一类三对二随机格斗的获胜概率

随机格斗从一对一格斗模型出发,逐步向更多数量的格斗发展,研究三对二随机格斗战斗模型,假设格斗开始时A方有三件武器,B方有两件武器,所有开火都是独立的,利用状态概率分析方法和向后递归方法,给出了集火射击情况下双方获胜概率的计算公式,该公式适用于一般分布,公式中主要包括毁伤时间的密度函数和余分布函数,并对射击间隔时间服从负指数分布的情形进行了模拟分析。     

先期毁伤原则下武器单元的射击时机分配

以先期毁伤为原则,首次对武器单元的射击时机分配问题进行数学建模。提出一种使毁伤概率密度在时间上靠前分布的武器单元射击时机分配模型,在保证指定瞬时之前以期望概率毁伤目标的前提下,合理分配各武器单元的射击时机,实现对目标的尽早毁伤。根据射击时机分配模型中约束函数的单调性特点,提出一种改进的连续域蚁群算法,使算法自变量满足约束条件的"优良区域"开始搜索,采用搜索窗口平移的方法逐步寻找最好解,提高了算法的搜索速度。实例分析验证了模型和算法的有效性。     

武器毁伤概率对火力运用的影响

采用离散马尔可夫链概型 ,在符合客观实际的基本假定条件下 ,以毁伤概率为指标 ,定量分析了对抗双方武器毁伤概率的变化对火力运用的影响 ,从而提出了先敌开火时机和火力运用样式转换时机对毁伤概率的要求     

连续波强激光武器动态毁伤概率的非毁检测法

给出一种强激光武器与目标存在相对运动时的毁伤概率(动态毁伤概率)在非致毁条件下的检测方法。该方法是在已知强激光对目标的致毁时间、一次发射时间的基础上,在武器的跟瞄子系统对目标无毁的跟踪试验中,通过检测跟踪误差在射击门内外交替出现的时间间隔,给出动态毁伤概率的点估计,以及在既定置信度下,动态毁伤概率的置信区间,同时还能判断所测毁伤概率是否处于最佳状态,为进一步优化动态毁伤概率提供依据。     

基于Monte Carlo方法的一对二马尔可夫随机格斗模型

讨论了一对二马尔可夫随机格斗双方获胜概率计算问题。提出了一种新颖的一对二马尔可夫随机格斗任意对抗回合双方获胜概率的计算方法,该方法首先基于Monte Carlo仿真计算各个对抗回合中双方发射次序的概率分布,再利用全概率公式确定马尔可夫链的状态转移概率矩阵,从而克服了马尔可夫随机格斗模型往往只能提供无限对抗回合之后格斗双方获胜概率的缺点,为运用马尔可夫随机格斗研究火力运用和弹药分配提供了新途径,并用实例说明了该方法的有效性。     

一类多对二随机格斗中的最优射击策略

射击策略的选择在随机格斗中是一重要战术问题,当一方武器面临多个武器目标时,如何确定射击目标顺序的研究,显然是具有实际意义的。依据发射间隔服从负指数分布的多对一随机格斗中最优策略应满足的条件,推出求解此类多对一格斗最优策略的方法。进而研究了射击间隔服从此类分布的多对二随机格斗中处于劣势一方的射击策略选择问题,得出寻求最优射击策略的一般方法。     

基于毁伤概率的未来空域窗最优射击时机

针对未来空域窗进行瞄准点配置时,需要对目标和射弹的误差进行处理的情况,提出了利用投影对未来空域窗误差进行处理的方法,并基于该方法研究未来空域窗毁伤效能变化规律。同时,依据毁伤概率最大的原则,设计了最优射击时机计算流程。仿真实验结果表明:在一次开火时间范围内,通过该最优流程计算得到的目标毁伤概率最大,由此证明了所提方法的正确性和可行性。     

滞留时间毁伤概率及其统计特性

分析了当前陆、海、空装备在机动作战中对机动目标射击过程的共性,即在常态瞄射过程中机动目标会随机穿越有效射击域.研究表明,用传统的分析方法所得结果不能真实有效地反映出这种情况下的毁伤概率.为此,提出了目标对射击域具有随机滞留时间情况下的毁伤概率及其统计特性问题.通过机动目标随机穿越射击域时的概率特性,得到滞留时间毁伤概率及其统计特征量的数学表示和计算公式以及求解毁伤概率的近似公式.最后给出算例及相关结论.     

小口径空炸射击高炮武器系统的点射毁伤概率

分析了各子系统所引起射击诸元误差分量的相关性和重复性;假定点射中射击诸元误差呈正态分布,随机生成射击诸元误差分量;根据射击诸元误差与射击误差的关系,计算射击误差;结合空炸毁伤定律,计算点射毁伤概率;通过算例,研究了弱相关误差的相关系数与点射毁伤概率的关系.     

未来空域窗下高炮武器系统的毁伤概率

为得到更准确的高炮武器系统毁伤概率算法,将射击诸元误差进行了分解,并对射击诸元误差各分量进行了相关性和重复性分析;在上述分析的基础上,结合弱相关误差序列的生成方法,给出了毁伤概率计算的蒙特卡罗法;基于此算法,计算了高炮武器系统使用未来空域窗射击体制或集火射击体制时,对不同机动特性目标的毁伤概率;结果表明,对高机动目标进行射击时,未来空域窗射击体制相比集火射击体制更优;同时给出了根据目标机动特性选择射击体制的方法。     

The two-on-one stochastic duel

The one-on-one stochastic duel is extended to the general two-on-one duel for the first time. The state equations, win probabilities, mean value, and variance functions are derived. The case where one side has Erlang (2) firing times and the other is negative exponential is compared with the corresponding “Stochastic Lanchester” and Lanchester models to demonstrate their nonequivalence.     

Stochastic duels involving reliability

The reliability of weapons in combat has been treated by Bhashyam in the context of a stochastic duel characterized by fixed ammunition supplies. negative exponentially distributed firing times and weapon lifetimes, and a fixed number of spare weapons for each duelist. The present paper takes a different approach by starting with the fundamental duel of Ancker and Williams, characterized by unlimited ammunition and by ordinary renewal firing times, and adding to it weapon lifetimes which can be functions of time or of round position in the firing sequence. Probabilities of winning and tieing are derived and it is shown that under certain conditions the weapon lifetimes are equivalent to random time and ammunition limits.     

The stochastic duel with time-dependent hit probabilities

The fundamental stochastic duel considers two opponents who fire at each other at either random continuous or fixed-time intervals with a constant hit probability on each round fired. Each starts with an unloaded weapon, unlimited ammunition, and unlimited time. The first to hit wins. In this article we extend the theory to the case where hit probabilities are functions of the time since the duel began. First, the marksman firing at a passive target is considered and the characteristic function of the time to a hit is developed. Then, the probability of a given side winning the duel is derived. General solutions for a wide class of hit probability functions are derived. Specific examples of both the marksman and the duel problem are given.     

基于作战环的单目标毁伤概率分析

针对现代化战争的特点,基于作战环的思想,将整个作战环分成几个不同的环节进行分析,并提出了一种求解武器装备对于单目标毁伤概率的计算方法。该方法考虑了不同环节对于目标毁伤的影响,定量计算了武器装备对敌方目标的毁伤概率,既从宏观层面上考虑了武器装备的涌现性,又从底层分析了影响目标毁伤的参数。最后通过示例分析验证了方法的可行性和有效性。     

一种通用型舰载防空硬武器火力优化算法?

针对当前武器优化分配算法缺少通用性，难以兼顾效率和时间的问题，提出了一种通用型舰载防空硬武器火力优化算法。该算法首先提取各舰载武器能够攻击的目标集合，然后对各武器的目标集合逐一进行时间分配，并计算对目标的毁伤概率，最终完成所有武器的分配。计算表明，该算法具有很好的通用性和实时性，可适用于较大规模舰载防空硬武器的火力优化分配问题。     

Stochastic duels with nonrepairable weapons

This paper examines the effect of limitation, regarding weapons that are likely to fail during the period of deployment, on the final outcome in a stochastic duel model. Inter-firing times as well as inter-failure times have been assumed to be exponentially distributed.     

Stochastic duels with round-dependent hit probabilities

The effect of round dependent hit probabilities in the fundamental stochastic duel are examined. The general solution and several specific examples are derived where one side's hit probabilities are improved from round to round. For these specific cases the advantages of round to round improvement are explicitly displayed.     

一种新型的目标分配形式及算法

提出了一种新型的目标分配形式--顺序攻击目标分配形式,并以地空导弹拦截攻击机机群为研究对象,给出了均匀目标分配形式和顺序攻击目标分配形式,以及在机群无干扰武器和有干扰武器状态下,地空导弹拦截效果的算法模型.数值分析表明,顺序攻击目标分配形式有较好的攻击效果.     

India nuclear weapons: No first use or no full disclosure?

This article argues India is laying the foundation to move away from “no-first-use” (NFU) as its nuclear weapons employment policy. Since the inception of its nuclear weapons program, India has claimed NFU as the centerpiece of its nuclear strategy. But India has a history of developing foundational changes to its nuclear weapons program before such changes actually occur. For example, the infrastructure of India’s nuclear weapons program was already being created in the 1950s under the guise of civilian nuclear power. Similarly, the weaponization of India’s program, which did not officially occur until after the 1998 tests, had its genesis in far earlier decisions. A close examination of trends in India’s nuclear weapons production complex, its delivery systems, and its command and control complex all lead to the conclusion that India is laying the groundwork for more flexible employment options, up to and including first use. This article does not argue such a decision has been taken. Rather, it argues the underpinning is in place to allow for a move to more flexible options, perhaps very quickly, at some point in the future. This could occur during crisis or it could occur incrementally over time.     

伪码调相连续波引信及其抗侦察性能分析

分析了伪随机码信号的特征,介绍了伪码调相连续波引信的工作原理,在此基础上,分析了此体制下引信的抗侦察性能。根据Neyman-Pearson准则,推导出伪码调相引信的信号发现概率。最后利用窗口函数原理,建立了引信的参数截获概率模型,推导出它们的参数截获概率,从而证明了此体制下引信抗侦察性能的优越性。