雷达侦察效能对防空兵群抗击效率的影响评估

从信息化条件下防空作战的实际需要出发,描述了搜索雷达与火控雷达的侦察效能对群抗击效率影响的基本特点,运用概率论和防空兵射击指挥理论,建立了防空兵群分散指挥和集中指挥时,搜索与火控雷达发现目标概率对群抗击效率影响的数学模型,结合实例计算分析了选择射击指挥方式时搜索雷达发现目标概率的临界值。     

防空兵群射击指挥方式及其优化问题

从防空兵作战指挥的实际需求出发,利用概率论和防空作战运筹理论,描述了集中、分散、混合和平行等射击指挥方式的概念、特点及其相互关系,论述了射击指挥方式定量分析的基本方法、主要依据和指标,建立了基于群抗击效率的评估模型,在对多种射击指挥方式进行定量比较的基础上,揭示了射击指挥中具有普遍意义的、潜在的实用规则.     

防空兵群动态防空抗击效率评估模型研究

结合未来陆军机动作战实际,研究了集中射击指挥条件下,防空兵群动态防空抗击效率的评估方法。提出了目标可射击概率应依据火力单位射程选用不同模型评估的观点,探讨了火力单位转移、导弹(弹药)储备和群指挥所状态等因素对群抗击效率的影响及其评估模型。在此基础上,指出了所建模型的适用范围和需要进一步解决的问题。     

电子干扰对防空群射击指挥决策的影响分析

描述了电子干扰对防空群射击指挥决策的影响,建立了通信阻塞、假目标和干扰机与防空群抗击率之间的数学关系,给出了几点有益的结论。     

舰空导弹模糊加权射击效能评估模型

为了给舰艇防空作战指挥决策提供依据,根据舰空导弹防空作战的特点,借鉴传统的作战效能评估方法,提出了用模型加权射击效能评估的方法来进行舰空导弹防空作战效能评估,建立了舰空导弹模型加权射击效能评估模型,并通过算例说明了作战效能评估中模糊权重的确定方法.提出的方法和建立的模型可作为构建舰艇防空作战指挥决策模型的基础.     

防空兵群射击指挥能力的模糊综合评价方法

射击指挥是防空兵作战指挥的重要组成部分,防空兵群的射击指挥能力,严重影响着整个防空兵群的作战能力。引入模糊评判模型,在分析评价射击指挥能力的各个指标的基础上,对防空兵群的射击指挥能力作出综合评价。     

一体化联合防空作战指挥效率评估研究

从未来防空作战的实际需求出发,利用概率论、军事运筹理论和一体化联合作战理论,采用定性和定量相结合的方法,分析了一体化联合防空作战指挥的主要特点和效率指标,建立了一体化联合防空体系的作战效率评估模型,以及基于越级指挥、按级指挥和实际指挥方式的作战指挥效率评估模型,用实例说明了作战指挥效率评估方法的应用.     

干扰条件下地空导弹群射击指控效能评估模型

为定量评估地空导弹群射击指挥控制效能,在分析地空导弹指挥控制过程的基础上,运用解析法,首先建立了情报指挥通信干扰条件下目标杀伤概率计算模型,然后分别给出了假目标干扰和复合干扰时杀伤概率的计算方法,最后通过算例分析验证了模型的可行性和有效性,得出了具有实用价值的结论。仿真实验结果表明,指示射击的火力单元数量和指挥方式对射击效果有着显著影响。     

末制导炮弹对典型集群目标射击效率评定模型

末制导炮弹对集群目标射击时可以不用改变射击诸元,提高了炮兵作战效率。以幅员不大的典型集群目标为例,建立了不用改变射击诸元情况下的末制导炮弹对典型集群目标射击效率的评定模型,并应用模型进行实例计算,分析了影响射击效率的影响因素,对射击指挥员实施正确的指挥决策和改进射击方法具有重要的参考价值。     

高炮群射击能力评估

为提高高炮群射击能力,根据高炮群射击能力的影响因素,针对评判高炮群射击能力大小的三项指标:射击密度、射击时间、毁歼概率,构建了射击能力计算的相关模型,并进行了实例计算与分析,为评估高炮群射击能力提供了一种新的思路和方法。该方法较好地解决了在要地防空作战中高炮群射击能力的评估问题。     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

Reviews

Douglas S. Derrer, We Are All the Target: A Handbook of Terrorism Avoidance and Hostage Survival. Annapolis, MD: US Naval Institute Press, 1992. Pp. x+135, notes, index. $14.95. ISBN 01–55750–150–5

Ian Knight, Zulu: Isandlwana and Rorke's Drift, 22–23 January 1879. London: Windrow & Greene, 1992. Pp.136, 150 illus., incl 8 colour plates, maps, biblio. £35. ISBN 1–872004–23–7

Ian Knight, By the Orders of the Great White Queen: Campaigning in Zululand through the Eyes of the British Soldiers, 1879. London: Greenhill Books and Novato: Presidio Press, 1992. Pp. 272, 17 illus., 1 map. £18.95. ISBN 1–85367–122–3

Manfried Rauchensteiner and Erwin A. Schmidl (eds.), Formen des Krieges: vom Mittelalter zum ‘Low‐intensity’ Conflict’. Graz : Verlag Styria, 1991. Pp.208. DM35. ISBN 3–22–12139–7

Harold J. Kearsley, Maritime Power and the Twenty‐First Century. Dartmouth: Dartmouth Publishing Company, Limited, 1992. Pp.xv + 203, 13 diagrams, index. £32.50. ISBN 1–85521–288–9     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Cyber sheiks and grassroots jihadis: the war in Syria and the devolution of the Bosnian Salafi communities

ABSTRACT

What was the scope of the Bosnian jihadi participation in the war in Syria? Did the Bosnian volunteers tend to join one particular faction? Why did the Bosnian youngsters decide to join the holy war in the Levant? Was this an organized and hierarchical process or was this a grassroots movement? Last, were all the Salafis in Bosnia supportive of this dynamic or did this process cause internal frictions? These are some of the questions that this research will try to answer.