一类搜索型多对二随机格斗的获胜概率

研究搜索型多对二随机格斗战斗模型。假设格斗开始时A方有m件武器,B方有2件武器,B方处于隐蔽状态,格斗开始后B方可以直接对A方进行射击,A方需先搜索到B方后才能进行射击。双方各为同类武器,都是集火射击,所有开火都是独立的,每件武器开火射击直到毁伤对方才重新射击下一个目标。对搜索时间和毁伤间隔时间都服从一般分布的随机格斗模型,通过分析各状态的特征,利用状态概率分析方法和向后递归时间方法建立状态方程,求出了格斗处在各个状态的概率,并得到双方的获胜概率计算公式。     

The stochastic duel with time-dependent hit probabilities

The fundamental stochastic duel considers two opponents who fire at each other at either random continuous or fixed-time intervals with a constant hit probability on each round fired. Each starts with an unloaded weapon, unlimited ammunition, and unlimited time. The first to hit wins. In this article we extend the theory to the case where hit probabilities are functions of the time since the duel began. First, the marksman firing at a passive target is considered and the characteristic function of the time to a hit is developed. Then, the probability of a given side winning the duel is derived. General solutions for a wide class of hit probability functions are derived. Specific examples of both the marksman and the duel problem are given.     

基于0-1规划的弹种决策与发射时序优化

对于身管发射武器系统,同一发射单元使用不同弹种完成作战任务时,需要确立合适的弹种决策与最佳的发射时机.提出用O-1变量来描述弹种决策变量.通过时弹种发射机制及武器系统控制特点进行分析,构造多种0-1变量用以描述武器系统作战时序之间的约束关系,建立了弹种发射时序的0-1规划模型,并用LINGO软件实现了0-1规划的求解.给出了典型应用实例,进行了仿真计算,结果表明,该方法简单可行.     

舰炮一维弹道修正弹对岸校射方法研究

一维弹道修正弹是近年来兵器领域新研制的一种低成本信息化弹药，目前对其校射方法尚未有成熟的标准。为此，在分析一维弹道修正弹对岸射击工作原理、计算有无控弹试射的基础上，提出舰炮武器系统使用有控一维弹道修正弹的校射新方法，并确定了校射的组数和发数。分别对使用新方法前后的射击效能进行了数值仿真，结果表明本方法能极大地提高舰炮武器系统的射击效能。所提方法对舰炮武器作战效能的提高具有较强的理论价值和一定的参考意义。     

光电型舰炮武器系统对海校射模拟训练的实现

针对目前光电型舰炮武器系统模拟训练设备的特点,介绍了以光电跟踪仪为传感器的舰炮武器系统对海校射及其模拟的基本原理,以及主要技术实现和工作过程,并列举了其在武器射击操作模拟训练等方面的应用。该原理很好的提高了光电型舰炮武器系统的射击精度,同时也为系统的日常维护和检查提供了多方面的帮助。     

POTENTIAL PROLIFERATION POINTERS FROM THE PAST: Lessons from the British Nuclear Weapons Program, 1952–69

Becoming a nuclear weapon state and sustaining a militarily credible nuclear weapons capability is far from trivial, especially for medium powers. Such a capability is demonstrated by much more than firing a first test or acquiring significant quantities of fissile material; capability is indicated by factors including weaponization, delivery of weapons, reliability and effectiveness of weapons and their delivery systems, fissile material availability, and nuclear and non-nuclear testing. Files in the British National Archives shed considerable light on the problems faced by the nuclear weapon program of the United Kingdom from 1952 through the late 1960s. The question is whether this experience is unique or if it instead offers insights into the potential problems faced by, or facing, other medium or aspiring nuclear weapon states. The proliferation-related topics highlighted include: fissile material production, nuclear testing, the first weapon, weapon delivery rates, non-nuclear testing, delivery platform problems, and long-term maintenance and capability sustainability. Further research could provide clearer insights.     

The two-on-one stochastic duel

The one-on-one stochastic duel is extended to the general two-on-one duel for the first time. The state equations, win probabilities, mean value, and variance functions are derived. The case where one side has Erlang (2) firing times and the other is negative exponential is compared with the corresponding “Stochastic Lanchester” and Lanchester models to demonstrate their nonequivalence.     

Use of discounted force arrivals in static force comparisons

In traditional static comparisons of two opposing forces, weapons systems on each side are added together after weighting them according to a weapon scoring system. The scoring system does not reflect the availability times of the weapon systems in a perceived conflict. In this paper it is suggested how availability times can be incorporated by introducing the net present value of force arrival patterns. The concept is extended to include the case where uncertainty concerning warning time is reflected through a probability distribution for the time of outbreak of hostilities.     

基于二人有限零和对策的防空兵火力分配方法

为了优化防空作战过程中火力分配问题,使射击达到最佳效果,运用对策论、线性规划等理论方法,采用对策矩阵建立了防空火力分配的线性规划模型,并通过计算示例和计算机仿真初步预测了敌方的空袭兵器使用情况和我方相应的兵力分配对策。该模型建立的防空火力分配方法较好地满足了要地防空装备的战术应用问题,对提高作战效能具有一定的参考价值。     

Stochastic duels with nonrepairable weapons

This paper examines the effect of limitation, regarding weapons that are likely to fail during the period of deployment, on the final outcome in a stochastic duel model. Inter-firing times as well as inter-failure times have been assumed to be exponentially distributed.     

舰载火箭子母弹最优火力分配

舰载火箭子母弹对岸上目标实施火力压制射击时,火力分配方式直接影响毁伤效果和火力支援任务的完成.针对舰载火箭子母弹的射击特点,首先分析了海上射击误差,然后探讨了集群目标的简化处理方法,最后给出了最优火力分配时表尺差计算公式,并进行了举例分析.利用最优火力分配方法来计算舰载火箭子母弹效力射表尺差,避免了指挥员战场射击指挥的盲目性,可以在相同弹药消耗量情况下取得最佳射击效果,对未来舰载火箭子母弹的火力运用具有较高的现实意义.     

一种通用型舰载防空硬武器火力优化算法?

针对当前武器优化分配算法缺少通用性，难以兼顾效率和时间的问题，提出了一种通用型舰载防空硬武器火力优化算法。该算法首先提取各舰载武器能够攻击的目标集合，然后对各武器的目标集合逐一进行时间分配，并计算对目标的毁伤概率，最终完成所有武器的分配。计算表明，该算法具有很好的通用性和实时性，可适用于较大规模舰载防空硬武器的火力优化分配问题。     

Stochastic duels with multiple hits and limited ammunition supply

Ancker's stochastic duels with limited ammunition supply are extended to cases where a kill is obtained through repetitive multiple hits with two firing modes, single-shot firing and pattern firing. Examples with negative exponential firing time and geometric ammunition supply are given.     

防空导弹的新家族——反精导武器防空导弹

现代精确制导武器对敏感点目标的威胁,主要表现在高的击毁概率和多发协同攻击上,保卫点目标的反精确制导武器防空导弹必须具有多目标通道和高速率全向射击能力;必须具有高的可靠性和对精确制导武器的击爆能力,将构成防空导弹系列中的一个新家族。     

基于SD模型的弹药消耗规律研究

传统弹药消耗研究主要将重点放在微观层面对具体的弹药需求量的计算方法上,没有科学回答实际作战中弹药消耗的宏观规律和趋势。在上述计算思路的基础上,建立了系统动力学模型,对从总体上对战时双方兵力因素、武器因素以及各个作战阶段弹药消耗的规律作了有益的探索,从宏观上得出了战时弹药消耗的本质规律,对战略、战役指挥员从宏观层面整体把握弹药消耗的本质规律具有重要意义。     

激光防空武器系统作战效能研究

激光防空武器系统是一种新型的高技术多指标综合武器系统,其作战效能评估即是研究新型武器系统装备的主要依据,又是一件十分艰难的任务。依据WSEIAC提出的效能分析模型,建立了激光防空武器系统的ADC模型,对激光防空武器系统的作战效能作了研究,对其他武器的效能分析具有示范和借鉴作用。     

基于匹配度的火力分配模型

主要从一体化联合作战的角度,探讨了在综合考虑目标与武器匹配性的情况下武器-目标分配(W TA)模型的建立问题。首先,分析了目标属性与武器属性的匹配关系,例如目标与武器距离和武器射程的匹配关系、目标抗毁能力与弹药威力的匹配关系、目标反击能力与武器突防能力的匹配关系等等;然后,引入目标与武器匹配度的概念,并且给出了匹配度的计算方法,其中包括效费比系数、时间系数、侦察概率、突防概率以及摧毁杀伤概率的计算方法;最后,利用非线性规划构造了火力分配模型。     

A defense allocation problem with development costs

In this paper, the mathematical model for the allocation of resources among a general mix of percentage vulnerable and of numerically vulnerable weapon systems is presented and solved. Percentage vulnerable systems consist of mobile weapons which are difficult to locate, but relatively easy to destroy once located; numerically vulnerable systems comprise easily located fixed base weapons which are difficult to destroy. The distinguishing feature of this analysis is the inclusion of development costs. The theory of max-min is extended as necessary to solve this problem. References are provided to a sequence of earlier versions of this problem.     

舰载近区防卫武器综合运用

水面舰艇近区防卫武器的作战运用研究是舰载武器作战运用研究的新课题。在分析近区防卫目标特征、武器特点、作战方法的基础上,提出近区防卫武器综合运用一般原则,基于作战时域的连续性及效果的叠加性,构建近区防卫武器使用逻辑结构,建立武器运用的对策模型,可为近区防卫武器的科学使用提供理论参考。     

光电型舰炮武器系统模拟训练仪的设计

为解决舰炮武器系统日常训练与检测问题,设计了舰炮武器系统模拟训练仪。介绍了模拟训练仪的组成、工作原理,及硬件、软件技术设计。其主要技术的应用涉及电视视频图象模拟技术、外弹道仿真及水柱坐标处理技术、距离方位法校射模拟技术及计算处理实时性技术。通过试验验证,该模拟训练仪能够很好的用于武器系统的检测和舰员的日常训练。