“洗”不净 长沾染 危害重 造不难 “脏弹”到底有多“脏”?

“9·11”恐怖袭击事件发生后,美国发动了一场声势浩大的反恐战争,对涉嫌制造“9·11”事件的本·拉登及其领导的“基地”组织进行了毁灭性的打击。“基地”组织几近土崩瓦解。然而,道高一尺魔高一丈,恐怖分子是不愿善罢甘休的。他们发誓要同美国斗到底,并且扬言要采取一切可能的措施报复美国。恐怖分子的威胁并非危言耸听,最近搞得美国人心惶惶的“脏弹”就是恐怖分子们可能用来发动恐怖袭击的“撒手锏”。     

“脏弹”恐怖袭击威胁不容忽视

“脏弹”是利用炸药爆炸或特殊手段,将放射性物质散布到环境中的装置。虽然“脏弹”不像核武器那样具有毁灭性,但其所散布的放射性颗粒同样能造成巨大的危害。目前,恐怖分子使用“脏弹”进行恐怖袭击的可能性逐渐增大。一、恐怖分子对恐怖活动暴烈性的追求是产生“脏弹”恐怖袭击的根源为达到更大的影响力,恐怖分子不断寻求危害更大的袭击方式。“脏弹”爆炸后产生的巨大危害吸引恐怖分子实施此类袭击。(一)恐怖分子对恐怖活动暴烈性的追求促使其寻求危害更大的袭击方式恐怖活动是恐怖组织为达成其政治或经济目的而进行的暴力活动,其目的是…     

美军向恐怖分子网站“开火”

恐怖分子一直利用网站招募成员、筹集资金和发布恐怖信息,同时还利用网络科技进行跨国作案,其中仅通过网络公布的恐怖袭击视频,过去两年间就增加了7倍,给民众心理造成极大恐慌。对此,美国军方计划花费2000万英镑,打击恐怖分子的电脑网络,并誓言将这些网站打到“关张”为止。多管齐下利用网络资源美国联邦调查局一名高级官员曾表     

英国:恐怖袭击新目标

在7·7伦敦爆炸案两周年之际,英国再次遭遇恐怖袭击浪潮:6月29日,伦敦警方挫败了两起汽车炸弹袭击阴谋;6月30日,苏格兰最大的格拉斯哥机场遭到汽车炸弹袭击。英国一时间风声鹤唳。英国恐怖警报不断拉响"9·11"事件之后,美国加强了国内及海外目标的安全警戒和防护级别,投入了大量的人力、物力、财力用于防范和打击可能的恐怖袭击活动,打压恐怖分子活动空间,     

“9·11事件”对各国军队建设的影响

2001年9月11日,美国纽约、华盛顿同时遭到恐怖分子的袭击。这一史无前例的恐怖袭击事件,引起世界的极大震惊。这次事件表明,恐怖主义活动是当今世界面临的巨大威胁和严峻挑战,打击恐怖主义已成为各国军队的重要任务,必将对世界军事发展趋势产生一定的影响。增加军费投入,调整军备发展重点加强新形势下反恐怖作战的建设     

多用途“航行器”——以色列“保护者”无人水面艇

2000年10月12日美海军"科尔"号导弹驱逐舰(DDG67)在也门的亚丁港停泊和加油时,受到恐怖分子的自杀性攻击,舰体被炸开一个大洞,17名美国水兵被炸死,30多人受伤。这次恐怖袭击是自1987年以来美海军所遭受的最沉重的打击。"科尔"号导弹驱逐舰被炸后,各     

从孟买恐怖袭击看印度港口保卫

2008年11月26日21时30分，印度最重要的商业城市和港口孟买，爆发了一场持续时间长达62小时的恐怖袭击。包括火车站、医院在内的10处地点遭遇了连环爆炸和恐怖分子的持枪袭击。而恐怖分子随后在孟买泰姬陵酒店（又译泰姬马哈酒店）等地标性建筑发动的劫持人质，与军警对峙等行动则造成了更为严重的伤亡。此次恐怖袭击造成175人死亡，250人受伤。     

谈处置核生化恐怖袭击的警卫战术

核生化武器在非战场上被恐怖分子使用,已引起各国政府和民众的极大关注.警卫人员如何面对核生化恐怖活动的严重威胁,确保警卫对象的绝对安全,是摆在我们面前的一个刻不容缓的新课题.论述了核生化恐怖袭击的概念和特点、处置核生化恐怖袭击的特点,以及如何提高警卫部队处置核生化恐怖袭击综合能力.     

美国急谋反恐新思路

“9·11”事件已经过去了整整7个年头，然而，阿富汗不休的战事和伊拉克难绝的恐怖袭击，让美国仍然无法摆脱“越反越恐”的尴尬局面。7年来，美国咄咄逼人的“先发制人”打击，一定程度上压制了恐怖分子的行动，但这种大规模的全球性军事干涉也使国际恐怖主义哨然发生变化。针对反恐困局和恐怖主义的新挑战，美一些学者提出“低姿态全球战略”的反恐新思维，主张采取更为精巧、灵活的方法打击恐怖主义，力求让美国快速走出反恐困局。     

反恐怖武器装备发展问题浅探

从“9·11”事件到俄罗斯别斯兰人质事件,再到前不久刚刚发生的伦敦恐怖爆炸案,世界暴力恐怖活动呈现出日益猖獗的趋势。我国也面临着越来越严重的恐怖威胁,国际恐怖分子针对我国外工作人员的恐怖袭击和人质劫持事件越来越多熏打击恐怖主义同样成为我国政府面对的重要任务。现阶段,世界反恐行动都面临着获取情报困难、反恐手段单一、反恐武器装备有效性差等难题,而加强反恐武器装备研究发展,则是反恐行动的物质基础,必须引起高度关注。一、发展反恐武器装备的紧迫性和必要性研究发展反恐武器装备,将成为及时准确获取恐怖活动信息、推动反恐…     

The Randomization of Terrorist Attacks

The purpose of this article is to explore the economic theoretical foundations of the idea that rational terrorist organizations deliberately randomize their attacks (by type, timing, location, and targets) to generate uncertainty and intimidation. A choice theoretic framework is applied to the analysis of the terrorist organization's behavior to determine whether welfare (utility) gains from the randomization of terrorist attacks are plausible and feasible. The randomization of attacks can appear to promise higher amounts of political influence for each resource input but it turns out that randomization cannot manufacture a situation where higher amounts of political influence are obtained for each resource input.The results imply that, rather than randomization and instability, the rational terrorist organization is more likely to prefer stability. The findings and implications provide a theoretical explanation for the non-randomness of terrorist attacks.Thismay be one small step towards explaining the patterns – non-randomness – in the time-series of terrorist incidents.     

A cost–benefit analysis of terrorist attacks

A cost–benefit analysis of terrorist attacks is developed and placed within a systematic theoretical structure. For the target or object of the attack, we consider the lost value of human lives, lost economic value, and lost influence value, counted as benefits for the terrorist. The corresponding losses for the terrorist are counted as costs. The terrorist attacks if benefits outweigh costs. Bounded rationality is enabled where the three kinds of benefits and costs can be weighted differently. We account for two ex ante probabilities of successful planning and attack, and enable the terrorist to assign different weights to its multiple stakeholders. We introduce multiple time periods, time discounting, attitudes towards risk, and subcategories for the benefits and costs. The cost–benefit analysis is illustrated with the 11 September 2001 attack, and 53 incidents in the Global Terrorism Database yielding both positive and negative expected utilities. The paper is intended as a tool for scientists and policy-makers, as a way of thinking about costs and benefits of terrorist attacks.     

恐怖活动中公众心理恐惧效应对社会稳定的影响及对策

恐怖活动往往导致公众的巨大心理恐惧效应,极易造成一定程度甚至是大规模的社会恐慌,严重影响社会稳定。因此,降低公众对恐怖袭击活动的心理恐惧效应、提高其心理承受能力,对恐怖活动发生时维护社会稳定具有重要意义。     

SUICIDE TERRORISM AND THE BACKLASH EFFECT

This paper presents a game‐theoretic model of suicide terrorism containing three agents: the terrorist leader; a targeted government; and potential terrorist supporters. Supporters join the terrorist group if they gain more from their participation than from their economic opportunities. Preemptive measures by the government can result in a backlash that encourages recruitment through new grievances. Suicide attacks can also lead to recruitment. Increases in preemption costs and/or economic opportunities can reduce the overall level of terrorism, while increasing the proportion of suicide to normal attacks. An increase in the effect of preemption on recruitment, or the propaganda effect of suicide bombings has the opposite effect of increasing normal and suicide attacks, but decreasing the proportion of suicide to normal attacks in the terrorist organization’s strategy profile.     

北京奥运安保与反恐

从第20届慕尼黑奥运会开始,恐怖袭击事件不断。当前,北京奥运会也面临恐怖袭击现实威胁。为此,举全国公安机关之力,配合中国人民解放军的反恐行动,加强国际合作,北京奥运会完全有能力预防各种形式的恐怖袭击。     

Weakest‐link attacker‐defender games with multiple attack technologies

In this article, we examine a model of terrorism that focuses on the tradeoffs facing a terrorist organization that has two qualitatively different attack modes at its disposal. The terrorist organization's objective is to successfully attack at least one target. Success for the target government is defined as defending all targets from any and all attacks. In this context, we examine how terrorist entities strategically utilize an efficient but discrete attack technology — e.g., suicide attacks — when a more conventional mode of attack is available, and the optimal anti‐terrorism measures.© 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

PROTECTING CULTURAL MONUMENTS AGAINST TERRORISM

Famous cultural monuments are often regarded as unique icons, making them an attractive target for terrorists. Despite huge military and police outlays, terrorist attacks on important monuments can hardly be avoided. We argue that an effective strategy to discourage terrorist attacks on iconic monuments is for a government to show a firm commitment to swift reconstruction. Using a simple game‐theoretic model, we demonstrate how a credible claim to rebuild any destroyed cultural monument discourages terrorist attacks by altering the terrorists' expectations and by increasing the government's reputation costs if they fail to rebuild.     

恐怖活动对新疆边境地区的影响及对策

长期以来,新疆恐怖活动组织与＂三股势力＂相勾结,制造了多起恐怖活动事件,给新疆边境地区的安全与稳定带来了严重威胁。为此,针对新疆边境地区的特殊性以及恐怖活动的态势,分析了恐怖活动对新疆边境地区的影响,从提升反恐的主动发现能力、加强情报预警工作、加强防范措施的严密性等方面提出了遏制新疆恐怖活动的对策。     

空中反恐中保卫目标重要度指标体系研究

空中恐怖袭击具有突然性和随意性的特点,其目的是通过制造恐怖事件引起巨大影响,带来社会恐慌。通过分析空中恐怖袭击对袭击目标选择的特点,剖析其规律性,从而建立空中反恐保卫目标重要度指标体系和保卫目标重要度评价模型,对保卫目标进行科学有效地划定与排序,便于在空中反恐作战中对保卫目标及早进行确定、实施空中警戒范围划定和战斗部署。     

The ballot or the bomb belt: the roots of female suicide terrorism before and after 9/11

ABSTRACT

In recent years, an upward trend in terrorist attacks has mirrored an increase in suicide attacks. According to our preliminary analysis, the events of September 11^th marked a sea change in the number of terrorist attacks. While a rich literature has evaluated why terrorists participate in suicide attacks, none have considered the uptick in volume after 9/11, and fewer yet have considered how female fighters may be contributing to this. We evaluate how both structural and female-specific factors affect the likelihood of female fighter suicide attacks. Recent literature discovered a trend in terrorist groups using females as suicide bombers due to cultural norms that permit them to get closer to targets. We test our theory using data from the Chicago Project on Security and Threats Suicide Attack Database (CPOST-SAD) and various datasets from the Quality of Government (QOG) compendium for the 1986–2016 time period. We construct a series of models that consider both female-specific and structural factors that could explain variation in the number of female suicide attacks. Our results indicate that our models encompass relatively stable patterns. Female political empowerment, female educational attainment, and female employment rates are significant and positive in our post-9/11 models, indicating that they may increase female suicide attacks. Democracy is a relevant structural factor and generally yields a positive effect on female suicide attacks across both time periods and multiple models. Ethnic fractionalization is significant in both time periods but yields a negative effect before 9/11 and a positive effect in the later period.