Interception probability simulation and analysis of salvo of two electromagnetic coil launched anti-torpedo torpedoes

Electromagnetic coil launch is an important branch of electromagnetic launch (EML) technology, which is suitable for launching anti-torpedo torpedo (ATT). This paper focuses on the EML parameters and the interception probability of the EML two ATTs salvo. Based on the launching model of a multi-stage coil launcher, the trajectory model of the ATT and the attacking torpedo, a calculation method for the EML two ATTs salvo parameters is proposed, with the conditions of capture and interception given reasonably. An adaptive particle swarm optimization (APSO) algorithm is proposed to calculate the optimal launching parameters, by designing the adaptive inertia weight and time-varying study factors. According to the analysis of the simulation with Monte Carlo method, EML will improve the interception probability effectively, and the interception probability is affected by the launching range. The results demonstrate good performance of the proposed APSO in calculating EML parameters for the two ATTs salvo in certain combat situation. Implications of these results are particular regarding the command and decision in the anti-torpedo combat.     

定时拦截在轨拦截器机动轨道设计与优化

在满足对目标卫星在指定时间进行拦截的要求下,考虑拦截器变轨能量消耗最省,提出了基于定时拦截的在轨机动拦截轨道选择与优化方法。该方法能够迅速设计和优化出最优在轨机动拦截轨道、变轨点位置和变轨所需的能量。仿真结果表明,模型准确、有效,能够满足作战要求。     

基于排队论的防空导弹群作战效能研究

结合防空导弹群防空战斗的特点,利用可列状态生灭过程的排队论方法,研究了防空导弹群作战效能,建立了数学模型,分析了导弹群防空武器系统对目标平均击毁概率的计算方法,并通过引入拦截适宜性因子对理想条件下的排队模型进行了修正,为类似问题的研究提供了一种参考。     

无线传感器网络中多传感器动态自适应调度算法

无线传感器网络中,目标跟踪往往通过节点之间的协作完成。在无迹变换卡尔曼滤波基础上,提出一种多传感器动态自适应调度算法进行目标跟踪。该方法根据预测跟踪精度来确定采样间隔,然后基于特定的检测概率,为下一时刻选择一组传感器,形成一个临时工作组,并指定某一个传感器作为中心节点进行数据融合。仿真结果证明了该算法能有效提高跟踪精度和可靠性。     

The prediction formula and a risk-based sensor scheduling method in target detection with guiding information

Sensor scheduling is used to improve the sensing performance in the estimation of targets' states. However, few papers are on the sensor scheduling for target detection with guiding information. This letter can remedy this deficiency. A risk-based target detection method with guiding information is provided firstly, based on which, the sensor scheduling approach is aiming at reducing the risk and uncertainty in target detection, namely risk-based sensor scheduling method. What should be stressed is that the Prediction Formula in sensor scheduling is proposed. Lastly, some examples are conducted to stress the effectiveness of this proposed method.     

A method to determine the shell layout scheme for equipment battlefield damage tests under artillery fire

In this paper,a new method for determining the shell layout scheme is proposed,which can make the equipment damage data by the battlefield damage test resemble as close as possible the actual combat data.This method is based on the analysis of the impact point distribution and effective damage area of equipment.In order to obtain the position of the impact points,an impact point distribution model under artillery fire was established.Similarly,in order to obtain the effective damage area of equipment,the concepts of generalized damage area and task-based equipment functional damage probability were demonstrated,and the corresponding calculation model was established.Through case analysis,the shell layout scheme was effectively obtained,verifying the correctness of the proposed method.     

基于风险控制的装备供应链网络设计模型

针对风险管理中的装备供应链正向（供应）网络设计问题，在对装备供应链风险和成本进行量化分析的基础上，综合考虑风险和成本2方面因素，建立了基于风险控制的装备供应链网络设计优化模型。并设计了遗传算法对模型进行求解，给出在指定风险水平下最优设计方案与总成本。最后通过实例分析和计算，结果表明，该优化模型合理、有效、可行。     

A non-myopic scheduling method of radar sensors for maneuvering target tracking and radiation control

In decades, the battlefield environment is becoming more and more complex with plenty of electronic equipments. Thus, in order to improve the survivability of radar sensors and satisfy the requirement of maneuvering target tracking with a low probability of intercept, a non-myopic scheduling is proposed to minimize the radiation cost with tracking accuracy constraint. At first, the scheduling problem is formulated as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). Then the tracking accuracy and radiation cost over the future finite time horizon are predicted by the posterior carmér-rao lower bound (PCRLB) and the hidden Markov model filter, respectively. Finally, the proposed scheduling is implemented efficiently by utilizing the branch and bound (B&B) pruning algorithm. Simulation results show that the performance of maneuvering target tracking was improved by the improved interacting multiple model (IMM), and the scheduler time and maximum memory consumption were significant reduced by the present B&B pruning algorithm without losing the optimal solution.     

基于跟踪精度控制的多传感器管理方法

针对地面机动目标跟踪过程中的多传感器管理问题展开了研究，设计了一种基于跟踪精度控制的多传感器多目标分配方法。首先，在考虑目标与目标之间、目标与传感器之间和传感器与传感器之间等的多种约束条件下运用基于协方差控制的思想建立了多传感器多目标分配问题的优化模型；接着将等价伪量测的异步融合算法与IMM算法结合，计算各目标在不同融合周期的跟踪精度估计值；最后，以目标的跟踪精度需求为出发点，结合蚁群算法的思想，设计了一种求解所建立的多传感器多目标分配问题的优化模型的算法。仿真结果表明：该管理方法能在确保跟踪精度需求的前提下，根据对各目标跟踪任务的重要程度，合理地调度传感器资源。     

临近空间传感器分布式组网研究

研究了临近空间分布式传感器网联合发现目标概率,探讨了区域警戒传感器网中部署传感器数目与该网总发现概率等的关系,提出了3种特殊的分布式网络传感器区域的布防模式,并建立了定量评价传感器网性能指标的数学模型。模型的建立为定量评估传感器组网系统效能奠定了理论基础,也为分布式传感器网络系统的部署优化、传感器的选配等提供决策依据。     

空战拦射攻击自主优化瞄准控制方法

为了解决空战自主拦射攻击问题,提出了一种自主优化瞄准控制方法。首先描述了自主拦射攻击需要解决的问题;然后给出了基本解决思路并推演出瞄准偏差方程;接着创建了自寻优瞄准控制模型并设计了瞄准控制过程;最后通过仿真实验进行了与比例导引控制方法的对比测试和鲁棒性测试,结果表明自主优化瞄准控制法对于解决自主拦射攻击问题非常有效。     

电传操纵系统可靠性分析及飞行安全评估

分析了电传操纵系统可靠性,介绍了可靠性设计的工程方法.建立了飞行员排除故障的数学模型,提出了确定驾驶员排除飞行危险的条件概率的两种方法;在研究人-机闭环系统基础之上,建立了基于马尔可夫链的飞行安全评估模型,提出了由于飞行控制系统故障引起飞行危险的安全评估计算方法.最后以横向通道传感器故障为例对某型飞机进行安全评估.     

基于攻击树的网络安全事件发生概率评估

为了提高网络安全风险概率预测的准确性,采用攻击树模型作为网络安全事件的描述模型,改进了攻击结点的定义,提出了网络安全事件发生概率的推算方法和攻击路径的分析方法,利用贝叶斯网络方法量化攻击树模型中原子事件结点的发生概率。实例表明该方法科学、客观、有效,为制订安全防护策略提供有力支持。     

Combined proportional navigation law for interception of high-speed targets

A new proportional navigation (PN) guidance law, called combined proportional navigation (CPN), is proposed. The guidance law is designed to intercept high-speed targets, which is a common case for ballistic targets. The range of target-to-interceptor speed ratio during target interception is derived when guidance laws are applied in high-speed targets interception, and the effectiveness of negative navigation ratio in the PN-based guidance law is proven analytically in some lemmas. Based on the lemmas, the lateral acceleration command of CPN is defined, and the solution to the appearance of singularity in time-varying navigation ratio is given. The simulation results show that CPN can determine head-on engagement (as PN) or tail-chase engagement (as RPN) through initial path angle compared with PN and retro proportional navigation (RPN), and can adjust the value of navigation ratio for head-on engagement or tail-chase engagement. Therefore, the capture region of CPN is larger than that of other guidance laws using PN-based methods.     

SpaceFibre星载数据网络低延时确定性调度算法

针对超高速SpaceFibre星载网络中多源数据传输的确定性和实时性应用需求,提出一种分类细粒度低延时确定性调度算法。该算法基于差异化调度策略的思想,将数据流划分为三类。为实现网络资源的细粒度分配,引入扩展时隙。该算法采用无冲突均匀调度方法,降低了数据包的平均排队延时。为适应有效载荷组网的航天应用场景,该算法兼顾网络拓扑结构生成调度方案。为验证算法有效性,在OPNET仿真平台下利用自定义建模技术搭建网络仿真模型。仿真结果表明:相比优先权调度和无冲突连续调度机制,该算法实现了时间敏感数据流的确定性传输;随着时隙数目的增加,网络的延时性能和抗抖动性能显著提升,吞吐量性能得到保证;该算法具有一定的航天工程实用价值。     

基于RCS的三维低可探测性轨迹优化方法

针对基于雷达散射截面(RCS)规避雷达威胁的飞行轨迹优化问题,提出了低可探测性三维轨迹优化的求解方法.通过B样条拟合构建连续可微的RCS数据模型,结合三维飞行动力学模型,建立规避雷达威胁下的飞行运动控制模型.将轨迹优化问题描述成为最优控制问题,其中飞行姿态控制、轨迹约束、边界条件作为约束条件,以降低雷达探测概率和减少飞行时间为目标函数.运用高斯伪谱法( GPM)将连续的最优控制问题转换为离散的非线性规划问题进行求解.仿真结果证明本文方法实现了求解单基地雷达和双基地雷达探测环境中低可探测性三维轨迹优化问题,有效降低了飞行过程中的雷达探测概率和暴露时间.     

Establishment,simulation and verification of firepower safety control model

On a narrow warship platform, the coordinated use of shipborne weapon systems may cause firepower conflicts, which seriously endangers the ship safety. Meanwhile, with directed-energy weapons mounted on ships, firepower conflicts between weapons become a “high probability event”. Aiming at the problem of firepower safety control, based on the research about the collision probability model of air crafts and space targets and according to the cone of fire model of conventional weapons and directed-energy weapons, this paper solved the firepower conflict probabilities between conventional weapons as well as between conventional weapons and directed-energy weapons respectively using the methods of probability theory, and established the firepower safety control model. Then the calculation of firepower conflict probability was carried out using the dimensionality reduction method based on the equivalent conversion of polar coordinates and the power series method based on Laplace transform. The simulation results revealed that the proposed model and calculation methods are effective and reliable, which can provide theoretical basis and technical support for resolution of firepower conflicts between weapons.     

Designing acceptance sampling schemes for life testing with mixed censoring

Mixed censoring is useful extension of Type I and Type II censoring and combines some advantages of both types of censoring. This paper proposes a general Bayesian framework for designing a variable acceptance sampling scheme with mixed censoring. A general loss function which includes the sampling cost, the time‐consuming cost, the salvage value, and the decision loss is employed to determine the Bayes risk and the corresponding optimal sampling plan. An explicit expression of the Bayes risk is derived. The new model can easily be adapted to create life testing models for different distributions. Specifically, two commonly used distributions including the exponential distribution and the Weibull distribution are considered with a special decision loss function. We demonstrate that the proposed model is superior to models with Type I or Type II censoring. Numerical examples are reported to illustrate the effectiveness of the method proposed. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

弹道导弹防御中拦截弹最优分层配置

多层弹道导弹防御系统在助推段、飞行中段或再入段不同阶段实施拦截,可有效提高系统拦截概率,不同拦截阶段存在拦截弹最优配比问题。为了解决拦截弹道导弹过程中的最优分层配置的问题,本文分别以单层、双层、三层这三种拦截系统为例,通过公式演算和计算机仿真,得出了分段拦截弹道导弹时、不同拦截阶段的拦截弹之间的数量比与整体拦截成功率之间的关系;并提出了整体拦截成功率的概念。经仿真表明,在整体拦截成功率给定的情况下,使用本文所得出的不同拦截段之间所需拦截弹数目之间的最优比,可以最大限度地降低弹道导弹的拦截成本。     

A forward network simplex algorithm for solving multiperiod network flow problems

An optimization model which is frequently used to assist decision makers in the areas of resource scheduling, planning, and distribution is the minimum cost multiperiod network flow problem. This model describes network structure decision-making problems over time. Such problems arise in the areas of production/distribution systems, economic planning, communication systems, material handling systems, traffic systems, railway systems, building evacuation systems, energy systems, as well as in many others. Although existing network solution techniques are efficient, there are still limitations to the size of problems that can be solved. To date, only a few researchers have taken the multiperiod structure into consideration in devising efficient solution methods. Standard network codes are usually used because of their availability and perceived efficiency. In this paper we discuss the development, implementation, and computational testing of a new technique, the forward network simplex method, for solving linear, minimum cost, multiperiod network flow problems. The forward network simplex method is a forward algorithm which exploits the natural decomposition of multiperiod network problems by limiting its pivoting activity. A forward algorithm is an approach to solving dynamic problems by solving successively longer finite subproblems, terminating when a stopping rule can be invoked or a decision horizon found. Such procedures are available for a large number of special structure models. Here we describe the specialization of the forward simplex method of Aronson, Morton, and Thompson to solving multiperiod network network flow problems. Computational results indicate that both the solution time and pivot count are linear in the number of periods. For standard network optimization codes, which do not exploit the multiperiod structure, the pivot count is linear in the number of periods; however, the solution time is quadratic.