: voices from Srinagar

This article looks at the Kashmir conflict in South Asia, which has been going on since 1947, when India and Pakistan became independent from British colonial rule. After looking at some historical background, the article looks at both the external dimension as well as the internal dimension of the conflict. The external dimension tends to focus on Indo-Pak relations over Kashmir and the internal dimension looks at India's repressive state policies within the state of Kashmir. This article uses Mary Kaldor's “New War” thesis as a theoretical framework to understand the situation and pays special attention to the conflict's very complex and multifaceted nature. The article argues that although the levels of violence have differed from time to time in the region since 1947, today the conflict seems to have less to do with Indo-Pak relations or the external side of things and has more to do with the internal dimension and India's undemocratic ways within Kashmir. Today, Kashmir is one of the most militarised conflict zones in the world. The stationing of the Indian military and paramilitary forces in the region has only exacerbated the situation since it is the security personnel who cause much of the problem. The Armed Forces Special Powers Act gives these security forces extraordinary powers in the region, which they often abuse. The armed forces have no real understanding of the local culture or sympathy for local religious sentiments. Poverty, corruption, administrative failure, police brutality, identity politics and human rights abuses are some of the key features associated with this conflict. Methodologically, a number of interviews were carried out with the local people in the region recently. From the data gathered through the interviews, it is very obvious that the people still feel very oppressed and that the situation is still very volatile, fraught with uncertainty. Finally, after making an assessment of the situation, the article tries to suggest methods of peaceful building and conflict management as the way forward.     

对警卫工作中反恐怖活动的思考

恐怖活动已成为世界一大公害，给一些国家和人民带来巨大的精神压力和心理恐惧，给国家政局稳定和经济发展造成巨大的负面影响。探索警卫工作中反恐怖斗争的方法、对策，对于防范和打击恐怖活动，确保各项警卫任务的圆满完成具有重要意义。     

The SSA-BP-based potential threat prediction for aerial target considering commander emotion

The target's threat prediction is an essential procedure for the situation analysis in an aerial defense system. However, the traditional threat prediction methods mostly ignore the effect of commander's emotion. They only predict a target's present threat from the target's features itself, which leads to their poor ability in a complex situation. To aerial targets, this paper proposes a method for its potential threat prediction considering commander emotion (PTP-CE) that uses the Bi-directional LSTM (BiLSTM) network and the backpropagation neural network (BP) optimized by the sparrow search algorithm (SSA). Furthermore, we use the BiLSTM to predict the target's future state from real-time series data, and then adopt the SSA-BP to combine the target's state with the commander's emotion to establish a threat prediction model. Therefore, the target's potential threat level can be obtained by this threat prediction model from the predicted future state and the recognized emotion. The experimental results show that the PTP-CE is efficient for aerial target's state prediction and threat prediction, regardless of commander's emotional effect.     

自杀式恐怖袭击对警卫工作的威胁及其防范

近年来，越来越多的恐怖组织选择了自杀式恐怖袭击作为实现自身目的的方式，给世界各国人民的生命财产安全带来了深重的灾难，也给警卫工作带来了严重威胁。了解自杀式恐怖袭击的攻击目标、手段，认识其对警卫工作的严重危害，认真思考防范、打击对策，对确保警卫安全具有重要的现实意义。     

洛杉矶警察局反恐策略及对我国公安反恐工作的启示

洛杉矶警察局在9.11事件之后,不断积累预防和打击恐怖主义的经验,提高自身反恐能力,并在实际的预防打击恐怖主义斗争中做出了重要贡献。恐怖主义是全世界的敌人。针对中国的恐怖主义威胁现状,我国公安机关作为预防和打击恐怖主义的重要力量,要研究和借鉴他们好的经验,坚决打击国内恐怖主义的发展势头,以维护中国的安全稳定。     

海警部队海上反恐斗争面临的形势及对策

近年来，国际海上恐怖活动日益增多，公安海警部队海上反恐斗争形势严峻。为此，部队必须适应海上恐怖活动的特点，完善反恐工作机制，制定有效的反恐策略，切实提高海上反恐作战能力，以维护国家海洋权益及海上安全。     

The coming multi-order world

The article shows that the current international system is changing towards a completely new form of international system, conceptualized as a multi-order system. The suggestion for a multi-order world stands in contrast to three current narratives about the future global order expressed through a multipolar narrative; a multi-partner narrative and a multi-culture narrative. The article demonstrates that although each narrative points to a plausible future, neither fully captures what lies ahead. Using English School concepts such as order, international society, international system and primary and secondary institutions, the article reveals a conception of the coming international system as a system consisting of several different ‘orders’ (or international societies) nested within an overall international system. In the coming ‘multi-order world’, the liberal order will continue, and may even be strengthened internally, but its global reach will be a thing of the past. Moreover, the challenge in a multi-order world will be to forge new forms of relationships between composite and diverse actors across complex lines of division and convergence. Scholars and policy-makers should note that the coming multi-order world will be radically different, requiring new thinking and new institutions and the acceptance of diversity in both power and principle.     

The Management of Pakistan's Nuclear Arsenal

Pakistan, the fastest growing nuclear weapon state in the world, has established over the last decade a nuclear management system it holds to be “foolproof.” Despite the explosion of radical groups challenging the writ of the state, it dismisses concerns by critics that its nuclear weapons are not safe and secure as “preposterous” and an attempt to “malign” the state. This article examines Pakistan's nuclear management system in four functional areas: command-and-control, physical security, nuclear surety, and doctrine. It describes what is publicly known in each area, identifies areas of omission and inadequacy in each one, and examines several premises of the nuclear program the author considers to be unfounded. Comparing these deficiencies in Pakistan's nuclear management system to the current problems plaguing the US nuclear management system, the author concludes that complacency and unfounded confidence in the efficacy of such programs, if not addressed and corrected, could lead to a future nuclear catastrophe in South Asia.     

The ties that bind

Analysis of the failures of African security forces generally focuses on structural issues such as corruption of senior leadership, insufficient equipment and training, and coup d’état fears driving mistrust of armies that are too strong or effective. However, less examined is the role that sub-state identity plays; using Libya, South Sudan, and Mali as case studies, this paper examines how ethnicity inhibits the development of national armies, divides them, and exposes a critical flaw that adversaries are able to exploit. Given the increasingly ethnic nature of conflict throughout the world, and the rising threat that ethnic conflicts in Africa pose to regional and Western partners, it may be prudent for researchers, policymakers and other stakeholders to examine the critical role that sub-state identity plays in undermining African security forces.     

Fragmented forces: The development of the Gambian military

This article provides a detailed look at the history of the Gambia Armed Forces (GAF), a military that has received very little academic attention within the study of African state security forces. It identifies key turning points in the GAF’s history, and highlights the vastly different roles the military played in the state under President Jawara (1965–94) and President Jammeh (1994–2017). Yet, it also highlights important similarities regarding internal patterns within the armed forces and shows the ways in which these continuities may challenge attempts to restructure the security sector. The article draws on archival research and interviews conducted with retired and active duty Gambian military personnel, government officials, and Gambian scholars.     

Assessing the role of the African Union in preventing and combating terrorism in Africa

The period after 9/11 can be characterised as the terrorism moment in world history. Every actor in international relations—the state, regional, continental and international as well as civil society organisations—has been mobilised to combat what, apparently has been conceived as a common security threat to humanity. The transformation of the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) into the African Union (AU) was a divine coincidence at a time when multilateralism and international cooperation were being challenged by the threat of terrorism. In the post-9/11 period, the main concern of the Union has been to reinforce and implement existing counter-terrorism instruments adopted at the continental level in coordination with states and regional organisations. This article discusses and appraises the endeavours undertaken by the AU and its precursor organisation, the OAU, in tackling and dealing with the threat of terrorism despite limitations to its human and financial resources. In recognition of the nature of the states in Africa and the challenges facing the Union, we argue that the role of the AU remains critical in order to fill the gaps where its member states or regional mechanisms are lacking. In this regard, we stress that the role of the AU should be complementary and serve as an interface between the continent and the international community, including the United Nations.     

Civil-military relations and human security in a post-dictatorship

This article explores current developments in Chile, where since the return to democracy in 1990, the elected authorities have reconfigured the nation’s military resources in favour of four action pillars: peacekeeping and international conflict management, landmine removal and gun disarmament, emergency and catastrophe response, and a concern for human, economic and social rights. Successive defence policies offer a valuable case study for exploring the trade-offs between security, traditional and non-traditional threat management and institutional capabilities. The article argues that human security policymaking is not free from undesired outcomes; specifically, regarding how to reconvene the role of the armed forces when conventional war seems a thing of the past. The paper focuses on the interagency policy implications and the challenges ahead for civilians and the military.     

低慢小无人机对军事区域的安全威胁及其应对方法

低慢小无人机具有小型化、红外与雷达暴露征候小、飞行高度低、飞行轨迹不定以及购买使用几乎无门槛等特征,给当前全球军事区域和军事行动安全带来了新的挑战。本文首先分析了世界主要国家对低慢小无人机的界定、国内外管控情况和相关威胁事件;然后,从低慢小无人机的侦察袭击能力、军事区域现有安防措施和低慢小无人机对军事区域进行侦察的相关案例入手,讨论了低慢小无人机对军事区域的侦察袭击的威胁;最后从政策制度、营区部署与隐蔽伪装以及反制措施配置三方面对军事区域防低慢小无人机侦察袭击的手段与措施进行了分析和研究,重点就机动性、经济性、技术难度、可操作性、反应速度、打击效果、能否对抗集群目标以及适用场合等方面对当前各种反无人机的干扰、驱离、毁坏措施进行了对比。     

小型侦察无人机任务能力及拒止距离分析

随着无人机技术的快速发展,无人机已在民用、军事领域得到广泛应用.尤其是具有"低慢小"特征的小型无人机,使用方便灵活,成本相对低廉,可用于执行侦察监视、自杀袭击等任务,对日常防空安全、重要目标防护构成严重威胁.分析研究了小型无人机主要威胁样式,重点分析了小型侦察无人机载荷任务能力,提出对该类目标拒止距离需求,可为相关拦截...     

Some branch-and-bound procedures for fixed-cost transportation problems

In this article we present three properties that will improve the performance of branch-and-bound algorithms for fixed-cost transportation problems. By applying Lagrangian relaxation we show that one can develop stronger up and down penalties than those traditionally used and also develop a strengthened penalty for nonbasic variables. We also show that it is possible to “look ahead” of a particular node and determine the solution at the next node without actually calculating it. We present computational evidence by comparing our developments with existing procedures.     

基于遗传算法的信息系统安全技术方案

组织如何制定优化的信息安全技术方案以降低脆弱性对其信息系统的威胁,是信息安全管理领域的关键问题。在描述信息系统安全技术方案决策模型的基础上,提出了一种求解信息系统安全技术方案优化问题的自适应遗传算法,使得组织能以最少的方案实施费用最大限度地处置脆弱性,并以实例说明了该算法的有效性。