潜艇线式巡逻的最佳对策研究

本文先用面积法求出线式巡逻潜艇发现目标的概率,然后对潜艇发现目标距离作了分析。在此基础上,建立了潜艇线式巡逻的矩阵对策模型,并用计算机对此模型进行求解,得到了潜艇线式巡逻的最佳对策。最后,对最佳对策作了讨论。本文建立的矩阵对策模型和求得的结果以及求解方法可为组织潜艇进行线式巡逻提供决策的科学依据。     

On the optimal detection of an underwater intruder in a channel using unmanned underwater vehicles

Given a number of patrollers that are required to detect an intruder in a channel, the channel patrol problem consists of determining the periodic trajectories that the patrollers must trace out so as to maximized the probability of detection of the intruder. We formulate this problem as an optimal control problem. We assume that the patrollers' sensors are imperfect and that their motions are subject to turn‐rate constraints, and that the intruder travels straight down a channel with constant speed. Using discretization of time and space, we approximate the optimal control problem with a large‐scale nonlinear programming problem which we solve to obtain an approximately stationary solution and a corresponding optimized trajectory for each patroller. In numerical tests for one, two, and three underwater patrollers, an underwater intruder, different trajectory constraints, several intruder speeds and other specific parameter choices, we obtain new insight—not easily obtained using simply geometric calculations—into efficient patrol trajectory design under certain conditions for multiple patrollers in a narrow channel where interaction between the patrollers is unavoidable due to their limited turn rate.© 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

基于巡逻历史与道路优先级的武警巡逻策略

针对武警巡逻车辆配置问题,引入了Dijkstra最短路径算法、K—means聚类算法以及计算几何的相关理论,建立了一套警车巡逻模型,并提出了评价巡逻效果的量化评价标准。采用Dijkstra与K—means算法解决了静态警车配置问题;针对警车动态巡逻方案的设计,提出了基于巡逻历史与道路优先级的道路概率选择算法,并给出了不同情况下的警车配置以及巡逻方案。通过MATLAB仿真实验,证明了算法及模型的先进性和实用性。     

基于MAXSIM平台的巡逻战法仿真建模

MAXSIM平台具有良好的二次开发性，通过MAXSIM平台进行战法研究将更好地满足战术战役级的军事仿真需求。目前MAXSIM平台中巡逻战法只具备发现报告对方目标及返港能力、未能列出不同巡逻战法，通过行为编辑器（ BE）编写常用的巡逻战法，完善了MAXSIM平台的行为知识库（ BKB），使水面舰艇具备发现敌方目标后进行追逐、攻击的能力，并提出根据Bezier曲线算法对目标航行轨迹进行预判的追逐方式，对进一步研究巡逻战法的应用具有借鉴意义。     

固定翼反潜巡逻机及其作战效能分析

固定翼反潜巡逻机作为战役、战术反潜兵力,在现代海上军事斗争中发挥着极其重要的作用.首先研究了固定翼反潜巡逻机的系统构成、应召反潜的作战过程和特点,全面分析了影响固定翼反潜巡逻机作战效能的各因素,并在此基础上给出了固定翼反潜巡逻机的作战效能分析体系,提出了固定翼反潜巡逻机不同攻潜武器下的效能评估方法,最后通过仿真分析验证了方法的合理性与可行性.     

远海护航行动中舰载直升机巡逻警戒空域的设置

针对远海伴随护航过程中舰载直升机巡逻警戒空域设置问题，在分析影响舰载直升机巡逻警戒空域设置因素及确定舰载直升机巡逻警戒方式的基础上，结合被护船只的数量和队形，从舰载直升机有效震慑海盗，确保被护船队安全的要求出发，构建了舰载直升机巡逻警戒空域范围的计算模型，对舰载直升机远海伴随护航行动中巡逻警戒空域的设置问题进行了量化研究，所得结论可为舰载直升机巡逻警戒空域的优化设置提供理论指导和使用参考。     

An inspection game: Taking account of fulfillment probabilities of players' aims

This paper deals with an inspection game of customs and a smuggler. The customs can take two options of assigning a patrol or not. The smuggler has two strategies of shipping its cargo of contraband or not. Two players have several opportunities to take actions during a limited number of days. When both players do, there are some possibilities that the customs captures the smuggler and, simultaneously, the smuggler possibly makes a success of the smuggling. If the smuggler is captured or there remain no days for playing the game, the game ends. In this paper, we formulate the problem into a multi‐stage two‐person zero‐sum stochastic game and investigate some characteristics of the equilibrium solution, some of which are given in a closed form in a special case. There have been some studies so far on the inspection game. However, some consider the case that the smuggler has only one opportunity of smuggling or the perfect‐capture case that the customs can certainly arrest the smuggler on patrol, and others think of a recursive game without the probabilities of fulfilling the players' purposes. In this paper, we consider the inspection game taking account of the fulfillment probabilities of the players' aims. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006     

Communications intelligence and the battle for convoy OG 71, 15–23 August 1941

In 1941, the British instituted a comprehensive system of convoys in the Atlantic. One of the first convoys, OG 71, while sailing between Britain and Gibraltar, was shadowed by German aircraft and attacked by U‐boats. In the ensuing August battle, while no U‐boats were sunk, the British lost, out of a convoy consisting of 22 vessels, two escorts and eight merchant ships. The German victory was not complete owing to the inability of the German aircraft and U‐boats to cooperate successfully as well as the failure of the U‐boats to fight the battle effectively and aggressively. The British also made many mistakes during the defence of Convoy OG 71. The surface escorts made many errors of tactics; as for the British aircraft, owing to an inability to cooperate with the surface forces, they became almost totally ineffective. One bright spot for the British during the battle, however, was communications intelligence. The battle saw the first use of high frequency direction finders and on several occasions skillful use was made of information obtained from enemy radio transmissions. In fact important lessons were learned by the British from such use of communications intelligence which would pave the way for a more effective implementation of such information in future convoy battles.     

反潜巡逻机双机协同鱼雷攻潜作战仿真研究

反潜巡逻机双机协同鱼雷攻潜,是航空反潜作战的重要样式之一。根据巡逻机的技战术性能,首先研究了巡逻机双机协同鱼雷攻击方法中的投雷数量、投雷阵位和投雷时间间隔等问题;然后,结合反潜作战过程,给出投雷参数解算方法;最后,以命中概率为双机协同鱼雷攻潜作战效能的评估指标进行仿真计算,并对仿真结果进行了分析,为作战运用提供参考依据。     

未来近海防御对防空导弹巡逻艇的需求

从现代空袭兵器的性能和战术运用特点出发,根据海军基地及沿海地区对空防御的需求,分析了发展防空导弹巡逻艇的必要性和重要性,并简要分析说明了防空导弹巡逻艇的性能和战术运用。     

A two-echelon multi-station inventory model for navy applications

The two inventory echelons under consideration are the depot, D, and k tender ships E₁, …, E_k. The tender ships supply the demand for certain parts of operational boats (the customers). The statistical model assumes that the total monthly demands at the k tenders are stationary independent Poisson random variables, with unknown means λ₁, …, λ_k. The stock levels on the tenders, at the heginning of each month, can be adjusted either by ordering more units from the depot, or by shipping bach to the depot an excess stock. There is no traffic of stock between tenders which is not via the depot. The lead time from the depot to the tenders is at most 1 month. The lead time for orders of the depot from the manufacturer is L months. The loss function due to erroneous decision js comprised of linear functions of the extra monthly stocks, and linear functions of shortages at the tenders and at the depot over the N months. A Bayes sequential decision process is set up for the optimal adjustment levels and orders of the two echelons. The Dynamic Programming recursive functions are given for a planning horizon of N months.     

Samudra: India’s convoluted path to undersea nuclear weapons

ABSTRACT

India is advancing slowly toward operationalizing its nuclear triad. Its first nuclear-propelled ballistic-missile submarine (SSBN), the INS Arihant, conducted its maiden deterrent patrol in November 2018. However, doubts exist around the capability of India’s SSBN, the effectiveness of its command and control, and its effects on regional stability in South Asia. This article examines the history and future trajectory of India’s sea-based nuclear forces and describes how India seeks to maintain robust command and control over its undersea nuclear weapons.     

风对反潜巡逻机应召搜索延迟时间的影响研究

为了定量分析风对反潜巡逻机应召搜索延迟时间的影响，根据飞行气象学中风对飞行的影响描述以及实际需求，建立了反潜巡逻机飞往潜艇初始概略位置的航路模型。研究结果证明了模型的正确性，并通过仿真分析了反潜巡逻机的航速和航向、风速和风向的变化对延迟时间的影响。结果表明风对延迟时间的影响是不能忽略的，为反潜巡逻机航路的优化、应召搜索效能的提高提供了决策依据。     

潜艇跟随突破水面舰艇巡逻线方法

潜艇突破水面舰艇巡逻线是潜艇作战中的一个传统问题,也是潜艇能否顺利实施战斗航渡的关键。传统的突破方法时间长、考虑敌方对抗因素少、实用性不强。针对在对抗条件下,难以或没有时间侦察目标巡逻线样式和兵力配置时,提出一种通过概略估算跟随敌舰进行突破的方法。     

外军无人水面艇发展现状与趋势

文章介绍了美、以等国军用无人水面艇的发展现状,探讨了无人水面艇的典型作战应用,在此基础之上分析了外军无人水面艇的发展特点和趋势。     

风对反潜巡逻机应召搜索延迟时间的影响研究*

为了定量分析风对反潜巡逻机应召搜索延迟时间的影响，根据飞行气象学中风对飞行的影响描述以及实际需求，建立了反潜巡逻机飞往潜艇初始概略位置的航路模型。研究结果证明了模型的正确性，并通过仿真分析了反潜巡逻机的航速和航向、风速和风向的变化对延迟时间的影响。结果表明风对延迟时间的影响是不能忽略的，为反潜巡逻机航路的优化、应召搜索效能的提高提供了决策依据。     

Optimal patrol to uncover threats in time when detection is imperfect

Consider a patrol problem, where a patroller traverses a graph through edges to detect potential attacks at nodes. An attack takes a random amount of time to complete. The patroller takes one time unit to move to and inspect an adjacent node, and will detect an ongoing attack with some probability. If an attack completes before it is detected, a cost is incurred. The attack time distribution, the cost due to a successful attack, and the detection probability all depend on the attack node. The patroller seeks a patrol policy that minimizes the expected cost incurred when, and if, an attack eventually happens. We consider two cases. A random attacker chooses where to attack according to predetermined probabilities, while a strategic attacker chooses where to attack to incur the maximal expected cost. In each case, computing the optimal solution, although possible, quickly becomes intractable for problems of practical sizes. Our main contribution is to develop efficient index policies—based on Lagrangian relaxation methodology, and also on approximate dynamic programming—which typically achieve within 1% of optimality with computation time orders of magnitude less than what is required to compute the optimal policy for problems of practical sizes. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 61: 557–576, 2014     

水面舰艇编队巡逻搜索时的组织与战术计算

在现代海上作战中,潜艇是打击目标的重要兵力之一,因而反潜作战更是现代海战的重要样式之一。主要研究了巡逻搜索的各种方法的使用条件,在对四种不同的巡逻搜索方法进行了相关战术计算的基础上,给出了水面舰艇编队进行巡逻搜索时的组织方法。对在巡逻搜索中水面舰艇编队组织和指挥具有一定的借鉴作用。     

航母编队远程防空作战预警机巡逻区域大小设置

针对航母编队远程防空作战提供了一种预警机巡逻区域大小设置的优化方法。通过对航母编队防空区域划分,提出了大小设置的基本要求。以预警机平飞长度、转弯半径和巡逻速度作为影响因素,以目标发现概率、覆盖率和目标发现距离作为评价指标对试验结果进行直观分析,得到对评价指标影响最显著的因素为平飞长度,进而采用正交设计、变步长搜索迭代的方法得到巡逻空域大小的最优布置方案。