有毒化学品泄漏事故最佳疏散路径研究

在归纳总结有毒化学品泄漏事故应急疏散范围确定方法的基础上,分析了不同疏散路径的可通行性,提出了当量最短路径的动态规划模型,并以苯泄漏事故为例,应用逆序解法,得出苯泄漏事故人员疏散k条最佳疏散路径.实例计算表明:动态规划方法求解最短路径的可行性,计算结果为指导消防部队最佳疏散路径的确定提供参考.     

基于大气扩散模型的危险化学品事故疏散模拟训练方法

根据危险化学品泄漏扩散机理和影响因素，提出了构建包含数据库、模型库和知识库的危险化学品事故疏散模拟训练系统的设想。该系统利用大气扩散软件，对于不同的事故情景，能够用图形形象地表示敏感点的化学品浓度分布和影响范围，可以帮助应急指挥人员快速、准确地预测影响区域，有效地组织、指挥不同区域人员疏散。最后提出了使用该系统进行疏散模拟训练的方法。     

从一起氯气泄漏爆炸事故析氯碱化工事故的处置

通过对重庆天源化工总厂“4·16”氯气泄漏爆炸事故的处置过程的分析，认为建立一个统一的、科学的、协调的、高效的指挥体系是事故处置成功与否的关键，而且应妥善、科学的做好应急人员疏散工作，提出了对液氯生产事故处置程序的意见并分析了处置中应注意的问题。     

基于情景模型的重大突发事件人员应急疏散方法

针对重大突发事件人员应急疏散难题,提出了基于情景应对的应急决策方法.将重大突发事件相关关键属性表示为一系列情景,对情景进行定性与定量相结合的描述.以疏散时间作为决策收益的判断标准,引入交通流量算法并考虑安全距离,建立数学模型.通过计算机仿真应急疏散算例,求解决策的最优解,验证了方法的有效性.     

大型公共场所火灾安全疏散研究

大型公共场所一旦发生火灾，非常容易造成群死群伤的严重后果。为杜绝类似事故的发生，研究火灾时人员的安全疏散就具有重要意义。结合工作实际，回顾了人员安全疏散研究的背景和现状，分析了火灾探测和危险的临界条件以及人员安全疏散的时间要求。根据影响安全疏散的各种因素，提出了安全疏散的要求，对于大型公共场所的高层建筑、地下建筑和商场的疏散设计具有一定的指导意义。     

宜昌市猇亭区举行危化品泄漏应急救援演练

近日，湖北省宜昌市犹亭区在兴发集团宜昌精细化工园举行危险化学品泄漏应急救援综合演练，检验了政府部门、军事机关、企业、民兵预备役部队应对突发危险化学品泄漏事故的准备情况和指挥处置能力。演练突出事故报告、预案启动、现场指挥、情况处置、善后处理等重点环节，并取得了良好效果。图为民兵防化应急救援分队对液氨储罐进行堵漏处置。     

城市人口应急疏散方案优化

通过对城市人口应急疏散方案拟制过程及关键模型分析,从系统诊断、系统分析和系统评价优化的角度,构建城市人口应急疏散方案优化的整体设计框架。在此基础上,利用GIS平台开发的辅助分析系统,对实例进行应用分析,检验了疏散方案优化设计的有效性和实用性。     

重大易燃易爆物质泄漏的危害及应急对策

针对重大易燃易爆物质泄漏后所表现出来的易燃易爆性、对周围的人员和空气、水土等环境资源的严重破坏性,分析了易燃易爆物质泄漏的原因,并有针对性的从划定警戒区、查找泄漏点、堵漏、泄漏物质的浓度监测、排除火险因素、安全疏散、个人防护等方面提出了应急处置对策。     

复杂多功能区域人员疏散方案优化设计探讨

针对复杂多功能区域建筑物,设定了最不利疏散条件和火灾发展过程处于最不利情况的模拟场景.根据火灾烟气危险状态判据临界值,结合复杂多功能区域疏散性能模拟软件,模拟预测某超市二楼商业区火灾烟气流动特性数据,计算出该商业区的人员可用安全疏散时间,进而为消防疏散方案设计人员提供重要数据依据,便于其结合工程实际情况进行消防方案优化改进,确保商业区在火灾事故时,具备一定的安全疏散系统设施和足够的安全疏散时间.     

假如化学品泄漏事故明天发生

为提高民兵应急分队完成多样化军事任务的能力,针对当地化工企业较多.危险品运输任务较重的实际,2008年12月17日上午.浙江省诸暨市政府、人武部、市安监局联合组织民兵应急分队开展了危险化学品泄漏事故应急抢险演练。     

面向装备作战仿真的弹药调拨供应决策建模方法研究

针对用线性规划方法在解决弹药调拨供应决策过程中存在的弹药调拨供应量的分配与弹药保障原则关联不紧密的问题,采用目标规划理论与方法,引入优先级区分主要作战方向和次要作战方向弹药库的重要程度,在同一优先级上以权重区分一梯队、二梯队及预备队弹药库的弹药保障优先顺序,使得模型的构建过程与弹药保障原则紧密相联。同时,在模型构建过程中,综合考虑了弹药消耗预测量、弹药储备标准和弹药运输时限等因素对弹药调拨供应决策的影响,并从本级弹药储备不足和充足两种情况进行了数值模型及分析,验证了模型的正确性与可靠性,为弹药调拨供应提供了决策支持与理论支撑。     

Dynamic evacuation routes for personnel on a naval ship

We propose a dynamic escape route system for emergency evacuation of a naval ship. The system employs signals that adapt to the causative contingency and the crew's physical distribution about the ship. A mixed‐integer nonlinear programming model, with underlying network structure, optimizes the evacuation process. The network's nodes represent compartments, closures (e.g., doors and hatches) and intersections, while arcs represent various types of passageways. The objective function integrates two potentially conflicting factors: average evacuation time and the watertight and airtight integrity of the ship after evacuation. A heuristic solves the model approximately using a sequence of mixed‐integer linear approximating problems. Using data for a Spanish frigate, with standard static routes specified by the ship's designers, computational tests show that the dynamic system can reduce average evacuation times, nearly 23%, and can improve a combined measure of ship integrity by up to 50%. In addition, plausible design changes to the frigate yield further, substantial improvements. Published 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2008     

An exact network flow formulation for cell‐based evacuation in urban areas

In the literature two common macroscopic evacuation planning approaches exist: The dynamic network flow approach and the Cell–Transmission–Based approach. Both approaches have advantages and disadvantages. Many efficient solution approaches for the dynamic network flow approach exist so that realistic problem instances can be considered. However, the consideration of (more) realistic aspects (eg, density dependent travel times) results in non‐linear model formulations. The Cell‐Transmission‐Based approach on the other hand considers realistic traffic phenomena like shock waves and traffic congestion, but this approach leads to long computational times for realistic problem instances. In this article, we combine the advantages of both approaches: We consider a Cell‐Transmission‐Based Evacuation Planning Model (CTEPM) and present a network flow formulation that is equivalent to the cell‐based model. Thus, the computational costs of the CTEPM are enormously reduced due to the reformulation and the detailed representation of the traffic flow dynamics is maintained. We investigate the impacts of various evacuation scenario parameters on the evacuation performance and on the computational times in a computational study including 90 realistic instances.     

Mathematical control theory solution of an interactive accounting flows model

In this paper we have applied the mathematical control theory to the accounting network flows, where the flow rates are constrained by linear inequalities. The optimal control policy is of the “generalized bang-bang” variety which is obtained by solving at each instant in time a linear programming problem whose objective function parameters are determined by the “switching function” which is derived from the Hamiltonian function. The interpretation of the adjoint variables of the control problem and the dual evaluators of the linear programming problem demonstrates an interesting interaction of the cross section phase of the problem, which is characterized by linear programming, and the dynamic phase of the problem, which is characterized by control theory.     

A forward network simplex algorithm for solving multiperiod network flow problems

An optimization model which is frequently used to assist decision makers in the areas of resource scheduling, planning, and distribution is the minimum cost multiperiod network flow problem. This model describes network structure decision-making problems over time. Such problems arise in the areas of production/distribution systems, economic planning, communication systems, material handling systems, traffic systems, railway systems, building evacuation systems, energy systems, as well as in many others. Although existing network solution techniques are efficient, there are still limitations to the size of problems that can be solved. To date, only a few researchers have taken the multiperiod structure into consideration in devising efficient solution methods. Standard network codes are usually used because of their availability and perceived efficiency. In this paper we discuss the development, implementation, and computational testing of a new technique, the forward network simplex method, for solving linear, minimum cost, multiperiod network flow problems. The forward network simplex method is a forward algorithm which exploits the natural decomposition of multiperiod network problems by limiting its pivoting activity. A forward algorithm is an approach to solving dynamic problems by solving successively longer finite subproblems, terminating when a stopping rule can be invoked or a decision horizon found. Such procedures are available for a large number of special structure models. Here we describe the specialization of the forward simplex method of Aronson, Morton, and Thompson to solving multiperiod network network flow problems. Computational results indicate that both the solution time and pivot count are linear in the number of periods. For standard network optimization codes, which do not exploit the multiperiod structure, the pivot count is linear in the number of periods; however, the solution time is quadratic.     

基于梯形直觉模糊数的动态多准则群决策方法

针对决策信息为梯形直觉模糊数的多准则决策问题,引入含参得分函数和相关系数提出了一种动态多准则群决策方法,首先利用参照方案相关系数总偏差最小的非线性规划模型求解客观准则权重,通过参数因子转化犹豫度集结得到各方案综合得分函数,最后根据参数动态变化进行MATLAB仿真分析并排序。该方法适用于准则权重已知和未知的情形,弥补了犹豫度缺失和基于距离测度决策方法的缺陷,并通过航空装备保障合同商的选择决策实例验证了有效性。     

影响指挥员军事决策的因素分析

现代高技术条件下的局部战争,军事活动的节奏明显加快,作战空间跨域扩展,战场态势复杂多变,尤其是当重大危机发生时,对军事决策的时效性提出了更高要求,指挥员必须能够及时、果断、有效、准确地定下作战决心。指挥员军事决策的有效性不仅受主观因素的影响,还受客观因素的影响。通过对影响因素的分析,提出提高指挥员军事决策能力的有效途径,为军队指挥人才培养提供合理建议。     

机房漏水检测与精确定位装置研究

机房漏水是危及精密信息设备长期稳定可靠运行的重大安全隐患。为了解决传统定位装置难以实现漏水点精确定位的问题,从传感电缆的检漏原理出发,利用分压补偿原理,通过STEP7软件编程,设计了一个结合自检、漏水检测和漏水定位3种功能的机房漏水检测与定位装置。在此基础上搭建了实验系统,经测试实验,结果表明短距离定位精度可以达到1．70％,从而证实了该装置检测的有效性和定位的精确性。     

The interactive fixed charge linear programming problem

In many decision-making situations, each activity that can be undertaken may have associated with it both a fixed and a variable cost. Recently, we have encountered serveral practical problems in which the fixed cost of undertaking an activity depends upon which other activities are also undertaken. To our knowledge, no existing optimization model can accomodate such a fixed cost structure. To do so, we have therefore developed a new model called the interactive fixed charge linear programming problem (IFCLP). In this paper we present and motivate problem (IFCLP), study some of its characteristics, and present a finite branch and bound algorithm for solving it. We also discuss the main properties of this algorithm.