基于Extendsim的指挥信息系统组织结构效能对比分析

针对指挥信息系统组织结构效能评价的静态量化分析方法存在的不足,提出了基于Extendsim的动态仿真评估方法。通过信息流程分析,建立评估指标,构建传统和基于云计算数据中心构想的指挥信息系统组织结构效能仿真评估模型,并结合实例对两种模型进行了评估分析,为指挥信息系统组织结构比较和改进进行了有益探索。     

基于时间分布函数的武警指挥速度评估模型

指挥速度是武警指战员筹划和组织指挥处置行动的基本依据,对保证指挥流程高效有序运行具有十分重要的作用.通过分析指挥流程传统认识上的不足,运用系统论对指挥流程进行更完善的描述,指出在相同工作量下,影响指挥流程的核心因素是流程运行中指挥速度的时间,运用概率统计方法将流程持续时间确定为服从Be-ta-PERT分布函数,建立了基于时间分布函数的指挥速度评估模型,详细阐述了模型的求解过程,并提出了该模型在实际中的应用策略.     

美军联合作战指挥控制系统的发展与演化

联合作战指挥控制系统是实施联合作战指挥控制的核心技术平台.介绍了美军联合作战指挥控制系统的发展历程,从军事战略、作战需求、技术水平、组织机构等多个角度剖析了其演化原因,并提出了对我军联合作战指挥控制系统发展的启示和建议.     

方位指挥在灭火救援指挥中的应用

阐述了方位指挥的概念及其在灭火救援组织指挥中的作用,分析了当前方位指挥应用方面存在的问题,并从规范灭火救援组织指挥流程角度出发,提出了加强和改进方位指挥在灭火救援组织指挥中应用的建议。     

基于结构熵的装备保障组织结构优化

针对宏观层面装备保障组织结构优化问题,在分析结构熵基本内涵的基础上,提出不同指挥与管理组合模式下的装备保障组织结构形式,基于结构熵理论对组织结构模型中的时效、质量、柔性3个关键指标进行了定量对比分析,结果表明,作战指挥与领导管理分离模式下的装备保障组织结构是一种较优的保障体制方案。     

联合作战中指挥关系的优化设计方法

从优化设计的应用领域出发,以联合作战中一定作战背景的的典型想定为基础,分析了PCANS模型中协作网和决策树的概念和定义,从PCANS模型关于组织基本元素的划分描述了组织通信协作网和指挥决策树。在仿真案例中,在这一描述的基础上对指挥关系（组织结构）的设计提出了新的方法,并通过案例分析设计了战役组织的指挥关系。     

装备保障指挥Agent框架建模

针对装备保障指挥难以用高度程式化的数学模型进行描述的问题,构建了一种装备保障指挥Agent框架模型。介绍了Agent建模方法,分析了装备保障指挥的指挥流程,并根据装备保障指挥流程和Agent的建模特点抽象出装备保障指挥Agent框架结构,对其中的各Agent内部模块进行设计,并对各Agent之间的通信模式进行了研究,设计的结构模型可为其他同类研究提供参考。     

基于网络组织有序度的指挥体系优化算法

针对信息化条件下指挥体系结构的特点,运用复杂网络理论,提出了指挥体系的优化算法,将组织有序度最大化作为目标函数,以边的关键度作为调节变量,构建了优化模型和算法,并对指挥网络进行了实例分析,对比优化前后指挥体系在平均路径、聚类系数、度分布以及网络的抗毁性等指标上变化,最后得到最优化的指挥网络。该算法对指挥流程的优化具有一定的参考价值和指导意义。     

面向部队实兵演习的作战能力多维聚合评估

针对部队实兵演习作战能力评估模型机械单一、要素不全、评估虚实数据脱节,流程上不适应导演部演习组织筹划,内容上无法区分指挥程序、指挥质量、指挥时效、战斗作风等不同评估对象的问题,提出一种体系完整、要素齐全、指标科学的多维聚合评估模型,同步设计AHP+权重+归一化的作战能力计算方法,可自动化地将不同评估对象分层加权求和、回...     

基于"网云端"的新型指挥控制系统体系结构建模

指挥控制系统是综合电子信息系统的核心,是作战效能的"倍增器"和作战指挥的"神经中枢".从"网-云-端"的结构出发,分析了新型指挥控制系统的总体架构和组成关系;通过分析美国国防部体系结构框架(DoDAF2.0),提出了基于DoDAF2.0的新型指挥控制系统体系结构建模流程;采用结构化和面向对象相结合的方法,设计了新型指挥控制系统作战视角、服务视角、能力视角以及系统视角的关键模型,为系统的具体设计与开发、系统评估与分析提供可靠的模型支持.     

基于扩张观测器的三维有限时间收敛导引律

为了保证视线角速率在弹目碰撞前收敛到零附近的较小邻域内从而达到准平行接近的状态,本文基于自抗扰控制的不确定性估计补偿思想,应用反演控制方法设计了一种考虑导弹自动驾驶仪二阶动态特性和目标机动的三维有限时间收敛导引律。根据有限时间收敛控制理论,严格证明了系统的有限时间收敛特性;为抑制量测噪声,将传统跟踪微分器进行改进并应用于扩张状态观测器与反演控制的设计中。仿真结果表明:在自动驾驶仪响应延迟情况下,所设计的导引律能够导引导弹在有限时间内精确地拦截高速机动目标;改进的跟踪微分器精度高、响应快;基于改进跟踪微分器的扩张观测器估计效果理想。     

READY,SET, TRACE

Tracing small arms and light weapons has been identified as an important component in reducing the illicit trafficking of weapons to regions of conflict as well as use in violent crime. At the national, regional and international levels policy makers and practitioners are working to make tracing more effective. This article outlines some of the key elements of an effective tracing regime and reviews where areas of agreement currently exist. It concludes with observations on some of the challenges facing countries as they try to implement these systems and respond to the problem of illicit arms trafficking.     

Drones,spies, terrorists,and second-class citizenship in Pakistan

This essay reviews seven recent books and reports that focus upon the use of US armed drones in Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). This essay synthesizes a historical account of the program, critically interrogates key arguments and evidence advanced by the authors, and draws attention the particular problems that confront those who live in the FATA and the second-class citizenship that the Pakistani state has bestowed upon them for reasons of domestic and foreign policy concerns. This review essay does not intend to be the final word on any of the ongoing policy debates. But it does hope to enable a wider audience to take part in these important deliberations.     

Consumer drone evolutions: trends,spaces, temporalities,threats

ABSTRACT

While the drone has become synonymous with the War on Terror, the asymmetric iconography of the battlefield is shifting. Commercially available off-the-shelf (COTS) drones are increasingly prevalent features of global battlefields, employed by non-state actors in both visualising such spaces, and the directing and inflicting of harm. As such usage increases, so too do concerns around their evolving adoption, adaptation, and potential portability into homeland spheres. While cognizant of the range of positive drone applications, it is asserted that drones nonetheless remain simultaneously bound to an inverse potential for exploitation. In examining drone risk, this article approaches the consumer drone through a series of sites and spaces through which it is technically and socially constructed. Reflecting upon industry innovation, community-driven experimentation, and evolving airspace – it calls for greater attention to the drone’s malleability, arguing that understandings of COTS drones must remain attentive to both drone potential and potential drone threat.     

COOPERATION,SIGNALS, AND SANCTIONS

This paper uses game theory and modeling to address the role of incentive structures and information dynamics in nuclear inspections. The traditional argument is that compliant states should be willing to allow inspections to prove their innocence, while proliferating states are likely to impede inspections. This argument does not take into account the historical variation in inspection, signaling, and sanctioning behaviors. Using a game theoretic analysis and model, it is shown that the separation of proliferators from nonproliferators only occurs when the likelihood of proliferation is high and punishment costs are moderate. The model assumes that states can choose how much to cooperate with inspectors and must pay opportunity or secrecy costs when inspections are effective. The results are tested against a set of real-life cases, providing support for the claims of historical variation and the model's deductive propositions.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

效率、公平与公共政策

效率是社会经济发展的重要保证,而公平是衡量人类文明的重要尺度,是维护社会稳定的价值基础。效率与公平是辩证的对立统一,既有矛盾性又有统一性。公共政策的关键就是要协调与整合二者之间的关系,确保既能提高经济效率,又能实现社会公平——借助市场机制达到资源的有效配置,以提高效率;依靠社会主义制度解决财富分配不公,以彰显公平。将效率与公平完美地结合于公共政策之中,是社会主义优越性的充分体现。