一种考虑主观偏好的武器装备采购决策方法

针对只有部分权重信息且决策属性值以区间数形式给出的武器装备采购方案决策问题,提出了一种基于区间数相离度和可能度的偏差最小化决策方法,将决策者对待选方案的主观偏好融合到计算模型当中,并详细给出了该决策方法的计算步骤和算法。研究表明,该方法能够有效解决武器装备采购决策过程中的主观偏好问题,使得决策结果更为客观合理,最后通过一个示例来验证方法的可行性和有效性。     

多指标综合评估决策的一种新方法

为了解决评估决策过程中不同类型指标难以综合处理等问题,提出一种新的评估决策方法。该方法以投影技术为基础,将实数指标、区间型指标和模糊型指标综合起来,形成评估矩阵,并根据指标优劣差异对其进行规范化处理;然后通过各方案在某个指标下的评估差异值的大小确定该指标的权重,由此得出各方案在正负理想点上的投影,实现待评方案综合排序。以网络质量综合评估决策为例,对其基本原理和实施步骤进行了分析。实验结果表明:该方法是有效的,为多种类型指标综合评估决策提供了一种新思路。     

TOPSIS和灰色关联度结合的信号质量评估方法北大核心

针对弹药感应装定系统信号质量评估结果失准,受传统TOPSIS法在质量评估过程中出现欧氏距离相等,而无法实现明显区分的限制,提出将灰色关联度分析(GRA)与TOPSIS法相结合,以此来改进TOPSIS方法。该方法弥补了因指标间相关性而导致欧氏距离失效,又反映了数据曲线趋势上的相似性,是一种静态距离与动态趋势相结合的决策方法,评估结果更加合理。此外,熵权法和层次分析法(AHP)确定的组合权值兼有主客观性质,成为合理决策的前提。最后,通过在感应装定系统信号质量评估的应用验证了该方法的可行性与有效性。     

TOPSIS和灰色关联度结合的信号质量评估方法

针对弹药感应装定系统信号质量评估结果失准,受传统TOPSIS法在质量评估过程中出现欧氏距离相等,而无法实现明显区分的限制,提出将灰色关联度分析(GRA)与TOPSIS法相结合,以此来改进TOPSIS方法。该方法弥补了因指标间相关性而导致欧氏距离失效,又反映了数据曲线趋势上的相似性,是一种静态距离与动态趋势相结合的决策方法,评估结果更加合理。此外,熵权法和层次分析法(AHP)确定的组合权值兼有主客观性质,成为合理决策的前提。最后,通过在感应装定系统信号质量评估的应用验证了该方法的可行性与有效性。     

基于熵理论的战场情报评估方法

熵是度量信息有效性和可靠性的重要理论工具,分析了信息熵和条件熵,并深入研究了熵作为不确定性的度量在战场情报中的评估应用,最后举例说明了既要考虑信息的价值又要考虑其风险程度这一新的情报分析方法,使得决策过程透明化,降低了决策的风险。     

三标度法在坦克分队最优火力分配中的应用

根据坦克分队火力分配中需要考虑的因素,构建了坦克分队火力分配方案评估指标体系。在层次分析法的基础上,使用三标度法对坦克分队火力分配方案进行优选评估,有效地避免了使用传统AHP方法构建判断矩阵时权重选择的模糊性,减少决策过程中的主观臆断,同时该方法快捷方便,提高了指挥员决策的准确性和时效性。     

引导方式的代价评估

引导方式的选择是超视距舰舰导弹攻击中最重要的决策问题。它牵动到兵力的使用问题,是目前作战部队急待解决的重点课题之一。传统的评估方法往往只侧重最终的数学结果而忽视对评估过程的揭示,难以被部队指挥员接受,从而影响了数学评估在作战指挥中的应用。给出了引导方式损益评估中代价评估的方法。该方法采用表格作业方式,可帮助指挥员全面掌握决策要素,自主控制各因素的作用,符合部队指挥员对决策透明的要求。计算过程简洁,易于在部队推广使用。     

电子对抗电磁环境的矩阵对策评估方法

为提高复杂电磁环境下的作战能力,对其进行复杂度评估是必须首要解决的课题。在分析战场复杂电磁环境评估基本方法的基础上,提出了一种基于矩阵对策的战场复杂电磁环境评估方法,建立了评估的模型,并通过一个电子对抗训练的场景,合理构建了支付矩阵,验证了评估方法的有效性。该方法可以反映作战过程的动态变化,同时为作战决策提供依据,可以有效提高战场决策水平和作战训练水平。     

面向任务的装备组合方案生成与评估方法

“决策中心战”谋求通过给对手施加不确定性创造决策困境,从而获取决策优势。面向决策中心战条件下获取决策优势的需求,提出了面向任务的装备组合方案生成与评估方法,基于决策复杂度选择更具不确定性的装备组合方案。该方法包括装备组合方案生成、基于帕累托最优的装备组合方案筛选、基于决策复杂度的装备组合方案评估等步骤,仿真推演的结果验证了该方法的有效性。     

末制导雷达干扰决策的模糊评估方法研究

为了适应水面舰艇反导作战的需要 ,提出了一种评估末制导雷达干扰决策的方法。建立了导弹末制导雷达干扰决策评估模型 ,在此基础上 ,运用模糊综合评估的方法 ,对导弹末制导雷达干扰决策进行了综合评估。以干扰某型反舰导弹为例 ,对评估方法进行了试验验证。结果表明 ,该评估方法对评估末制导雷达干扰决策十分有效     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

Reviews

Douglas S. Derrer, We Are All the Target: A Handbook of Terrorism Avoidance and Hostage Survival. Annapolis, MD: US Naval Institute Press, 1992. Pp. x+135, notes, index. $14.95. ISBN 01–55750–150–5

Ian Knight, Zulu: Isandlwana and Rorke's Drift, 22–23 January 1879. London: Windrow & Greene, 1992. Pp.136, 150 illus., incl 8 colour plates, maps, biblio. £35. ISBN 1–872004–23–7

Ian Knight, By the Orders of the Great White Queen: Campaigning in Zululand through the Eyes of the British Soldiers, 1879. London: Greenhill Books and Novato: Presidio Press, 1992. Pp. 272, 17 illus., 1 map. £18.95. ISBN 1–85367–122–3

Manfried Rauchensteiner and Erwin A. Schmidl (eds.), Formen des Krieges: vom Mittelalter zum ‘Low‐intensity’ Conflict’. Graz : Verlag Styria, 1991. Pp.208. DM35. ISBN 3–22–12139–7

Harold J. Kearsley, Maritime Power and the Twenty‐First Century. Dartmouth: Dartmouth Publishing Company, Limited, 1992. Pp.xv + 203, 13 diagrams, index. £32.50. ISBN 1–85521–288–9     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Cyber sheiks and grassroots jihadis: the war in Syria and the devolution of the Bosnian Salafi communities

ABSTRACT

What was the scope of the Bosnian jihadi participation in the war in Syria? Did the Bosnian volunteers tend to join one particular faction? Why did the Bosnian youngsters decide to join the holy war in the Levant? Was this an organized and hierarchical process or was this a grassroots movement? Last, were all the Salafis in Bosnia supportive of this dynamic or did this process cause internal frictions? These are some of the questions that this research will try to answer.